Calder Trophy Odds 2025: Michkov the Favorite, Stankoven in Prime Position To Pounce
Philadelphia Flyers rookie Matvei Michkov has done what many expected in the first month as a pro in the NHL. The only player trading at minus-money at most of our best NHL betting sites, Michkov is the consensus Calder Trophy odds favorite.
However, while his implied probability is at least 50%, Logan Stankoven is lurking close behind and has arguably played better to start the campaign. He's trading at +200 and has been our player to watch since before preseason.
While Michkov's stats are impressive, the Flyers have been grounded since the season started, winning just four of their opening 13 contests. Head coach John Tortorella made a decision regarding Michkov, which is drawing much media attention. But more on that later.
Meanwhile, the San Jose Sharks' No. 1 draft pick returned to action after missing 12 games with a hip injury, and Macklin Celebrini is still the third-biggest favorite despite playing just two games.
Calder Trophy odds 2024-25
Here are the latest Calder Trophy notes:
- Lane Hutson has been one of the most impressive rookies. The Montreal Canadiens defenseman has seven points in 13 games
- Stankoven's Stars are getting the best Stanley Cup odds of the five favorites
- Watch out for Justus Annunen, who was thrown into the net in Colorado after Alexandar Georgiev's woeful start. He has taken the lead role and has won five of seven games
- Dustin Wolf, the only other goaltender among the 10 favorites, has enjoyed a solid start, going 4-2-0 with a 2.99 goals-against average and a .908 save percentage
Calder Trophy favorites 2024-25
Matvei Michkov (-105)
Torts said it's all part of the process. Either way, it should serve as a learning lesson for the 19-year-old Russian, who looks the part offensively and throws his weight around like a mack-10 truck.
That said, Michkov is minus-8 through 13 games and has scored seven of his 10 points on the power play. He must contribute more 5-on-5 in both ends of the rink to gain Tortorella's trust and become a more influential player.
At the moment, his odds are way too short based on all factors of his game. While he's clearly one of the Calder Trophy odds front-runners, you might want to hold off before locking him in as your pick.
Best odds: +100 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 50%
My 2025 Calder Trophy player to watch
Logan Stankoven (+200)
The more I watch Stankoven, the more pleased I am that I locked him in as my Calder Trophy winner while his odds were still trading at +600.
Since then, they've moved to +200 at most of our best sports betting sites. You can get the +210 price at Caesars and bet365.
Stankoven is tied with Michkov atop the rookie scoring chart. He has 10 points (1 goal and nine assists) and a plus-minus rating of +2. He has seven even-strength points and three on the power play, the opposite of fellow favorite Michkov.
I'm a Stankoven proponent because of his well-rounded game. Plus, he already has a deep Stanley Cup playoff run under his belt. While this award is often handed to the most prolific rookie scorer, I believe Stankoven can keep pace with Michkov and Co. and do a better job of checking the other boxes.
Right now, a winning $10 bet will yield a $21 profit.
Best odds: +210 via Caesars | Implied probability: 32.26%
Caesars is a 21+ product
How to bet on Calder Trophy futures odds
There are a few essential tips to keep in mind before locking in your Calder Trophy futures picks, including:
Playing time: Make sure the player you're backing will be a consistent on-ice presence. While there's heaps of merit in picking a potentially excellent rookie who plays for a bonafide contender, like Stankoven, it's crucial to ensure they'll log consistent minutes.
How good is the team they play for? While some rookies are so elite that the team they play for is inconsequential, like Bedard in Chicago, not all players are part of that rarified air. Unless they are all but guaranteed to score points, don't jump in too fast on high draft picks playing for terrible teams. That said, at least you'll know they will get a ton of ice time.
Will they be the star of the show? No. 1 pick Celebrini will invariably be the star of the show in San Jose, making him an excellent Calder Trophy pick.
The same can be said for Wolf, who should be the No. 1 netminder in Calgary for the 2024-25 season. He'll have the platform to prove himself, with many eyes judging his every move. While that can go one of two ways, Wolf will be the architect of his own Calder Trophy destiny.
Second-year players that qualify: Stankoven played 24 games last year for the Stars, one under the 25-game threshold permitted to be eligible for the Calder Trophy.
