CMA Awards Predictions, Odds 2025: Chris Stapleton, Lainey Wilson Lead the Way
Chris Stapleton's custom-designed Ram Heavy Duty Traveller is a thing of beauty – and on Nov. 20, it's going to be carrying a whole lot of precious cargo.
The country music mega-star is a hefty favorite to clean up at the 58th Country Music Association Awards, held at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn. Stapleton is the No. 1 option across several major markets, including Song of the Year, Album of the Year, and Male Vocalist of the Year.
While most our best sports betting sites won't carry these markets, you can find them at FanDuel Canada. And the odds paint a picture of a man whose transcendent album Higher has outpaced the competition as he looks to win the Male Vocalist award for a record eighth time (and fourth in a row, which will mark the second time he has achieved the feat).
Here's a look at the latest CMA Awards odds (updated Tuesday, Nov. 19 at 8 a.m. ET):
Country Music Association Awards odds
Song of the Year
| Song | Artist | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| "White Horse" | Chris Stapleton | -320 | 76.19% |
| "I Had Some Help" | Post Malone (ft. Morgan Wallen) | +430 | 18.87% |
| "The Painter" | Cody Johnson | +750 | 11.76% |
| "Dirt Cheap" | Cody Johnson | +1100 | 8.25% |
| "Burn it Down" | Parker McCollum | +1400 | 6.67% |
The lead song from Higher has already seen plenty of critical and commercial success, earning Stapleton a pair of Grammy Awards (Best Country Solo Performance, Best Country Song). "I Had Some Help" is a solid No. 2 choice as it took home Song of the Year honors at the 2024 People's Choice Country Awards, while "The Painter" reached No. 1 in the U.S., Canada and the United Kingdom, But this trophy is Stapleton's to lose – and I'm supremely confident he won't.
My Pick: "White Horse" (-320) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Male Vocalist of the Year
| Artist | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Stapleton | -250 | 71.43% | $4 |
| Jelly Roll | +270 | 27.03% | $27 |
| Luke Combs | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Cody Johnson | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Morgan Wallen | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
I'm actually surprised that Stapleton isn't a bigger favorite here. Granted, Jelly Roll's emergence as a country music star has left a massive positive impression on the industry, but Stapleton's Higher has already filled up his trophy case – and given his ownership of this category with less-acclaimed releases, it's hard to imagine him not extending his dominance later this month.
My Pick: Chris Stapleton (-250) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Female Vocalist of the Year
| Artist | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lainey Wilson | -320 | 76.19% | $3.13 |
| Megan Moroney | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| Kelsea Ballerini | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
| Kacey Musgraves | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Ashley McBryde | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
Lainey Wilson has been a country music tour de force since emerging on the national scene at the start of the decade. She has 14 major victories since 2021, including the Grammy Award for Best Country Album for Bell Bottom Country earlier this year. This category is shaping up to be even more anti-climactic than the Male Vocalist of the Year award. Don't get cute. Lainey's the pick here.
My Pick: Lainey Wilson (-320) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Single of the Year
| Song | Artist | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| "White Horse" | Chris Stapleton | -430 | 81.13% |
| "Watermelon Moonshine" | Lainey Wilson | +300 | 25.00% |
| "A Bar Song / Tipsy" | Shaboozey | +750 | 11.76% |
| "I Had Some Help" | Post Malone (ft. Morgan Wallen) | +750 | 11.76% |
| "Dirt Cheap" | Cody Johnson | +1100 | 8.33% |
All of the reasons I'm leaning toward Stapleton for Song of the Year apply here, as well. This award is handed out to the singer and production team while Song of the Year goes to the songwriter, but with Stapleton having done both, the choice is a simple one. With respect to the rest of the entries on the list, "White Horse" is the single to beat.
