4 Nations Face-Off Odds & Favorites: USA the Slight Favorite Approaching Puck Drop
We're just hours away from the opening puck drop of the Canada-USA final, and Team USA has pulled just ahead by the 4 Nations Face-Off odds.
DraftKings is the only one of our five best sportsbooks that has seen line movement on game day, with Canada's odds lengthening from -112 to -102. Team USA's odds shortened from -108 to -118.
However, that line movement is just enough to declare Team USA as the marginal 4 Nations Face-Off odds favorites. They are the favorites at two of our five best sports betting sites, with the other three offering standard -110 juice for both teams.
Along with our Canada vs. USA prediction, here are the odds going into tonight's final at TD Garden in Boston (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).
4 Nations Face-Off final odds, betting lines
(Odds as of Feb. 20)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | -102 | -110 | -110 | -105 | -110 |
| USA | -118 | -110 | -110 | -115 | -110 |
Latest final odds movement and takeaways:
- USA pulled just ahead in the hours before the final
- DraftKings had the only movement in the last 24 hours. Canada was the favorite but has since seen the USA overtake them
- With the total set at 5.5 goals, two of our five best sports betting apps have +110 Over and -130 Under odds.
- DraftKings offers +114 for the Over and -135 for the Under
- Caesars offers +115 for the Over and -135 for the Under
- FanDuel has the Over at -134 and the Under at +110
- Team USA's odds lengthened from -150 to -110 after the round robin
- Canada's implied win probability ranges from (-102) 50.50% to (-110) 52.38%
- Team USA's implied win probability ranges from (-110) 52.38% to (-118) 54.13%
4 Nations Face-Off favorite
USA 4 Nations Face-Off odds (-110)
First things first, it's essential not to take anything away from the Americans' loss to Sweden in the final round-robin game other than the fact that Auston Matthews, Charlie McAvoy, and Matthew Tkachuk didn't feature.
Matthew's younger brother, Brady, also sat for most of the game after suffering a knock in the first period. However, the brothers and Matthews are ready to go for the final.
McAvoy is a different story. On Tuesday, the Bruins released a statement that the star defenseman would not be available for the final after suffering an upper-body injury that resulted in hospitalization. The exact nature of the injury is not yet known.
There's one reason and one reason alone the United States is considering marginal favorites: Vezina Trophy odds runaway front-runner and 4 Nations Face-Off MVP odds favorite Connor Hellebuyck. He can easily steal a game, and that's a worrying and foreboding issue for Jon Cooper's Canada.
Best odds: -110 at BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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USA 4 Nations Face-Off roster
| Player | Position | NHL team |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Boldy | Forward | Minnesota Wild |
| Kyle Connor | Forward | Winnipeg Jets |
| Jack Eichel* | Forward | Vegas Golden Knights |
| Jake Guentzel | Forward | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| Jack Hughes | Forward | New Jersey Devils |
| Chris Kreider | Forward | New York Rangers |
| Dylan Larkin | Forward | Detroit Red Wings |
| Auston Matthews* | Forward | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| J.T. Miller | Forward | Vancouver Canucks |
| Brock Nelson | Forward | New York Islanders |
| Matthew Tkachuk* | Forward | Florida Panthers |
| Brady Tkachuk | Forward | Ottawa Senators |
| Vincent Trocheck | Forward | New York Rangers |
| Tage Thompson | Forward | Buffalo Sabres |
| Brett Pesce | Defenseman | New Jersey Devils |
| Brock Faber | Defenseman | Minnesota Wild |
| Adam Fox* | Defenseman | New York Rangers |
| Noah Hanifin | Defenseman | Vegas Golden Knights |
| Charlie McAvoy* | Defenseman | Boston Bruins |
| Jaccob Slavin | Defenseman | Carolina Hurricanes |
| Zach Werenski | Defenseman | Columbus Blue Jackets |
| Jake Sanderson | Defenseman | Ottawa Senators |
| Connor Hellebuyck | Goaltender | Winnipeg Jets |
| Jake Oettinger | Goaltender | Dallas Stars |
| Jeremy Swayman | Goaltender | Boston Bruins |
4 Nations Face-Off underdog
Canada 4 Nations Face-Off odds (-102)
It's strange to slot Canada into the underdog category.
Let's get real: the difference in odds and implied probability between the finalists doesn't give you a favorite vs. underdog vibe. This final is as close to a coin toss as you'll get with Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon heating up and the Tkachuk brothers' locomotive being temporarily derailed.
