NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game
Home teams enjoyed a successful Week 11 while posting a 9-5 against-the-spread (ATS) record. Six of the eight home favorites also covered the spread, with the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers the only ones to fail.
It comes as no surprise to learn that the Jets fired general manager Joe Douglas on Tuesday. The Detroit Lions and Pittsburgh Steelers, who are among the 10 Super Bowl odds favorites, improved to an NFL-best 8-2 ATS.
- Away teams are 86-76-4 ATS but were 5-9 in Week 11
- Home favorites are 50-50-2 ATS after a 6-2 Week 11
- Away favorites are 36-26-2 ATS after a 3-3 Week 11
Teams playing at home weren't the only ones cleaning up. We enjoyed a 9-5 Week 11 ATS record, bringing our record to 71-47 since Week 4.
As Thanksgiving approaches, let's hope we produce another successful week to accompany the feasting as we offer our NFL picks against the spread for every Week 12 game.
The below picks are part of our NFL Week 12 predictions.
NFL ATS picks Week 12: Every game
NFL odds via DraftKings and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Steelers (-3.5) vs. Browns | Steelers (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Lions (-7.5) vs. Colts | Colts (+7.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Chiefs (-10.5) vs. Panthers | Chiefs (-10.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Buccaneers (-5.5) vs. Giants | Buccaneers (-5.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Patriots vs. Dolphins (-7) | Dolphins (-7) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Vikings (-3) vs. Bears | Vikings (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Titans vs. Texans (-8) | Texans (-8) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cowboys vs. Commanders (-10.5) | Cowboys (+10.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Broncos (-5.5) vs. Raiders | Broncos (-5.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 49ers vs. Packers (-2.5) | 49ers (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cardinals vs. Seahawks (-1) | Cardinals (+1) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Eagles (-2.5) vs. Rams | Eagles (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ravens (-3) vs. Chargers | Ravens (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
My favorite ATS picks this week
NFL picks as of Tuesday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Steelers (-3.5) vs. Browns
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
Traveling to Cleveland to play the Browns poses a distinct threat of a letdown for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
However, the Steelers are 8-2 ATS after playing an excellent game against Baltimore despite not scoring a touchdown. The Steelers haven't lost since Russell Wilson took the helm under center, winning all four contests. They've won five straight overall.
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last five games and 7-3 ATS in the team's last 10 against the Browns.
The Browns' offense has been better with Jameis Winston at quarterback, but not enough to overlook the distinct difference in form and overall proficiency between these teams. The Browns field the 30th-ranked offense via PFF, while the Steelers' defense is ranked third.
That disparity is too significant to trust the Browns to keep it within four points. If the Steelers win by four or more, you'll pocket $9.09 on a $10 bet.
Buccaneers (-5.5) vs. Giants
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%
A pair of well-rested teams will battle at MetLife Stadium, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants coming off a bye.
The Giants will start Tommy DeVito after benching Daniel Jones. DeVito enjoyed some impressive moments last season, especially in his first couple of games. But the signal-caller finished the season with a 3-3 record while averaging just 122.3 passing yards per outing.
The Buccaneers enter the contest with the 11th-ranked offense, via PFF. Baker Mayfield endured consecutive subpar passing games against the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers while averaging 158 yards, and he'll be ready to make amends.
The Giants boast an elite pass-rush unit that ranks sixth, but their coverage is 16th. Additionally, the Bucs' pass blocking is the third-best, which should prove pivotal while allowing Mayfield enough time to carve apart the Giants' secondary.
The Giants are 3-7 ATS and are completely devoid of confidence after losing five straight. Plus, head coach Brian Daboll is on the ropes, and another loss or two could see him on the unemployment line. And then there's the news that Mike Evans returned to practice and should feature in this matchup.
A winning $10 bet will yield a $9.52 profit.
Broncos (-4.5) vs. Raiders
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%
The Denver Broncos are on a heater after winning three of their last five games while pushing the Kansas City Chiefs to the brink. Sean Payton's squad is tied with the Indianapolis Colts for the third-best ATS record (8-3).
And Bo Nix has been playing in Payton's system perfectly. Nix has been given the second-shortest Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, thanks mainly to a recent run of throwing nine touchdown passes and just one interception in the last five games.
The Broncos wiped the floor with the struggling Las Vegas Raiders last time they met while winning at home 34-18 in Week 5. The Raiders field the 28th-ranked offense, while the Broncos' defense is ranked fifth. A winning $10 bet will yield an $8.70 profit.
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