UFC Predictions & Odds: Expert Picks for UFC 309 - Jones vs. Miocic
A pair of MMA luminaries return to action on the biggest stage this Saturday, as Jon Jones defends his heavyweight throne against Stipe Miocic at UFC 309’s headliner at Madison Square Garden.
Our UFC 309 predictions come mere hours before fight night, with Jones and Miocic ending layoffs of 20 months and three-plus years, respectively.
The former is the prohibitive favorite at our best UFC betting sites and most recently claimed the heavyweight crown with a quick submission of Ciryl Gane in his divisional debut at UFC 285 in March 2023, while the latter was last seen losing that same crown to Francis Ngannou by KO at UFC 260 back in early 2021.
Before Saturday’s heavyweight closer, Charles Oliveira meets Michael Chandler in a lightweight rematch. The pair first clashed for the vacant lightweight strap in 2021 at UFC 262, with Oliveira claiming it via second-round TKO.
There are heavy favorites atop the UFC 309 odds, including in our Oliveira vs. Chandler prediction.
UFC predictions & picks: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Jones by KO/TKO vs. Miocic (+135 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Martinez vs. McGhee Under 2.5 Rounds (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jones by KO/TKO or submission (-250) + Oliveira ML vs. Chandler (-258) + Gall by decision vs. Brahimaj (+175) = +434 (via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Miller vs. Jackson doesn’t go the distance (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
UFC 309 expert picks
Jones by KO/TKO vs. Miocic ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +135 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 42.55%
Yes, Jones hasn’t finished a man via strikes since 2018, but he faces a brittle foe on the wrong side of 40, and I like his chances of ending that drought.
Miocic may be a solid boxer, but he’s dropped three of his four losses by KO/TKO and is ending a layoff dating back to early 2021. Such hiatuses aren’t kind to older fighters, and I see Jones riding his 4.5-inch reach advantage to victory here.
The defending heavyweight champ lands 57% of his significant strike attempts and defends over 60% of the opposition’s, so look for him to frustrate Miocic with hand-fighting and distance control before folding him with a nasty salvo or ground-and-pound.
Martinez vs. McGhee Under 2.5 Rounds ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +130 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 43.48%
Jonathan Martinez is not a fast starter, but Marcus McGhee is, and their styles match up well enough for me to go with the Under on their bantamweight clash.
A methodical striker who rarely forces a finish, Martinez still boasts lethal low kicks and nine career wins by KO/TKO, while McGhee has yet to require the judges’ participation in 10 career matchups.
Furthermore, McGhee prefers to keep the action standing as much as Martinez, as he lands a gaudy 5.43 significant strikes per minute and has earned all but one of his nine career wins via strikes.
All this to say, these two bantamweights should regale us with a firefight, and the Under on 2.5 rounds offers a compelling balance between risk and reward at +130.
Jones by KO/TKO or submission (-250) + Oliveira ML vs. Chandler (-258) + Gall by decision vs. Brahimaj (+175) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +434 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 18.73%
In our UFC 309 parlay, we’ve got a double-chance winning method bet on Jones, who boasts a combined 17 stoppages and is equally adept at finishing foes with his striking as he is on the mat, and a straight-up moneyline bet on Oliveira.
Oliveira is the fresher fighter, a prolific finisher, and just the man to make Chandler pay for his recklessness.
Lastly, I’ve got Mickey Gall bouncing back at the expense of Ramiz Brahimaj in a welterweight preliminary bout.
Court McGee and Themba Gorimbo handily outwrestled Brahimaj in his last two losses, and with a slumping Gall fighting for his job, look for him to take a cue from them and grind his way to victory, just as he did at Randy Brown’s expense the last time he fought in New York.
Miller vs. Jackson doesn’t go the distance ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +100 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 50%
With over 45 stoppage victories between them, Jim Miller and Damon Jackson probably won’t need the judges’ help to settle their lightweight dance.
Miller can finish with his mitts and on the mat, while Jackson boasts excellent submission skills but has dropped five of his seven career defeats by stoppage - four by KO/TKO.
Should each man respect the other’s submission skills and stay upright, the advantage will lie with Miller, who packs a solid wallop and isn’t above securing the occasional club-and-sub.
Whether the 41-year-old Miller keeps Father Time at bay or Jackson capitalizes on a transition for a slick submission, this clash of prolific veteran finishers shouldn’t require any scorecards.
UFC expert picks made Saturday at 12 a.m. ET.
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