NFL Thanksgiving Parlay Picks & Predictions: Best Pick for All 3 Games
Although the public has been the successful side in recent years on Thanksgiving, we’re looking to buck tradition by fading a couple popular home favorites Thursday.
Our NFL Thanksgiving parlay picks see value in taking the points against the Lions and Cowboys - but can our favorite pick of the day close out our parlay with a win to wrap up our NFL Thanksgiving picks?
NFL Thanksgiving parlay predictions
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL parlay betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Bears vs. Lions pick: Bears +9.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Giants vs. Cowboys pick: Giants +3.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Dolphins vs. Packers pick: Packers -3 (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Combined odds: +554 via Caesars | Implied probability: 15.29%
Caesars is a 21+ product
Bears vs. Lions parlay pick
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Bears +9.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Last year’s loss to the Packers on Thanksgiving was a rare letdown by the Lions when featured as a turkey day favorites, but this number feels lofty against a Bears team that has been feisty against the spread recently.
The public hammered the Lions early when the lines were first released, pushing Detroit as high as -10.5 at some of our NFL betting sites. Though 65% of wagers have been placed on the Lions, money seems to be flowing in on Chicago to move the spread down to Bears +9.5.
I agree with the recent line movement, as the Bears are a threat to spoil the party in Detroit based on Caleb Williams’ recent uptick in performance. We wrote more about the Bears QB with our Caleb Williams player prop bets.
After two straight narrow losses to the Vikings and Packers (teams with a combined 17-5 record), I expect the dynamic rookie quarterback to keep the Bears in this game now that his host of pass-catching weapons is fully healthy and integrated.
If you like the Lions in this one, Mike Spector made the case in his Bears vs. Lions prediction, while C Jackson Cowart offered the best way to profit on a potential blowout in his Bears vs. Lions parlay.
Giants vs. Cowboys parlay pick
Giants +3.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Even with Daniel Jones released and Tommy DeVito ruled out, that doesn’t impact my pick considering Drew Lock should arguably be the New York starter on merit. We’re comfortable riding Giants +3.5 ahead of Lock's first start of the season.
With 79% of spread bets on Dallas, the market is overvaluing the Cowboys after last week’s upset win over the Commanders. Dallas is 2-11 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2011 with a cover last season snapping a streak of four straight years of letdowns.
Brian Daboll’s Giants covered the spread against Dallas on Thanksgiving two years ago, and I see it happening again here. The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS at home this season with an almost incomprehensibly poor average margin against the spread of -21.1 points per game.
Spector is also backing the G-Men to cover the spread with a big day from their best receiver in his Giants vs. Cowboys prediction. And we like a Giants rookie to score a touchdown as part of our Giants vs. Cowboys player props.
Dolphins vs. Packers parlay pick
Packers -3 (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
I like Green Bay in the Thanksgiving nightcap as the Packers are the more battle-tested side, going 4-2 outright at home this season while facing a host of solid teams. The Packers rank inside the top 10 in both scoring offense (25.8 PPG) and scoring defense (18.3 PPG) when playing at home.
Meanwhile, Miami has dominated its soft recent schedule but hasn’t yet beaten a team with a winning record this season.
Cold weather has also been a problem for Tua Tagovailoa, who is 0-7 in seven career starts with the temperature below 40 degrees. The forecast for Green Bay on Thursday evening is in the 20s. Spector dove more into that angle in his Dolphins vs. Packers prediction.
With the spread at -3 versus -3.5 being such a key difference, we’re playing this parlay at Caesars (+554) to target the Packers at -3. We also dove into further detail on our favorite Dolphins vs. Packers player props.
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