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Expert Super Bowl 1st Play Predictions & Prop Bet Odds: Who'll Score First TD in Chiefs-Eagles?

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: February 9, 2025 2:29 PM EST • 4 min 27 sec read.

We expect the Eagles to draw first blood in our Super Bowl first play predictions.
Pictured: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts runs with the ball against the Washington Commanders. Photo by Eric Hartline via Imagn Images.

Super Bowl 2025 could be historic as the Kansas City Chiefs face the Philadelphia Eagles with a chance to become the first team to win three straight titles. Meanwhile, the Eagles seek redemption after their Super Bowl 57 loss to Kansas City.

Beyond the big picture, there are key firsts to watch - who scores first, how the first points come, and which playmaker steps up early - as our experts break down their Super Bowl first play predictions.

Kickoff is set for today at 6:30 p.m. ET from the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans (FOX), with history hanging in the balance as we make our Super Bowl predictions.

Super Bowl 1st play predictions & expert picks

Picks made by Sean Tomlinson, Rob Paul, Gabe Henderson, and C Jackson Cowart.

MarketTomlinsonPaulHendersonCowart
To score firstEagles (+100 via Caesars)Eagles (+100 via Caesars)Eagles (+100 via Caesars)Eagles (+100 via Caesars)
Method of first scoreField goal (+154 via DraftKings)Eagles field goal (+380 via Caesars)Eagles rushing touchdown (+350 via BetMGM)Eagles rushing touchdown (+350 via BetMGM)
First turnoverNeither team to commit a turnover (+750 via DraftKings)Fumble (+200 via bet365)Neither team to commit a turnover (+750 via DraftKings)Chiefs (+100 via DraftKings)
First drive resultEagles field goal made (+450)Punt (+125 via Caesars)Eagles touchdown (+205 via DraftKings)Eagles touchdown (+205 via DraftKings)

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Chiefs vs. Eagles 1st play expert picks

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1st turnover prediction: Neither team to commit a turnover

Best odds: +750 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 11.76%

DraftKings offers an option for neither team to commit a turnover under its first turnover committed market. The wager predictably comes with juicy odds, but it’s a long-shot play worth serious consideration with the right moderate investment.

Ball security is an emphasis for both teams, with the Chiefs tied for the second-fewest fumbles lost during the regular season at three, and the Eagles at a modest nine.

Even more impressively, Patrick Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 11. And Jalen Hurts thrives in that regard, too, with the Eagles often not asking him to do much as a passer. He threw just five picks all season, and none since Week 10.

–– Sean Tomlinson

1st drive prediction: Punt

Best odds: +125 via Caesars | Implied probability: 44.44%

At Caesars, you have the option to bet on either the outcome of a specific team’s first drive or the result of the first drive of the game, regardless of team. I prefer this market to avoid the unpredictability of the Super Bowl coin toss odds influencing the outcome.

Obviously both these teams have superstars on their offenses, but to me, this game is all about defense. It’s two of the best defensive coordinators of the 21st century - Steve Spagnuolo and Vic Fangio - with two weeks of prep to try and slow Saquon Barkley and Patrick Mahomes. Plus, both these defenses are loaded, especially in the front seven.

Philadelphia was third in EPA per play on defense in the regular season, and the combo of Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith Jr. should be a problem for a Chiefs O-line that has Joe Thuney playing out of position and Mike Caliendo starting at left guard. Meanwhile, KC can lean on Chris Jones to prey on the banged-up combo of Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens.

–– Rob Paul

Method of 1st score prediction: Eagles rushing touchdown

Best odds: +350 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 22.22%

Kansas City has won its last three Super Bowl coin tosses. Further, it has won nine this season and deferred every single time. Seeing as the Chiefs are the designated visitors in Super Bowl 2025, we’re banking on the streak to continue, which means Philadelphia getting the ball first.

Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley represent one of the NFL’s most threatening two-headed monsters. They’re both enjoying phenomenal seasons, accounting for 3,199 combined rushing yards and 36 rushing touchdowns. Behind one of the league’s most feared offensive lines and going up against a dodgy rush defense, anything is possible.

Seven of the Eagles’ first scoring drives this season included rushing touchdowns, so we believe it’s the safest bet of the bunch. BetMGM lists this play at +350, meaning a $10 winning wager on the method of first score returns $35 in profits.

–– Gabe Henderson

Chiefs 1st reception prediction: Marquise Brown

Super Bowl first play predictions and expert picks
Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Hollywood Brown (5) against the Buffalo Bills. Photo by Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images.

Best odds: +500 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 16.67%

I'm going a little off the board with this one, but this is one of my favorite bets of the Super Bowl every year - especially after cashing multiple long-shot bets last year when 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk caught the game's first pass for San Francisco.

I don't see that kind of value on the board this year unless you feel like taking a shot on Isiah Pacheco (+1400), who saw Patrick Mahomes' first target in the wild-card round. Instead, my eyes are locked on Brown, who caught the first two passes in the AFC Championship and has often been an early target for this team since his return.

Brown's presence on the field is a big deal for a Kansas City offense that has struggled to stretch the field all season long, so I expect him to be one of the first 11 guys out there when the Chiefs get the ball. And don't be surprised if he's involved right away.

–– C Jackson Cowart

Chiefs vs. Eagles odds

Here are the latest NFL odds for Chiefs vs. Eagles from our best NFL betting sites.

Super Bowl 2025 info

  • When: Sunday, Feb. 9
  • Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Chiefs -1.5 (-105 via FanDuel)

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.