NFL Week 11 Player Prop Bets: Best Odds & Picks This Week
We cashed one of our four NFL player props last week, and let's try to bounce back now with our NFL Week 11 player prop bets and odds for Sunday.
Once again we have our eyes on a few signal-callers this week, including one leading the way for a Super Bowl odds contender during a divisional clash in Chicago.
We're also fading a hometown hero in his return to New Orleans, and showing some faith in a much-maligned quarterback during his return to the starting lineup as part of our NFL Week 11 predictions.
NFL player prop bets for Week 11
NFL odds subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Anthony Richardson Over 34.5 yards longest completion (-115 via bet365) at Jets ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jameis Winston Under 34.5 passing attempts (-109 via Caesars) at Saints ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jordan Love Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115 via FanDuel) at Bears ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Best NFL player prop bets this week
Anthony Richardson Over 34.5 yards longest completion (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
After a two-game stint on the bench, Richardson is back in action this week as the Colts look to save their season. And while I'm skeptical that he'll play well in general, this wager is well worth your attention.
First, let's acknowledge the elephant in the room: Richardson has been awful in his sophomore season, completing 44.4% of his pass attempts with more interceptions (seven) than touchdowns (four). But there's still a rocket attached to his shoulder, and he's put it to good use all season long.
Richardson has completed a pass of at least 30 yards in all six starts this season - even when he left early with an injury - and his longest pass went 69 yards during his last outing against the Texans.
Meanwhile, the Jets have allowed the highest EPA/play on defense since firing Robert Saleh, and they're giving up the eighth-highest average depth of target (8.28) across the entire season.
If Richardson unleashes even one long bomb on Sunday, a $10 ticket at bet365 would return a profit of $8.70.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Jameis Winston Under 34.5 passing attempts (-109) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I know what you're thinking: Why would I bet against a big day from Winston against his former team, especially after he threw it 40-plus times in back-to-back games?
Sure, Winston has combined for 87 pass attempts since he took over as the full-time starter for Deshaun Watson. But he also faced the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers, who both rank in the top four in EPA/rush allowed.
The Saints rank 30th by that metric, allowing nearly 0.1 expected points per rush attempt while sitting in the top 10 in EPA allowed per pass attempt (-0.07).
After Winston tossed three picks last week, I'd expect coach Kevin Stefanski to lean on the run game this week - even in a potential payback spot for Winston.
Best odds: -109 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.15%
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Jordan Love Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
It's flown under the radar amid the hysteria about Caleb Williams' inconsistent play, but the Bears' defense has quietly been one of the best units in football across the entire season.
Chicago ranks seventh in EPA/play allowed (-0.09) and sits second behind only the Detroit Lions in EPA/passing play (-0.18). The Bears have also allowed the fewest passing touchdowns (six) with the second-lowest TD rate (2.2%) behind the Lions.
Fittingly, Love faced off against that vaunted Detroit pass defense last week and finished without a passing touchdown for the second straight start.
Most of our best NFL betting sites are offering this wager at -120 odds, but a $10 bet at this price via FanDuel would return a $8.70 profit if Love struggles again.
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%
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