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USA vs. Finland Player Prop Picks & Odds: Best 4 Nations Face-Off Bets for Tonight

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: February 13, 2025 5:11 PM EST • 2 min 63 sec read.

We're backing Matthews in our USA vs. Finland player prop picks.
Pictured: Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews breaks his stick as he attempts on a shot against the Calgary Flames. Photo by Sergei Belski via Imagn Images.

USA and Finland take center stage tonight in the second matchup of the 4 Nations Face-Off, with puck drop set for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Bell Centre in Montreal.

Despite not yet playing a game, Team USA has become the tournament favorite in the 4 Nations Face-Off odds after Canada surrendered a point in a 4-3 overtime win against Sweden.

Our USA vs. Finland player prop picks and odds focus on linemates contributing at least one goal while backing Matthew Tkachuk to test Juuse Saros with three or more shots in what should be an exciting battle.

USA vs. Finland player prop picks for tonight

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

  • My best player prop pick: Matthew Tkachuk Over 2.5 shots (+110 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Jack Hughes player prop pick: Over 0.5 assists (+140 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Auston Matthews player prop pick: Anytime goal (+130 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best player prop pick for USA vs. Finland

Matthew Tkachuk Over 2.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Since the calendar turned to February, something lit a fire under Tkachuk's hind parts.

While I can only postulate, I wouldn't be surprised if it had something to do with knowing the 4 Nations Face-Off was on the horizon. Tkachuk is one of the most fierce competitors on the team, rivaled by his irascible and bearish younger brother. 

He fired at least three shots on goal in four of the last five games with the Florida Panthers. In those four Over successes, Tkachuk averaged 6.5 shots per game. He's playing alongside Jack Eichel and Kyle Connor on line 1A, the latter of whom is one of the league's best setup men. Tkachuk will be in the mood on Thursday, galvanized by wearing the Red, White, and Blue.

Plus, I expect the Americans to dictate proceedings, which should relate to an increased shot total. A winning $10 bet will profit $11. I wouldn't be surprised to see him light the lamp, too. Either way, he'll be an influential reason the Americans win, which I covered in our USA vs. Finland prediction. 

Best odds: +110 via Betway | Implied probability: 47.62%

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USA vs. Finland player props

Jack Hughes Over 0.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Hughes has 41 assists in 57 games for the New Jersey Devils. At this tournament, he's playing on a line with Auston Matthews and Jake Guentzel. Matthews is the go-to triggerman on the line, but Guentzel is no goal-scoring slouch. He has 27 goals through 54 games in his first season with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

If my simple arithmetic is correct, that's 0.5 goals per game.

While Hughes isn't enjoying his best run with the Devils, amassing just three assists in the last six games, tomorrow's game against the Finns represents an entirely different kettle of fish. With two of the best snipers by his side, Hughes will be able to create the magic he's renowned for. 

I love the plus-money odds on this wager, and a winning $10 bet will profit $14. 

Best odds: +140 via Betway | Implied probability: 41.67%

Auston Matthews anytime goal ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Auston Matthews was born for this type of best-on-best tournament. And having the "C" slapped on his shirt should buoy the 27-year-old. Matthews is part of a formidable first power play unit alongside Eichel, Tkachuk, Guentzel, and Adam Fox.

He hasn't scored in six games for the Maple Leafs, so he's overdue. That's an ominous prospect for an injury-decimated Finnish defensive corps.

Matthews tends to be a streaky goalscorer, so if he lights the lamp in the opener, look for the dam to burst. He netted 10 goals in the 11 games before his current barren patch. A winning $10 bet will profit $13. 

Best odds: +130 via Betway | Implied probability: 43.48%

USA vs. Finland odds

Odds via Betway.

MarketUSAFinland
Moneyline-330+220
Puck line-1.5 (-135)+1.5 (-120)
Over/UnderOver 5.5 (-130)Under 5.5 (+110)

When is USA vs. Finland?

  • When: Thursday, Feb. 13
  • Puck drop: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Bell Centre (Montreal)
  • How to watch: ESPN, Sportsnet
  • Favorite: USA (-330 via Betway)

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.