Zhang vs. Suarez Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 312
Weili Zhang’s third strawweight title defense goes down in Sydney on Saturday, Australia, as she meets challenger Tatiana Suarez in the co-headliner of UFC 312 at Qudos Bank Arena.
The defending queen’s sophomore reign began with a submission of Carla Esparza at UFC 281 in late 2022. Zhang then retained her strap with a lopsided decision over Amanda Lemos at UFC 292 and another against Yan Xiaonan at UFC 300 this past April, improving to 9-2 in the UFC.
The challenger Suarez ends a lengthy layoff dating back to August 2023. That trip to the cage saw her submit former divisional queen Jessica Andrade. The fifth career tapout brought Suarez to 10-0 as a pro and 7-0 in the Octagon.
Zhang vs. Suarez prediction & best bet for UFC 312
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Fight prediction: Zhang to win (+105 via DraftKings) vs. Suarez ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Zhang by KO/TKO (+330 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Zhang vs. Suarez fight analysis
She may be her division’s best wrestler, but Suarez will be bidding the “0” on her record farewell come fight night.
She’s yet to face an opponent of Zhang’s caliber and will be in for a rough night if she doesn’t earn the champ’s respect early. Suarez has scored multiple takedowns in each of her UFC wins, but she’ll need to set them up with her striking, which is where things get dicey. A dynamo on the feet, Zhang lands 5.66 significant strikes per minute and over half her attempts to Suarez’s 4.27.
She'll have to shuck off some takedown attempts and maybe work her way out of some precarious positions, but Zhang should have enough time to assert herself as the superior striker. Once she does, Suarez’s takedown attempts will grow more transparent and desperate, with the champ bruising her way to a third successful title defense.
Despite Zhang’s shorter layoff and status as reigning queen, our best sports betting sites have anointed Suarez this matchup’s slight favorite, and that remains the case just hours from fight night. DraftKings edges out the pack for the underdog at +105.
Prediction: Zhang to win (+105 via DraftKings) | Implied probability: 48.78%
Zhang vs. Suarez best bet
Those familiar with Zhang know she packs a solid wallop, and she’ll likely be the first to truly test Suarez’s chin in Saturday’s co-headliner.
The defending champ has 11 KO/TKO stoppages to her name, while the challenger has yet to face a striker who’s managed to crack her clean. Provided the strawweight queen stays upright long enough, it won’t be a matter of if, but when her mitts catch Suarez on the kisser, after which the latter will begin to panic-wrestle and leave herself open to a fight-ending salvo.
Like every line available on Zhang, a 12th career knockout offers most tempting value, and FanDuel offers the best value.
Best bet: Zhang by KO/TKO (+330 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 23.26%
Zhang vs. Suarez odds
Odds via DraftKings as of Saturday.
| Zhang | Method of victory | Suarez |
|---|---|---|
| +105 | Win outright | -125 |
| +300 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +700 |
| +275 | Win by unanimous decision | +350 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
Lines on the challenger offer solid value just hours out from UFC 312, but those on Zhang are even more enticing. While a win via strikes is this week’s best bet, a Zhang victory on points is certainly worth your attention at +275 with DraftKings, as the champ has twice defended her crown by unanimous decision.
Zhang vs. Suarez tale of the tape
| Zhang | Suarez | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 34 |
| 5'4" | Height | 5'5" |
| 115 lbs. | Weight | 114.5 lbs |
| 63" | Reach | 66' |
| 25-3 | Record | 10-0 |
UFC 312 expert picks & predictions
- UFC 312 odds and betting lines
- UFC predictions and odds
- Zhang vs. Suarez prediction
- Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 prediction
Zhang vs. Suarez fight info: UFC 312
- When: Saturday, Feb. 8 at 10 p.m. ET (main card start)
- Where: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia
- How to watch: Pay-per-view (main card)
- Favorite: Suarez (-125 via DraftKings)
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