Also, the superstar may have more open ice with McAvoy sidelined. I can't stress this enough: If Canada can solve Hellebucyk, the revenge they're seeking is within reach. A winning $10 bet will profit $9.52.
Best odds: -102 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 50.50%
Canada 4 Nations Face-Off roster
(Final rosters as of Feb. 11; players with asterisks were the initial roster selections for each team)
| Player | Position | NHL team |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Bennett | Forward | Florida Panthers |
| Anthony Cirelli | Forward | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| Sidney Crosby* | Forward | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| Brandon Hagel | Forward | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| Seth Jarvis | Forward | Carolina Hurricanes |
| Travis Konecny | Forward | Philadelphia Flyers |
| Nathan MacKinnon* | Forward | Colorado Avalanche |
| Brad Marchand* | Forward | Boston Bruins |
| Mitch Marner | Forward | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| Connor McDavid* | Forward | Edmonton Oilers |
| Brayden Point* | Forward | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| Sam Reinhart | Forward | Florida Panthers |
| Mark Stone | Forward | Vegas Golden Knights |
| Cale Makar* | Defenseman | Colorado Avalanche |
| Josh Morrissey | Defenseman | Winnipeg Jets |
| Colton Parayko | Defenseman | St. Louis Blues |
| Travis Sanheim | Defenseman | Philadelphia Flyers |
| Thomas Harley | Defenseman | Vegas Golden Knights |
| Devon Toews | Defenseman | Colorado Avalanche |
| Drew Doughty | Defenseman | Los Angeles Kings |
| Jordan Binnington | Goaltender | St. Louis Blues |
| Adin Hill | Goaltender | Vegas Golden Knights |
| Samuel Montembeault | Goaltender | Montreal Canadiens |
4 Nations Face-Off odds: Tournament MVP
Odds as of Feb. 20 via FanDuel
| Player | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck | +200 | 33.33% | $20 |
| Connor McDavid | +320 | 23.81% | $32 |
| Sidney Crosby | +380 | 20.83% | $38 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
| Zach Werenski | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Jake Guentzel | +1900 | 5% | $190 |
| Jack Eichel | +1900 | 5% | $190 |
| Matthew Tkachuk | +1900 | 5% | $190 |
| Brady Tkahcuk | +4600 | 2.13% | $220 |
| Dylan Larkin | +6500 | 1.52% | $650 |
4 Nations Face-Off MVP odds movement:
- Despite not playing against the Swedes, Hellebuyck's odds improved from +380 to +250
- Hellebuyck's odds shortened from +250 to +200 hours before the final. McDavid's lengthened from +290 to +320
- Crosby's odds shortened from +490 to +380 hours before the final
- MacKinnon is one of the biggest movers, with his odds improving from +2400 to +600 after scoring two goals against Finland. His odds lengthened from +700 to +750 hours before the final. He's our 4 Nations Face-Off MVP odds best-value pick
- Brady Tkachuk's odds fell of a cliff, falling from +2200 to+4600
4 Nations Face-Off MVP favorite
Connor Hellebuyck 4 Nations Face-Off MVP odds (+200)
Nobody should be surprised to see Hellebuyck atop the 4 Nations Face-Off MVP odds leaderboard. He's the runaway Vezina Trophy odds favorite and among the Hart Trophy favorites.
He stopped everything Canada threw at him in the first meeting, aside from a moment of silky-smooth skill from McDavid. He's in the zone, and it will take more traffic than Toronto's Highway 401 at rush hour to beat him. A winning $10 bet would profit $25.
Best odds: +200 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 33.33%
4 Nations Face-Off FAQs
Who is the 4 Nations Face-Off favorite?
Team USA is the slight 4 Nations Face-Off odds favorite at our best NHL betting sites, trading at -110, a 52.38% probability, according to our odds calculator.
When does the 4 Nations Face-Off take place?
The 4 Nations Face-Off takes place from Feb. 12 to 20, 2025, with games split between Montreal's Bell Centre and Boston's TD Garden.
What countries are in the 4 Nations Face-Off?
Canada, the United States, Sweden, and Finland are the participating countries at the 4 Nations Face-Off.
How are points awarded in the 4 Nations Face-Off?
Teams are given three points for a regulation win, two points for an overtime victory, and one point for an OT loss.
When were the 4 Nations Face-Off rosters announced?
Initial six-man rosters for each team were revealed over the summer, while the remainder of the 4 Nations Face-off rosters were announced Dec. 4.
Where is the 4 Nations Face-Off final?
The final will take place at Boston's TD Garden.
When is the 4 Nations Face-Off final?
The 4 Nations Face-Off final starts tonight at 8 p.m. ET.
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