Giants vs. Cowboys Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: NFL Thanksgiving
Two NFC East rivals do battle in the second of three NFL games on Thanksgiving Day as the Dallas Cowboys (4-7) host the New York Giants (2-9) at AT&T Stadium for a 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
The Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites to beat the Giants for the 15th time in their last 16 meetings, though our Giants vs. Cowboys prediction offers a contrarian play in this matchup as part of our NFL Thanksgiving picks.
Our Gabe Henderson offers more insight on this matchup with his Giants vs. Cowboys player prop bets.
Giants vs. Cowboys predictions
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Giants +3.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Cowboys ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Malik Nabers Over 53.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Giants vs. Cowboys ATS prediction: NFL Thanksgiving
Giants to cover the spread: +3.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
Don’t overreact to last week
Early betting splits are more than 4-to-1 in favor of the Cowboys as part of bettors' NFL Week 13 predictions, which is unsurprising given how public of a team they are and the manner in which both teams executed last week.
Dallas scored 34 points against Washington, but two of its touchdowns came on kickoff returns. The Cowboys are not all of a sudden an offensive juggernaut, especially since they scored 16 total points in Cooper Rush’s first two starts this season.
New York hasn't led in any game since Week 5 and fell to 0-6 at home for the first time since 1974. The Giants had the look of a team last week that was content losing to improve their NFL draft odds and wind up with the top overall pick.
When handicapping this game, New York’s motivation level has to be among the biggest keys to consider. I expect a much more spirited effort away from the noise of a fan base that has turned sour.
That's especially true since another uninspired performance on national television could spell doom for the tenures of head coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen - with some calling for their jobs already.
Dallas struggling at home
The Cowboys’ -118 point differential at AT&T Stadium is the third-worst in NFL history through a team’s first five home games, trailing only the 2013 Jaguars (-123) and the 1966 Falcons (-119).
Prior to Dallas’ win last week, it was outscored by 102 points in its previous five games overall. And now all of a sudden the Cowboys are staring at issues with their kicking game after Brandon Aubrey missed two field goals last week.
Those misses could be in the back of his mind this week. In a game with a spread just north of a field goal, those points matter.
History against Cowboys on Thanksgiving
Dallas ended a four-year cover-less streak on Thanksgiving with a 45-10 win over Washington last year. But Dallas is now just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 Thanksgiving games, failing to cover by more than nine points on average in those games.
The Cowboys also have not won and covered on Thanksgiving games in back-to-back years since 2008-09.
I would not put any Giants backers off waiting to get their wagers in until closer to kickoff, as the line had reached +4 across our best sportsbooks earlier in the week.
While I would pass at +3 or lower, I am still playing this at +3.5 at BetMGM, which is offering -110 odds with a winning $10 wager returning a $9.09 profit.
Giants vs. Cowboys best bet
Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Malik Nabers Over 62.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
Nabers' production has been trending down amid New York’s quarterback struggles. After averaging 22.9 fantasy points per game through his first four games in the league, that points per game average has dropped to 12.1 over the last five.
However, this is still a confident four-star play as he has cleared this projected twice in that poor five-game stretch. He's also still seeing eight or more targets in every game except for his seven targets in his first-ever NFL game.
The area to do damage against Dallas’ secondary is on the perimeter, as the Cowboys entered last week ranked in the bottom seven in receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
Nabers entered last week with a 33.8% target share, 49.5% air-yard share, and 43.7% first-read share. And while much of that came with Daniel Jones under center, he still managed to haul in six of his nine targets for 64 yards from Tommy DeVito last week.
Nabers’ line was as low as 53.5 on Tuesday afternoon, but the increase in the total could possibly be based on the speculation that Drew Lock could start if DeVito is ruled out with a forearm injury.
bet365 is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering standard -110 juice to back the Over, as Caesars has the Over juiced as high as -128.
Giants vs. Cowboys odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Giants vs. Cowboys live odds
Giants vs. Cowboys opening odds:
- Giants: +3.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
- Cowboys: -3.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
Giants vs. Cowboys game info
- When: Thursday, Nov. 28
- Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: Indoors
NFL betting odds pages
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- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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