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Real Madrid vs. Man City Prediction, Expert Pick & Odds Today: Champions League Playoff Round Second Leg

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: February 19, 2025 12:53 PM EST • 3 min read.

Our Real Madrid vs. Man City prediction and expert picks.
Pictured: Vinicius Junior during a La Liga match. Photo by Inigo Alzugaray via Imagn Images.

Real Madrid clawed their way closer to the Round of 16 after knocking off Manchester City 3-2 in Manchester last week.

Now they're seeking to take the last step and bounce City when the club welcomes Pep Guardiola's side to the Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid for Wednesday's Knockout Phase playoff round second leg (3 p.m. ET, Paramount+/DAZN). 

Our Real Madrid vs. Man City prediction and expert picks expect the home favorites to triumph during another tight game, leading to more bitter disappointment during City's tough season. 

Real Madrid vs. Man City predictions

Champions League picks are based on the odds at our best soccer betting sites. Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

  • Real Madrid vs. Man City game pick: Real Madrid ML (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Real Madrid vs. Man City best pick: Vinicius Junior anytime goal (+150 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Who will win Real Madrid vs. Man City?

Real Madrid ML ⭐⭐⭐

Last week, Manchester City failed to get the job at home against a decimated Real Madrid defense. That has put them in the unenviable position of requiring a victory at the Bernabeu, one of the most challenging venues to elicit a result. The Galacticos have lost twice in 17 home encounters in all competitions thus far. 

City have lost three in a row on enemy turf in the Champions League, allowing 10 goals to Sporting Lisbon, Juventus, and PSG. Without Rodri, Pep's squad struggles mightily to disrupt the opposition on quick counters. Unfortunately for City supporters, the game script is conducive to Real Madrid's lethal counter.

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Why will Real Madrid win against Man City? 

City must press forward at some point. They'll likely control much of the play, again playing right into Real Madrid's honeytrap. I expect City to score a goal, but their defense has shown a staggering inability to keep it clean at the back.

Real Madrid probably won't have any of the following senior players available: Dani Carvajal, David Alaba, Antonio Rudiger, and Eder Militao. 

That significant list of absentees didn't prevent them from winning at the Etihad last week.

The triumvirate of Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior, and Rodrygo will again prove too much for City on the break. Ordinarily, I'd think about backing a draw. However, if the match is level down the stretch, City will press forward with reckless abandon, leaving gaping holes for one of the world's most lethal quick-break offenses. 

Expect City, one of the Champions League odds contenders, to make an early exit from the competition. A winning $10 bet will profit $11. 

Best odds: +110 via DraftKings | Implied win probability: 47.62%

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Best Real Madrid vs. Man City pick

Vinicius Junior anytime goal ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +150 via FanDuel | Implied win probability: 40%

Vinicius has netted seven goals in as many Champions League games this season, and he's primed to continue that goal-per-game clip. With speed an F1 team would be envious of, the 24-year-old Brazilian was as dangerous as he was omnipresent in the opening leg in Manchester. 

While Vinicius didn't score, he set up two, including Jude Bellingham's last-gasp winner. He's averaging two shots on target per Champions League contest and will almost assuredly get the City center backs in one-on-one situations when the visitors are forced to become more risk-forward. He should have a few premium opportunities after the interval if he doesn't score early. 

Make sure you lock this one in at FanDuel, offering a better price than the rest of our best sports betting sites. He's trading as short as -105 at bet365, which would yield a $9.52 profit on a $10 wager. 

Meanwhile, a winning $10 bet at FanDuel will profit $15.

Real Madrid vs. Man City odds

See the latest Champions League odds on all of today's other matchups.

When is Real Madrid vs. Man City?

  • When: Wednesday, Feb. 19
  • Time: 3 p.m. ET
  • Location: Santiago Bernabeu Stadium (Madrid)
  • How to watch: DAZN, Paramount+
  • Weather: 55 degrees, 6 mph to 8 mph, 0% precipitation
  • Favorite: Real Madrid (+110 via DraftKings)

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.