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Super Bowl 2025 MVP Picks & Predictions for Chiefs vs. Eagles

Philip Wood

Last Updated: February 7, 2025 9:00 AM EST • 3 min 35 sec read.

Will Patrick Mahomes win his third consecutive Super Bowl MVP, or will someone else take home the coveted award? When making the best Super Bowl MVP picks and predictions, it's important to acknowledge how often quarterbacks win the award.

Mahomes is the only quarterback with short Super Bowl MVP odds, as Jalen Hurts is sitting at +350 for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles game.

Let's look at who we think will take home the honor for Sunday's Super Bowl 2025, played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans (6:30 p.m. ET, FOX).

Super Bowl MVP predictions: Chiefs vs. Eagles

Our NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the latest touchdown scorer odds among the legal sportsbooks in your region on each of these picks.

  • Chiefs Super Bowl MVP prediction: Patrick Mahomes (+120 via FanDuel)
  • Eagles Super Bowl MVP prediction: Saquon Barkley (+250 via Caesars)
  • Long-shot Super Bowl MVP prediction: George Karlaftis (+1400 via FanDuel)

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Chiefs Super Bowl MVP prediction

Patrick Mahomes

The Chiefs have won three Super Bowls with Mahomes, and he won MVP every time. The Chiefs QB even won Super Bowl 54 despite tossing two interceptions.

Additionally, the quarterback is the most likely player to win this award. Six of the last eight winners have been quarterbacks. Since the Super Bowl era began, 33 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks, more than four times the number won by wide receivers, the position with the second-most wins.

With the Chiefs favored to win the Big Game, it’s somewhat shocking to see Mahomes — who we covered in our Super Bowl 2025 player prop picks — with a price greater than +100 at all our best NFL betting sites. And if Mahomes wins his fourth MVP, his stock will dramatically rise in the Mahomes vs. Tom Brady GOAT debate. 

FanDuel is offering the best price by far.

Best odds: +120 via FanDuel | Implied win probability: 45.45%

Eagles Super Bowl MVP prediction

Saquon Barkley 

Best odds: +250 via Caesars | Implied win probability: 28.57%

If you think the Eagles can win this game, then there is a lot of value in taking one of their players to win MVP. Hurts is currently sitting at +350 or worse at every major sportsbook, which is a great price considering he would have won the MVP in Super Bowl 57 had his team prevailed. Remember, he had three rushing touchdowns in that game and threw for over 300 yards.

I don’t expect Hurts to score quite as much in this game because of the addition of Barkley. He has five rushing touchdowns this postseason, recording multiple scores in back-to-back games. His incredible ground performances have also kept Hurts from throwing for over 140 yards in two of his last three.

A running back hasn’t won this award since Terrell Davis in Super Bowl 32. That’s an alarming stretch for what was once the most valued position in football. But the Eagles run their offense through Barkley as we noted in our best rushing prop bets for Chiefs vs. Eagles. And if they win, he will be the reason why. 

Caesars offers the most competitive price at our best sportsbooks, and a winning $10 bet will profit $25. 

Long-shot Super Bowl MVP prediction

George Karlaftis

Best odds: +1400 via FanDuel | Implied win probability: 6.67%

Only two defensive ends have ever won Super Bowl MVP. The last came in Super Bowl 20 when Richard Dent won for the victorious Chicago Bears. So, while this is incredibly unlikely, there is quite a bit to like about Karlaftis on Sunday.

First, Karlaftis led the Chiefs in sacks this season, racking up eight. He’s also compiled three sacks in the postseason. And while many will argue that Hurts is too mobile of a quarterback for a defensive end to rack up meaningful numbers against, he’s been sacked 11 times this postseason. Seven of those came against the Los Angeles Rams.

Despite being injured for the last weeks of the season, Hurts was sacked 38 times in the regular season. If this ends up being a low-scoring game, then a few sacks and a fumble recovery may be enough to get a defensive player the MVP award. A winning $10 bet would profit $140. 

Super Bowl MVP odds

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.