Alex Ovechkin Goals Record Odds: When Will the Great 8 Pass the Great One?
Every goal moves Alex Ovechkin closer to breaking the NHL's all-time record – and he's now within shouting distance of a mark once thought unreachable.
Ovechkin enters an extended break with 879 career regular-season goals, leaving him just 16 away from breaking Wayne Gretzky's all-time record. But with just over two months left in the NHL's regular season, does The Great 8 have enough time to get it done before the playoffs? Or will he have to wait until 2025-26? Our best sports betting sites have odds, of course!
Here's a look at the FanDuel Canada offerings on Alex Ovechkin's chase for the all-time NHL goals record.
Will Ovechkin score today?
Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals earn a well-deserved rest with the NHL on break for the 4 Nations Face-Off; here's a look at Ovi's latest futures odds for major awards and milestones:
Will Alex Ovechkin break the NHL's all-time goals record this season?
| Outcome | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | -260 | 72.22% | $3.85 |
| Yes | +190 | 34.48% | $19 |
Ovechkin saw his four-game goal-scoring streak snapped in a 5-4 shootout loss to the Utah Hockey Club in the final game before the break (though he did have three assists, which is worth a hat tip). That lifted his odds of breaking the record back to +190 after he had seen major gains there following each of his previous four games.
Ovechkin now has 26 goals in 39 games, putting him squarely on pace to break the mark this season. And with the Capitals cruising to an early playoff clinch, you can expect the team to prioritize getting Ovechkin as many opportunities as possible where it makes sense. More ice time (particularly on the power play) could be coming.
Granted, Ovechkin's 18.4 shooting percentage is the highest of his career, which might lead some to believe his current pace is unsustainable. But I would counter that with the reality that Ovi and the Capitals would love to have him break the record this season – and they can put mechanisms in place to increase the chances. I like him to do it in the latter stages of the season.
My Pick: Yes (+150)
Method of Alex Ovechkin's record-breaking goal
| Method | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Even strength goal | -220 | 68.75% | $4.55 |
| Power play goal | +150 | 40.00% | $15 |
| Shorthanded goal | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
This is a tricky one, because the Power play goal market is criminally underpriced relative to Ovechkin's career trends.
Entering the 4 Nations Face-Off break, 318 of Ovi's 879 goals have come with the man advantage; that's good for a 36.2% share. And FanDuel has done the math: The implied probability of Ovechkin breaking the record with an even-strength goal is virtually identical to his career even-strength goal percentage (68.73%).
Vig has throttled the value on the PP goal play, which should be closer to +210. It's tempting to play it anyhow, but I have to go with the even strength goal as the price is more reflective of the actual odds of it happening. (And come on with the SH goal market. The man has one shorty in his career!)
My Pick: Even strength goal (-220)
Will Alex Ovechkin's record-breaking goal be an empty-netter?
| Outcome | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
I get it: Ovechkin scores a lot of empty net goals. In fact, no player in NHL history has slid, fired, or otherwise guided more pucks into unprotected cages than The Great 8.
Still, the overwhelming majority of Ovechkin's goals have come with a netminder in his way. And as you can see, my bet choices are based on a narrative that simply doesn't support Ovi firing No. 895 into a gaping net. The window of opportunity to score the record-breaking goal this way is just too narrow.
There's no current market for the "No" option here (wyd FanDuel), but if and when there is, that'll be my play.
NHL all-time goal scoring leaders
| Player | Years Active | Games | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gretzky | 1979-99 | 1,487 | 894 |
| Alex Ovechkin* | 2005-present | 1,465 | 879 |
| Gordie Howe | 1946-80 | 1,767 | 801 |
| Jaromir Jagr | 1990-2018 | 1,733 | 766 |
| Brett Hull | 1986-2005 | 1,269 | 741 |
| Marcel Dionne | 1971-88 | 1,348 | 731 |
| Phil Esposito | 1963-81 | 1,282 | 717 |
| Mike Gartner | 1979-97 | 1,432 | 708 |
| Mark Messier | 1979-2003 | 1,756 | 694 |
| Steve Yzerman | 1983-2005 | 1,514 | 692 |
| Mario Lemieux | 1984-2005 | 915 | 690 |
| Teemu Selanne | 1992-2013 | 1,451 | 684 |
| Luc Robitaille | 1986-2005 | 1,431 | 668 |
| Brendan Shanahan | 1987-2008 | 1,524 | 656 |
| Dave Andreychuk | 1982-2005 | 1,639 | 640 |
| Jarome Iginla | 1996-2017 | 1,554 | 625 |
| Joe Sakic | 1988-2008 | 1,378 | 625 |
| Bobby Hull | 1957-79 | 1,063 | 610 |
| Sidney Crosby* | 2005-present | 1,327 | 609 |
| Dino Ciccarelli | 1980-98 | 1,232 | 608 |
*Active player
Alex Ovechkin goals record facts
- Ovechkin has scored an incredible 404 NHL goals (and counting) since turning 30, second all-time to Gordie Howe (415).
- Ovi already has a pair of NHL "accumulation" records under his belt: He has scored the most power-play goals in history (318), and has also taken the most shots on goal (6,764).
- Ovechkin also holds the record for the most goaltenders scored against, having put at least one puck past 180 different netminders. He broke the record Jan. 16, 2025 with a goal against Ottawa Senators goalie Leevi Merilainen.
- Ovi's 18 30-goal seasons are the most in NHL history, one better than Mike Gartner – and he's trending toward easily extending that number this season. He also owns the record for most 40-goal seasons (13) and is tied with Gretzky and Mike Bossy for the most 50-goal seasons (nine).
- Ovechkin has won a record nine goal scoring titles – and with all of them coming during the Rocket Richard Trophy era, that's a lot of hardware for No. 8's trophy case.
For as prolific as Ovi has been in his career, he has gone just 2-for-13 on penalty shots, with his only goals both coming in 2010.
Alex Ovechkin goals record FAQs
How close is Alex Ovechkin to breaking the goals record?
Ovechkin has scored 879 regular-season NHL goals, leaving him 16 shy of breaking the all-time record.
Who is the NHL's all-time goal scoring leader?
Wayne Gretzky owns the NHL's goal scoring record with 895 career regular-season tallies.
What are the odds Alex Ovechkin will break the goal scoring record this season?
FanDuel Canada has Ovechkin listed at +190 to pass Wayne Gretzky's all-time goals record in 2024-25, carrying an implied probability of 34.48%.
How many goals does Alex Ovechkin score per season?
Entering the 2024-25 season, Ovechkin averaged nearly 45 goals per season over his first 19 NHL campaigns.
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