NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 13: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week
Favorites went 10-3 straight up in Week 12. But some significant ones were among those that lost, giving hope to NFL underdogs around the league entering Week 13.
- Two division leaders (the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans) lost to two teams (the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans) that had posted a combined four wins entering Week 12
- The Washington Commanders lost to the Dallas Cowboys, suffering the first loss from any double-digit favorite this season (6-1 SU)
- If Brock Purdy is active for the San Francisco 49ers this week against the Buffalo Bills, it will be his first of 32 career regular-season starts with his team listed as an underdog
Our NFL upset picks fade three teams that have all earned seven-plus wins and are getting favorable NFL playoff odds entering Week 13, and one has earned a top 10 slot in the Super Bowl odds. Two of our underdog plays also involve AFC vs. NFC matchups.
NFL underdogs to back: Week 13
NFL odds as of Tuesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Falcons (+105 via BetMGM) vs. Chargers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Titans (+210 via FanDuel) at Commanders ⭐⭐
- Cardinals (+168 via FanDuel) at Vikings ⭐⭐⭐
Week 13 upset predictions
NFL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Falcons (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The analysis for this play is mostly schedule-based, as the Falcons are getting arguably the most significant advantage one team can have over another in an NFL regular-season game.
Atlanta is rested off a bye and is playing a Chargers team coming off a short week after a Monday Night Football matchup. Additionally, Los Angeles is taking one of the longest flights any team makes, and it plays at 1 p.m. ET.
Lastly, the Chargers just dealt with a matchup against one of the league's most physical teams, as the Ravens pounded them with 37 rushing attempts in Week 12.
This is only a three-star play, as the Falcons are coping with their worst loss (by 32 points) over the last three seasons. They're also seeking the team's first win against an AFC opponent this campaign (they're 0-3 against the AFC and 6-2 vs. the NFC).
BetMGM is one of the only best NFL betting sites offering better than +102 odds to back the underdog Falcons for one of your NFL Week 13 predictions.
Best odds: +105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 48.78%
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Titans (+210) ⭐⭐
Perhaps I'm overreacting a bit to Tennessee’s road win at Houston and Washington’s home loss to Dallas last week. But what the Titans were able to overcome last week has me taking a flier on them pulling off a second consecutive upset.
Will Levis became the first quarterback to win a game despite throwing a pick-6 and taking eight-plus sacks since Mark Brunell in 2001. He also shook the monkey off his back with Levis' first division win (1-5 in his career against AFC South opponents).
The signal-caller now draws a Commanders team that's lost three straight (by 17 total points) since a 7-2 start.
Washington’s special teams were a huge letdown last week while allowing two kickoff returns for touchdowns, and Austin Seibert missed three kicks. And the Titans' defense is strong enough that scoring 21-plus points could be all that's needed to pull off a road upset.
Through FanDuel’s +210 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $21 in profit. That's favorable compared to a $20 return at BetMGM’s +200 odds.
Best odds: +210 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 32.26%
Cardinals (+168) ⭐⭐
The Cardinals laid an egg last week during a 16-6 road loss to the Seattle Seahawks. The defeat snapped a four-game winning streak, and it was their first contest without a touchdown all season. It also dropped Arizona’s record to 1-5 when Kyler Murray logs one or fewer touchdowns.
The Cardinals have posted equal to or more road wins than home victories in every season since the start of 2018. The prospect of facing a Vikings team that's 4-1 at home this year doesn't seem as daunting.
Kyler Murray entered last week with the league's highest QBR when under pressure this season (93.8). Seattle pressured him on a season-high 42% of his dropbacks, which was the highest pressure rate in a game he's started and finished since 2021, according to ESPN’s Brady Henderson.
While the amount of pressure Murray faced is concerning, it does allow the Cardinals opportunities to prepare. The issue could be corrected before facing a Brian Flores-coached Vikings defense that's produced one of the NFL's highest pressure rates.
There's a huge 14-cent gap between Arizona’s shortest odds (+154 at DraftKings) and the +168 price at FanDuel.
Best odds: +168 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 37.31%
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