My Pick: "White Horse" (-430) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
New Artist of the Year
| Artist | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Moroney | -430 | 81.13% | $2.33 |
| Nate Smith | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
| Shaboozey | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Bailey Zimmerman | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Mitchell Tenpenny | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Zach Top | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
I know we're eating a ton of chalk in this feature, but I can't get away from Moroney. "New Artist of the Year" is the most controversial category simply because we're not quite sure how the CMA classifies an artist as "new"; Moroney's debut album was released in 2022, and she was the runner-up for this honor at the 2023 Academy of Country Music Awards before winning it a year later. Nate Smith and Shaboozey are strong candidates, but sadly, they're probably "too new" to win.
My Pick: Megan Moroney (-430) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Vocal Duo of the Year
| Duo | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan + Shay | -320 | 76.19% | $3.13 |
| Brothers Osborne | +600 | 14.28% | $60 |
| The War and Treaty | +900 | 10.00% | $90 |
| Maddie & Tae | +1500 | 6.25% | $150 |
| Brooks & Dunn | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
Some country acts carry more awards show currency than others – and Dan + Shay top that list among vocal duos. They return to the top of the odds board despite not having won this award since 2020 (despite winning a Grammy Award in between) – and with their successful 2023 release Bigger Houses setting up a well-received 2024 tour (their first the 2020-21 Arena Tour), it's easy to see why the universally beloved pair is set up to win this one going away.
My Pick: Dan + Shay (-320) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Vocal Group of the Year
| Group | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion | -700 | 87.50% | $1.43 |
| Lady A | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Little Big Town | +1300 | 7.14% | $130 |
| The Red Clay Strays | +1500 | 6.25% | $150 |
| Zac Brown Band | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
Finally! I'm dodging massive chalk in this category, because I believe in the momentum The Red Clay Strays built in 2024.
The Mobile, Ala., quintet has quickly gone from social media sensation to mainstream country music fixture on the strength of their viral hit "Wondering Why", which became their first song to hit the Billboard charts. Headlining their own tour, opening for the Rolling Stones and releasing their second studio album (Made by These Moments) over the summer has these Delta Blues masters squarely in the spotlight – and that matters a lot.
My Pick: The Red Clay Strays (+1500) ⭐⭐⭐
Album of the Year
| Album | Artist | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whitsitt Chapel | Jelly Roll | -125 | 55.56% |
| Higher | Chris Stapleton | +130 | 43.48% |
| Fathers & Sons | Luke Combs | +750 | 11.76% |
| Deeper Well | Kasey Musgraves | +1100 | 8.25% |
| Leather | Cody Johnson | +1900 | 5.00% |
Oddsmakers believe the selection committee might very well decide to go in a different direction (i.e., away from a Stapleton landslide), with Jelly Roll the new favorite here after being the No. 2 choice in the opening odds. Whitsitt Chapel was released to widespread praise in June 2023, and Jelly (real name: Jason DeFord) has maintained a strong public presence in 2024. I would like him a lot here – you know, if it weren't for Stapleton. And we're getting great value on Higher.
My Pick: Higher (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Entertainer of the Year
| Artist | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Stapleton | -160 | 61.54% | $6.25 |
| Lainey Wilson | +300 | 25.00% | $30 |
| Luke Combs | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| Jelly Roll | +1300 | 7.14% | $130 |
| Morgan Wallen | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
With respect to Stapleton, Wilson is the defending Entertainer of the Year – and we know how much the CMA likes rewarding artists for high-level consistency. Wilson has had a Whirlwind stretch (pun initially not intended but left in anyhow), between the release of her latest studio album (to overwhelmingly positive reviews) to her numerous notable collaborations to her Grammy for Bell Bottom Country. Her star has never been brighter – and despite being in a category full of supremely talented people, she is a great choice to defend her title.
My Pick: Lainey Wilson (+300) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Country Music Association Awards FAQs
When will the 2024 CMA Awards take place?
The CMA Awards will take place on Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET.
Where are the CMA Awards held?
The Grammys will be held at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee.
Who will host the CMA Awards?
Country music stars Lainey Wilson and Luke Bryan and NFL Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning will host the awards show.
How can I watch the CMA Awards?
The Grammys will air live on ABC and stream live on Hulu.
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