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Senators vs. Maple Leafs Game 1 Prediction, Expert Picks & NHL Odds: Best Bets & Player Props for April 20

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: April 20, 2025 6:54 AM EDT • 4 min 33 sec read.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs Game 1 prediction, expert picks.
Pictured: Toronto Maple Leafs right wing William Nylander takes a shot on goal. Photo by Timothy T. Ludwig via Imagn Images

It's the first-round series people wanted, and it's probably the matchup the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs desired, too.

The puck will drop on the first Battle of Ontario in 21 years when the Maple Leafs and Senators square off tonight at Scotiabank Arena (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2). 

Our Senators vs. Maple Leafs prediction and NHL picks give the home team a slight advantage due to their recent outstanding patch on home ice while expecting superb goaltending from both sides.

👉 For more playoff predictions and expert picks, check out: Stanley Cup Predictions and odds

📺 Game info & where to watch Senators vs. Maple Leafs live today

📅 Date: Sunday, April 20 
🕗 Time: 7 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)
📺 TV: Sportsnet, CBC, ESPN2
💻 Streaming: ESPN+, Sportsnet+

📊 Senators vs. Maple Leafs stats: Records, trends & best odds

📈 For full team stats and betting line history, follow our Senators vs. Maple Leafs matchup page. 

💡 Senators vs. Maple Leafs Game 1 prediction & expert picks

🎯 Score prediction: Maple Leafs 3, Senators 1

The Maple Leafs finished the season with a league-best 13-2-2 stretch and will enter the playoffs against their regular-season bogey team bursting with confidence. The Sens outscored the Maple Leafs 9-3 in the three-game season sweep and had the third-best record (15-5-2) since March 5. 

While both teams won't be short of self-belief, I give the Game 1 advantage to the Maple Leafs, who culminated the campaign with seven straight victories at Scotiabank Arena. The -156 odds at FanDuel don't offer much value, with a winning $10 bet profiting just $6.51, so I'm focusing my attention on Under 5.5 goals. 

💰 Senators vs. Maple Leafs Game 1 best bet: Under 5.5 goals (-110 via FanDuel)

Two of three regular-season meetings ended with five goals or fewer, with the exclusion going Over due to Michael Amadio's empty-net goal. Down the stretch, the Maple Leafs played stingy defense at home, resembling their early-season selves at Scotiabank Arena. In their seven-game win streak to end the season, they allowed a league-best 1.43 goals per game. It was quintessential Craig Berube hockey, which will be ramped up even more in the postseason. 

Anthony Stolarz's stingy stats 

Stolarz, the confirmed Game 1 starter, has been almost impenetrable in his last nine starts. Winning eight of nine, he posted a .943 save percentage and a 1.55 goals-against average (GAA). That stingy streak is just part of his sterling resume, with the Maple Leafs' No. 1 also thriving on home ice.

In his 19 home games, a lower total due to his midseason injury, Stolarz sported the fifth-best save percentage (.932) on home ice and the third-best GAA (1.86). His last four games at Scotiabank Arena were even better, with Stolarz registering two shutouts, a .940 save percentage, and a 1.41 GAA. 

Linus Ullmark's success against the Maple Leafs 

While Ullmark hasn't been as good on the road this season, his two starts in Toronto went exceptionally well. He shut out the Maple Leafs 3-0 in November, turning aside 27 shots and finishing with a spectacular 3.78 goals saved above expected. While his second start was much quieter, he finished with a respectable 0.5 goals saved above expected, allowing two goals on 23 shots. 

Most of our best sports betting sites offer -110 for the Under, which would profit $9.09 on a winning $10 bet. 

👉 Check out our guide on how to bet on the NHL.

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🥅 Best Senators vs. Maple Leafs Game 1 player props & same-game parlay

🔎 Our NEW NHL player prop odds tool can help you find the best NHL odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!

🚨 William Nylander Over 2.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Nylander had at least three shots in his last four playoff contests, and he is a shooting machine against the Senators, hitting the Over in seven straight meetings.

The 2.5-shot total is conducive to an Over, as the Maple Leafs' top goal scorer from the regular season will be looking to create a spark early and often. You can lock it in at BetMGM, whose -130 odds would yield a $7.69 profit on a $10 bet. 

🔢 William Nylander player prop bet odds

🚨 Auston Matthews Over 0.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It's the time of year when Matthews must shine for the Maple Leafs to get past the Senators. He finished the season with 45 assists, one short of his career-best despite missing 14 games through injury. Matthews hasn't had a lot of success against the Senators lately, but still managed two helpers in the previous four meetings.  

The Maple Leafs captain posted two assists in his last two playoff encounters, and I expect a spirited display on Sunday. A few of our best sports betting apps offer -105 odds, implying a 51.22% probability.  

🔢 Auston Matthews player prop bet odds 

🚨 Tim Stutzle Over 0.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

Stutzle finished the season on a tear, scoring seven points in his last three games. He's even more prolific against the Maple Leafs, whom he has at least one point against in six of the previous seven contests, amassing nine points in that stretch. FanDuel offers -138 odds, the longest of our best sportsbooks. A winning $10 bet will profit $7.25, and it's only a three-star play with the limited overall offense I expect from the visitors in the opener.   

🔢 Tim Stutzle player prop bet odds

🚀 Best Senators vs. Maple Leafs parlay picks & SGP odds

🧪 Want to make your own SGP? Check out our NEW parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay.

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🔢 Best Senators vs. Maple Leafs odds & betting lines

🛒 Shop around for the best Senators vs. Maple Leafs odds from our best sports betting apps.

📡 Senators vs. Maple Leafs live odds

🛜 Game already started? You can still get in on the action with our best live betting sites.

🪧 Senators vs. Maple Leafs opening odds

Opening odds via BetMGM.

  • Puck line: Senators +1.5 (-200) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+155)
  • Moneyline: Senators +130 | Maple Leafs -160
  • Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-110) | Under 5.5 (-110)

🚑 Senators vs. Maple Leafs injury report

🗳️ Who will win Senators vs. Maple Leafs?

🧠 Stanley Cup predictions, expert picks 

🥅 Best NHL betting sites

Looking to bet on the NHL? Here are our best NHL betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos ahead of the game.

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.