NFL Picks Against the Spread for Every Week 13 Game
We have perhaps the best week of the NFL season on deck, as fans and bettors are treated to three Thanksgiving games, one special Black Friday affair, and all of the usual Sunday and Monday action.
Our typical against the spread expert, Gary Pearson, is off this week after going 2-1 on his top picks, so I have some big shoes to fill.
We're riding with four underdogs as part of our NFL picks against the spread for every game, and we're highlighting one as part of our trio of top bets.
Meanwhile, we're backing a team that feels incorrectly priced due to its recent lopsided defeat against one of the true powerhouses of the NFL.
Finally, as part of our NFL Week 13 predictions, we're taking a chance on a spread that could move in a hurry should a certain quarterback once again be ruled out for former Super Bowl odds contenders.
NFL ATS picks Week 13: Every game
NFL odds via FanDuel and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (-10.5) | Bears +10.5 (-120) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) | Cowboys -3.5 (-115) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers (-3.5) | Packers -3.5 (-102) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) | Chiefs -12.5 (-110) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Houston Texans (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | Jaguars +5.5 (-115) | ⭐⭐ |
| Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons | Falcons +1.5 (-110) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) | Bengals -2.5 (-120) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. New England Patriots | Colts -2.5 (-120) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) | Vikings -3.5 (-115) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders (-5.5) | Commanders -5.5 (-115) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) vs. New York Jets | Seahawks -1.5 (-115) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints | Rams -2.5 (-120) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) vs. Carolina Panthers | Panthers +6.5 (-115) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Philadelphia Eagles vs. Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) | Ravens -2.5 (-120) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills (-6.5) | Bills -6.5 (-120) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos (-5.5) | Broncos -5.5 (-110) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
My favorite ATS picks this week
NFL picks as of Tuesday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons (+1.5)
Best odds: +1.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 52.38%
The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off a disappointing loss in the Harbaugh Bowl on Monday night against the Baltimore Ravens, and things don't get any easier with a trip to Atlanta on a short week.
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh didn't provide an update on the status of running back JK Dobbins following the loss to Baltimore, and we saw during that game how important he is to Los Angeles' offense.
Meanwhile, the Falcons were on bye in Week 12, allowing No. 2 wide receiver Darnell Mooney time to recover from a hamstring injury. Additionally, we saw the Ravens dice up the Chargers in the running game, so a rested duo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier should do the same.
I think the Falcons can win this one outright, so if you want to bet on their +106 moneyline odds at FanDuel, I have no problem with that. But for the purpose of this article, we'll take the +1.5 at -110.
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
Best odds: -3 (+100 via bet365) | Implied probability: 50%
The New Orleans Saints were also on their bye, but they're awful.
You know who's not awful despite a 17-point loss on Sunday Night Football? The Los Angeles Rams.
Unfortunately, for the Rams, the Philadelphia Eagles are just that good.
Sure, everyone is focused on NFL MVP odds contender Saquon Barkley, but the team's offensive line was the real story of that game on Sunday. Combine that with another solid showing from Jalen Hurts and the fact that A.J. Brown is virtually uncoverable, and even the best teams will have a hard time staying competitive with the Eagles.
This spread feels like an overreaction to that loss, as the Rams are significantly better than the Saints.
I'm going with the -3 at even money vs. -2.5 at far shorter odds because we're getting great value with this price, and I'll risk the push on a 3-point win to profit more on what I expect to be a comfortable victory.
A winning $10 wager on this bet will result in a $10 profit, while the -120 odds on -2.5 result in just $8.33 in profit.
Terms and conditions apply.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Best odds: -6.5 (-120 via DraftKings) | Implied probability: 54.55%
Our final against the spread pick is the aforementioned "risk."
Now, I think the Buffalo Bills are good enough to annihilate the reeling San Francisco 49ers by a touchdown or more at home even if Brock Purdy plays. However, if Purdy is forced to miss another contest with his shoulder injury, this spread will balloon to double digits.
Therefore, let's hit this one right away to ensure we get the best number. Sure, the possibility of Purdy missing the game could be baked into this line a bit already, pushing it from -5.5 to -6.5, but that doesn't worry me.
The Bills are coming off their bye, but they earned their biggest win of the season before that by taking down the Kansas City Chiefs.
I think this game goes similarly even with Purdy healthy, and that resulted in a 9-point win for Buffalo.
NFL betting odds pages
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