Grammys Best Rap Song Odds: Kendrick Lamar Not Like His Competition
“Not Like Us” is a massive favorite to win Rap Song of the Year at the 67th Annual Grammy Awards. At the time of writing, the song is tied with “Brat” by Charli XCX in the Best Dance/Electronic Album category as the largest favorite in any category at this year’s awards.
Not only is “Not Like Us” expected to win this award, but it’s also making a late surge in other categories such as Song of the Year and Record of the Year. With so much working in its favor, can anything stop “Not Like Us” from winning this award?
The Grammy Awards take place at 8 p.m. ET on
Sunday, Feb. 2, 2025, at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. The event will be
broadcast live on CBS and it will be live streamed and available on demand on
Paramount+; be sure to check out the latest Grammys odds across every major category.
Here's a look at the latest Best Rap Song odds, courtesy FanDuel Canada (updated Jan. 30 at 10 a.m. ET):
Best Rap Song odds
| Song | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Not Like Us (Kendrick Lamar) | -1500 | 93.75% | $0.67 |
| Like That (Future, Metro Boomin and Kendrick Lamar) | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Asteroids (Rapsody ft. Hit Boy) | +1300 | 7.14% | $130 |
| Yeah Glo! (GloRilla) | +3800 | 2.56% | $380 |
| Carnival (Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign) | +4800 | 2.04% | $480 |
Best Rap Song favorite
"Not Like Us," Kendrick Lamar (-1500)
“Not Like Us” is the only song in this category that is also nominated for Record of the Year or Song of the Year. Because of that, it’s not surprising that it currently sits as a massive favorite with -1500 odds. Kendrick Lamar also has the added benefit of playing the Super Bowl halftime show one week after the award ceremony, so he was certainly top-of-mind when voters were casting their ballots.
However, because of the -1500 price tag associated with betting on “Not Like Us”, it may be worth looking elsewhere just in case the most shocking upset of the night happens in this category. After all, if there is one thing that could prevent “Not Like Us” from winning, it’s the fact that Drake, the subject of the diss track, is suing Universal Music Group for defamation for allowing the song to be released. Will the Grammys want to award a song with that type of publicity surrounding it?
Best Rap Song long shots
"Like That", Future, Metro Boomin, and Kendrick Lamar (+1100)
Because of how heavily favored “Not Like Us” is, every other song in this category is a longshot. “Like That” has the second-shortest odds in the category, though the odds are still +1100. What makes this song an enticing choice is the fact that it could serve as a way for Grammy voters to support Kendrick Lamar without getting involved in the Drake drama. Will it win? Probably not. But this is the most reasonable option out of the other four nominees.
"Asteroids," Rapsody ft. Hit Boy (+1300)
At +1300, “Asteroids” is the third-favorite in this category. Rapsody may not be the most recognizable name, but she has a good story. In 2018, she became only the fifth solo woman to be nominated for Rap Album of the Year. If Grammy voters elect to disregard Kendrick Lamar altogether, then Rapsody seems like the likely person to snag the award in this category. However, Rapsody is only up for one other Grammy this year, and it’s not a major category. Therefore, it’s unlikely enough voters favor her over the multi-nominated “Not Like Us.”
"Carnival," Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign (+4800)
If you want to take a stab at the longest shot of the category, then you’ll be backing “Carnival” by Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign. At +4800, the song has some of the worst odds for any nominee in any major category on Grammy night. But Kanye West has won 24 Grammys, and some voters may feel Ty Dolla $ign is overdue, as he still has no Grammy wins. In a category that is unlikely to feature an upset, perhaps taking the biggest upset is the best way to create some sort of value.
My Pick
I tried to make an argument for the other songs in this category, but it would be the most shocking moment of the night if “Not Like Us” doesn’t win. The song has all the momentum, and despite Drake’s lawsuit, final-round voting for this year’s Grammys ended on Jan. 3, so it’s unlikely that any voters were swayed by Drake’s late action against Universal Music Group.
My Pick: "Not Like Us", Kendrick Lamar (-1500)
2025 Grammys betting odds & predictions
- Grammys betting predictions
- Grammys odds
- Grammys Best New Artist odds
- Grammys Best Rap Song odds
- Grammys Album of the Year odds
- Grammys Song of the Year odds
Grammy Awards FAQs
When will the 2024 Grammy Awards take place?
The Grammy Awards will take place on Sunday, Feb. 2, 2025, at 8 p.m. ET.
Where are the Grammy Awards held?
The Grammys will be held at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
Who will host the Grammy Awards?
No host has been announced for the Grammys at this time.
How can I watch the Grammy Awards?
The Grammys will air live on CBS, and they will stream on Paramount+. They can also be found on demand on Paramount+.
Related Articles
