Lions vs. Colts Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: NFL Week 12
The Detroit Lions have surged to the top of the Super Bowl odds after whipping the Jacksonville Jaguars 52-6 last week, becoming just the third team in NFL history to win three of their first 10 games by 35-plus points.
That led our best sports betting sites to install Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite for Sunday’s visit to the Indianapolis Colts (1 p.m. ET, FOX) at Lucas Oil Stadium.
However, Indianapolis has consistently been a tough out all season, entering Week 12 with an 8-3 mark against the spread.
Our Lions vs. Colts prediction projects Indianapolis to lean on the legs of Anthony Richardson and keep things closer than many might expect as part of our NFL Week 12 predictions.
We also looked at this game with our Lions vs. Colts play props.
Lions vs. Colts predictions
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Colts +7.5 (-115 via BetMGM) vs. Lions ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Anthony Richardson Over 40.5 rushing yards (-109 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Lions vs. Colts ATS prediction: Week 12
Colts to cover the spread: +7.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.5%
Terms and conditions apply.
Detroit may have been historically dominant so far this season, but it also isn’t invincible.
The lion's share of their plus-159 point differential has been compiled in games vs. the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, and Dallas Cowboys - beating those opponents by a combined score of 151-29. Five of their other seven games have been decided by a touchdown or less, including three of four on the road.
Meanwhile, Indy has made a habit of keeping things close with opponents all year long, seeing all but one of its 11 games decided by a single possession.
A lot of that is due to the Colts’ ability to shorten the game by churning out yards on the ground, something Indy will certainly look to do again this week with quarterback Anthony Richardson and running back Jonathan Taylor.
Detroit has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in the NFL, but that’s partly a product of building big early leads and forcing teams to resort to the pass.
When teams are able to stay committed to the run game, they’ve averaged a respectable 4.3 yards per attempt - and some of that was before Pro Bowl defensive end Aidan Hutchinson and linebacker Alex Anzalone went down with injuries.
This is the first time all year that the Lions have laid more than four points on the road. Early bettors aren’t buying it, causing the line to gradually drift toward Indianapolis since the open.
Count me among those selling Detroit at its peak, especially against a hungry Indy team still very much alive in the AFC playoff race.
Lions vs. Colts best bet
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Anthony Richardson Over 40.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -109 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.2%
Caesars is a 21+ product
The Lions clearly don’t have many weaknesses, but defending mobile quarterbacks appears to be one of them.
Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, and Sam Darnold have all run for 38 yards or more vs. the Lions this season, while Brock Purdy put up 48 rushing yards against them in last year’s NFC championship game.
Richardson appears poised to exploit that weakness after running for a pair of touchdowns last week against the Jets, including the winner in the final minute.
He’s posted at least 45 rushing yards in three of his six full appearances this season, and broken off runs of at least 19 yards in four of them.
Richardson has also been quick to pull the ball down and run in his recent starts, averaging 10 rushing attempts in his last three games.
If that volume continues, he should clear this total with ease against a Detroit defense allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 6.5 yards per carry.
Lions vs. Colts odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Lions vs. Colts live odds
Lions vs. Colts opening odds:
- Lions: -7 (-105 via FanDuel)
- Colts: +7 (-115 via FanDuel)
Lions vs. Colts game info
- When: Sunday, Nov. 24
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Lions -7.5 (-104) via FanDuel
NFL betting odds pages
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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