USA vs. Finland Prediction, Picks & Odds Tonight: 4 Nations Face-Off Preview
Team USA kicks off its 4 Nations Face-Off campaign with a showdown against Finland at Bell Centre in Montreal tonight at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN).
USA enters as a heavy favorite in the 4 Nations Face-Off odds, while Finland faces an uphill battle as the tournament’s most outmatched squad. Already underdogs, the Finns are further hampered by key injuries on defense, making their challenge even steeper.
With starting goaltenders confirmed, we break down our USA vs. Finland prediction and picks for what’s expected to be a low-scoring contest.
Who are the starting goaltenders for USA vs. Finland?
- USA: Connor Hellebuyck
- 2024-25 stats with Winnipeg Jets: 34-7-2, 2.07 GAA, .925 SV%, 6 SO
- Finland: Juuse Saros
- 2024-25 stats with Nashville Predators: 11-23-6, 2.96 GAA, .899 SV%, 4 SO
USA vs. Finland predictions for Thursday
Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- USA vs. Finland game pick: USA -1.5 (-120 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- USA vs. Finland Over/Under pick: Under 5.5 goals (+100 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Who will win USA vs. Finland?
USA -1.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Finland was already the David in this tournament before Jani Hakanpaa, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Miro Heiskanen were ruled out through injury. Pitting their rosters against one another is like comparing the depth in a kiddie's splash-around pool to one that features Olympic 10-meter diving.
While these highly passionate contests aren't played on paper, I feel there's too much of a class disparity for the Finns to overcome. I don't think the USA will blow them out of the water, with a 4-1 final — the last goal being an empty-net insurance marker — my most probable outcome.
The USA is stacked throughout their enviable lineup, especially in goal, which I outlined in my early 4 Nations Face-Off predictions.
I have no doubt Finland's defense will make life difficult. Still, there's only so long you can prevent what should be a relentless attacking barrage from the likes of Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes, Matthew Tkachuk, Jack Eichel, Kyle Conner, Brady Tkachuk, and company.
I dig more into what I expect out of some of those players in my USA vs. Finland player props.
A winning $10 bet will profit $8.33.
Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%
Terms and conditions apply.
What will be the score of USA vs. Finland?
Under 5.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐
How does Juuse Saros vs. Connor Hellebuyck sound for Exhibit A?
Two of the best netminders over the last decade will backstop their respective teams, with Hellebuyck the runaway Vezina Trophy odds favorite again.
While the Finns have enough offensive firepower to concern the USA, Mike Sullivan's team should dictate play enough to keep Finland's high-danger chances at a minimum.
I like the chances of Hellebuyck saving pretty much anything he sees. And then there are the Finns, who will do their utmost to prevent the Americans from showcasing their high-octane, All-Star-like offense.
They'll collapse deep, trying to force the USA to take perimeter shots. While the favorites should dominate the shot total, Saros will most likely be at his all-world best while donning his nation's colors.
I like Under 5.5 goals at even money, which will profit $10 on a winning $10 bet.
Best odds: +100 via Betway | Implied probability: 50%
USA vs. Finland odds
Odds via Betway.
| Market | USA | Finland |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -330 | +220 |
| Puck line | -1.5 (-120) | +1.5 (-120) |
| Over/Under | Over 5.5 (-120) | Under 5.5 (+100) |
USA vs. Finland rosters
Here are the rosters for Thursday's 4 Nations Face-Off USA vs. Finland matchup.
| USA | Finland |
|---|---|
| Matt Boldy | Sebastian Aho |
| Kyle Connor | Joel Armia |
| Jack Eichel | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jake Guentzel | Mikael Granlund |
| Jack Hughes | Erik Haula |
| Chris Kreider | Roope Hintz |
| Dylan Larkin | Kaapo Kakko |
| Auston Matthews | Patrik Laine |
| J.T. Miller | Artturi Lehkonen |
| Brock Nelson | Anton Lundell |
| Matthew Tkachuk | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Brady Tkachuk | Mikko Rantanen |
| Vincent Trocheck | Teuvo Teravainen |
| Brock Faber | Esa Lindell |
| Adam Fox | Olli Maataa |
| Noah Hanifin | Niko Mikkola |
| Charlie McAvoy | Nikolas Matinpalo |
| Jaccob Slavin | Juuso Valimaki |
| Zach Werenski | Henri Jokiharju |
| Jake Sanderson | Urho Vaakanainen |
| Connor Hellebuyck | Kevin Lankinen |
| Jake Oettinger | Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen |
| Jeremy Swayman | Juuse Saros |
When is USA vs. Finland?
- When: Thursday, Feb. 13
- Puck drop: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Bell Centre (Montreal, Que.)
- How to watch: ESPN, Sportsnet
- Favorite: USA (-330 via Betway)
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