That makes him arguably the best candidate for the 2024-25 award. He was outstanding in the Stars' Western Conference Final run and has a leg up on the other "rookies."
College or international experience: More mature players who have roughed it up in other professional leagues worldwide, like Michkov, with 91 games in the KHL under his belt, have an advantage over other rookies entering the NHL directly from the juniors.
The same can be said, though not quite to the same extent, for players who've spent a few years in the college ranks. Just make sure they'll be on the roster come training camp.
Position-based picks: Like the Hart Trophy, the Calder Trophy is often handed out to offensive-minded players who entertain and consistently produce on the scoresheet. A goaltender last won the award in 2008-09, while only three of the previous 11 winners were defensemen.
Calder Trophy odds over time
Latest odds via DraftKings
| Player | July 1 (opening odds) | July 24 | Nov. 7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matvei Michkov | +500 | +450 | +100 |
| Macklin Celebrini | +500 | +500 | +700 |
| Cutter Gauthier | +600 | +650 | +3000 |
| Will Smith | +600 | +700 | +3500 |
| Logan Stankoven | +600 | +550 | +200 |
| Dustin Wolf | +1000 | +1000 | +1800 |
| Lane Hutson | +1000 | +1000 | +1400 |
| Yaroslav Askarov | +4000 | +5000 | +7500 |
| Mavrik Bourque | +4000 | +3000 | +7500 |
| Jesper Wallstedt | +4000 | +3500 | +7500 |
| Fabian Lysell | +5000 | +5000 | +10000 |
| Liam Ohgren | +5000 | +7500 | OFF |
| Gavin Brindley | +7500 | +7500 | +10000 |
Calder Trophy past winners
Bedard ran away with last season's Calder Trophy race, with some sportsbooks closing the market fairly early. The 2024-25 campaign is shaping up to be a neck-and-neck race among the lead candidates.
| Year | Player | Position | Team | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Connor Bedard | C | Chicago Blackhawks | -135 |
| 2022-23 | Matty Beniers | C | Seattle Kraken | +400 |
| 2021-22 | Moritz Seider | D | Detroit Red Wings | +1200 |
| 2020-21 | Kirill Kaprizov | LW | Minnesota Wild | +400 |
| 2019-20 | Cale Makar | D | Colorado Avalanche | +400 |
| 2018-19 | Elias Pettersson | C | Vancouver Canucks | +240 |
| 2017-18 | Mathew Barzal | C | New York Islanders | +1800 |
| 2016-17 | Auston Matthews | C | Toronto Maple Leafs | -130 |
| 2015-16 | Artemi Panarin | LW | Chicago Blackhawks | +2200 |
| 2014-15 | Aaron Ekblad | D | Florida Panthers | +700 |
| 2013-14 | Nathan MacKinnon | C | Colorado Avalanche | N/A |
Calder Trophy FAQ
Who is the Calder Trophy favorite?
Philadelphia Flyers winger Matvei Michkov is the 2024-25 Calder Trophy odds favorite, trading at -105. Those odds represent an implied win probability of 51.22%, according to our odds calculator.
Who won the Calder Trophy last year?
Chicago Blackhawks center Connor Bedard won last yerar's Calder Trophy after accruing 22 goals and 61 points over 68 games.
When will the Calder Trophy be decided?
Votes from the Professional Hockey Writers' Association must be filed before the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin. Last year's Calder Trophy was announced at the NHL Awards ceremony on June 27.
How many No. 1 draft picks have won the Calder Trophy?
Thirteen No. 1 draft picks have won the Calder Trophy, including Bedard, Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, Mario Lemieux, Nathan MacKinnon, Patrick Kane, Alexander Ovechkin, Aaron Ekblad, Gilbert Perreault, Denis Potvin, Dale Hawerchuk, Bobby Smith, and Bryan Berard.
When did a goaltender last win the Calder Trophy?
Steve Mason was the last goaltender to win the Calder Trophy. He secured the honor with the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2008-09.
How many goaltenders have won the Calder Trophy?
Sixteen goaltenders have won the Calder Trophy but only three since 2000 (Mason, Andrew Raycroft, Evgeni Nabokov).
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