Super Bowl First Time Winner Odds: Sportsbooks Favor a Repeat Champion

A dozen current NFL franchises have never won the Super Bowl, but will one of them break through and claim the championship this season? According to odds now posted at one of the top sports betting sites wagering on a first-timer to win the Super Bowl this season has you taking the underdog position.

On the prop wager "Will a first-time winner win Super Bowl LIX" at FanDuel Canada, the No side is the -210 favorite while the Yes side sits as the +164 underdog. Super Bowl LIX will be hosted by the city of New Orleans at the Caesars Superdome on Feb. 9, 2025.

Will a First-Time Winner Win Super Bowl LIX?

(Odds courtesy FanDuel Canada as of Oct. 30 at 9 a.m. ET)

Which 12 teams have never won the Super Bowl?

Of those dozen teams that have never won the Super Bowl, two of them have made it to the big game four times. The Buffalo Bills went to four straight Super Bowl games (Super Bowls XXV, XXVI, XXVII, and XXVIII) and managed to lose each and every one of those contests. The Minnesota Vikings appeared in Super Bowls IV, VIII, IX, and XI, and lost all four of those games - so four defeats over the course of eight Super Bowl games.

The Cincinnati Bengals have advanced to the Super Bowl three times in franchise history, losing each of Super Bowl XVI, XXIII, and LVI, with the Carolina Panthers losing both Super Bowl XXXVIII and Super Bowl L, and the Atlanta Falcons losing both Super Bowl XXXIII and Super Bowl LI. The Tennessee Titans (Super Bowl XXXIV), Arizona Cardinals (Super Bowl XLIII), and Los Angeles/San Diego Chargers (Super Bowl XXIX) all have one Super Bowl appearance (and loss), while none of the Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans or Detroit Lions have advanced as far as the Super Bowl.

How are those teams doing so far this season?

Of the dozen teams that have never won the Super Bowl in franchise history, it's the Lions that currently sit with the best record at 6-1 after they throttled the Titans this past weekend 52-14 to run their winning streak to five games. Detroit, which lost in the NFC Championship Game last season, has scored over 40 points in three of the past four weeks and has a massive +100 points differential over its opponents through seven games.

The Bills and the Texans are both 6-2 on the season and look to have clear paths to winning their respective division titles, while the Vikings are 5-2 but in a battle with the Lions, Packers, and Bears in the tight NFC North divisional race. The 5-3 Falcons sit in first place in the NFC South, while the 4-3 Chargers and the 4-4 Cardinals remain in the playoff picture despite uneven starts to the season by both teams.

The Bengals, however, are in trouble at 3-5 after getting trounced 37-17 by the Eagles this past weekend, and the Jaguars (2-6), Browns (2-6), Titans (1-6), and Panthers (1-7) are most likely done for the year.

Who is standing in the way of a championship?

The 7-0 Kansas City Chiefs have won the Super Bowl in each of the last two seasons and in three of the last five years and sit as the current +450 favorite on the Super Bowl LIX odds at FanDuel Canada. They'd be seen as the biggest obstacle on the road to a Super Bowl championship for the likes of the Lions, Bills, Texans, and Vikings this season.

The 5-3 Baltimore Ravens are just behind the Chiefs on the Super Bowl odds at +650, but they're coming off a big Week 8 upset loss to the Browns to somewhat curb the enthusiasm for their team’s title chances. The San Francisco 49ers made it to the big game last year and are at +750 on the Super Bowl odds right now but have been inconsistent at 4-4 so far this season. And the Ravens and Niners are joined right at the top of the latest NFL futures by the Lions (+650), Bills (+1100), and Texans (+1300).

So the frontrunning Chiefs will be gunning for their third straight Super Bowl championship this season, but history is not on their side as no team has ever accomplished that feat. Therefore, with the Lions and the Bills in particular looking like top championship contenders so far this season, the Texans and the Vikings both impressing as well with their play, and the Ravens and the Niners each showing some flaws in their games, let's go with a first-time Super Bowl winner as the pick for February.

My Pick: Yes (+164)