Groundhog Day Prediction & Odds 2025: Will Punxsutawney Phil See His Shadow?
Spring is just around the corner - at least according to the 2025 Groundhog Day odds and our prediction.
Sunday marks the annual tradition when Americans and Canadians alike turn to their local woodchuck weathermen to predict whether or not we'll endure six more weeks of winter.
None are more famous than Punxsutawney Phil, whose Groundhog Day predictions have captivated audiences at Gobbler's Knob since 1887 - even if he's wrong nearly two-thirds of the time. But he isn't the only rodent of renown with a prognostication on Sunday.
2025 Groundhog Day odds & predictions
According to the official record held by the Groundhog Club, Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow 107 times compared to 21 times he didn't - there are 10 years with missing data, including one year when the celebrity whistle pig simply never showed up.
The soothsaying ground squirrel broke tradition last year when he predicted an early spring ahead of an unseasonably warm February and March. It snapped a streak of three straight years seeing his shadow and came amid the planet's hottest year on record.
While that prediction proved prescient last year, the "seer of seers" has been anything but reliable over the years. He's been right just 35% of the time across the last two decades, according to the NOAA, which ranked him as the least accurate groundhog in America.
A separate study by the Stormfax Weather Almanac, which has vetted every single one of Phil's predictions since 1887, put his success rate at 39% - well below the 100% touted by the Groundhog Club's Inner Circle in defense of its profiteering prophet.
If I was wrong as often as Phil, I surely wouldn't be heralded as the "prognosticator of all prognosticators." Yet here we are 138 years later still celebrating the word of the world's most deceitful marmot, and after he fooled us with last year's Groundhog Day odds, we're determined to stay one step ahead of the immortal groundhog this year.
Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow?
We're still waiting on betting odds for whether Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow this year, but all signs point to him turning another blind eye to his silhouette on Sunday.
The biggest factor is the one that Phil struggles so much to predict: the weather. The latest forecast from the Weather Channel is expecting cloudy skies with temperatures in the upper-20s on Sunday morning with the festivities set to begin shortly after 7 a.m. ET.
That doesn't bode well for Phil's ability to recognize his own shadow, which is already hard enough for a drowsy groundpig shaking off a three-month siesta.
He's also been a much more optimistic rodent as of late, calling for an early spring three times in the last six years and six times in the last 14 years - tied for the most in any 15-year span since he started predicting the future in the 1880s.
Given that Phil and his wife, Phyllis, welcomed two baby chucks into their cozy burrow last March for the first time in 138 years, I'm fully expecting a more benevolent marmot to emerge at Gobbler's Knob on Sunday and summon an early spring. Surely, he won't surprise me this time around.
Prediction: Punxsutawney Phil will NOT see his shadow = early spring
Will Wiarton Willie see his shadow?
For those north of the border, FanDuel Ontario is offering odds on whether Wiarton Willie - Phil's less heralded step-groundhog - will see his shadow on Sunday.
| Will Wiarton Willie see his shadow? | Betting odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | +125 | 44.44% |
| No | -195 | 66.10% |
Canada's foremost furry forecaster predicted an early spring last February for the fourth straight year, which is tied for his longest such streak since the 1980s. The latest betting odds suggest a 66.10% chance that he'll make it five in a row on Sunday, according to our odds converter.
Of course, that doesn't mean you should start packing away your winter coats, as Willie has been even less reliable than his southern counterpart since he started predicting Ontario's weather in 1955. In 2021, a study by University of Waterloo students found his accuracy to be roughly 32%, while others have estimated his hit rate to be as low as 25%.
Fittingly, snow showers are expected all day Sunday in South Bruce Peninsula, which doesn't exactly scream "early spring" - but it could also complicate Willie's ability to find that shadowy woodchuck that always seems to follow him around.
That's why I'm skeptical that he'll change course this time around from what he's done the last four years, even if I don't love laying the short price on the whims of a whistler. If we've learned anything over the last century, it's that you can never trust a groundhog.
Prediction: Wiarton Willie will NOT see his shadow (-195 via FanDuel Ontario)
Groundhog Day FAQ
When is Groundhog Day?
Ground Day is Sunday, Feb. 2.
What does it mean if the groundhog sees his shadow?
If the groundhog sees his shadow, it is interpreted as six more weeks of winter.
What does it mean if the groundhog doesn't see his shadow?
If the goundhog doesn't see his shadow, it's meant as a sign that spring will arrive early.
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