NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds 2024-25: Burrow, Cousins Co-Favorites Entering Week 12
Kirk Cousins let his foot off the gas for two weeks, which cost him his sole possession of to spot on the Comeback Player of the Year odds leaderboard.
Joe Burrow has thrown for 663 yards, seven touchdowns, and no picks in that span, joining Cousins as co-favorites at FanDuel. Cousins has held on to his favorite status at two of our best NFL prop betting sites, albeit with the slimmest of advantages.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
| Player | FanDuel odds | Implied probability | Profit on a $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | +150 | 40.00% | $15 |
| Kirk Cousins | +150 | 40.00% | $15 |
| J.K. Dobbins | +450 | 18.18% | $45 |
| Kyler Murray | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Nick Chubb | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Justin Herbert | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Damar Hamlin | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +6000 | 1.64% | $600 |
| Sam Darnold | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Christian Gonzalez | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
Here are the other newsworthy CPOY notes:
- Cousins (+150) threw two picks and no interceptions in Weeks 10 and 11
- With the New York Jets losing seven of their last eight, Aaron Rodgers' Comeback Player of the Year odds have fallen off a cliff, lengthening to +6000
- Six of the top 10 players on the oddsboard are quarterbacks
- J.K. Dobbins, Nick Chubb, and Justin Herbert saw their Comeback Player of the Year odds shorten significantly after a successful Week 11
NFL Comeback Player of the Year favorite
Kirk Cousins (+150)
Despite a two-game blip on the radar, Cousins has his Atlanta Falcons sitting atop the NFC South through 11 weeks. He sits third in passing yards with 2,807 entering Week 12. While he'll want to get the woeful Denver performance out of his system as soon as possible, he's only one game removed from tossing for 307 yards.
He threw for seven touchdown passes in Weeks 8 and 9 and will be looking forward to the challenge of playing the Los Angeles Chargers, who Joe Burrow just tore apart for 356 yards and three touchdowns.
Cousins pushing a club that hasn't made the playoffs since 2017 to the postseason could be enough to take this narrative-based award, especially if he keeps sprinkling in statistical eruptions.
But he'll have to fend off a prolific Burrow to do so. A winning $10 bet will yield a $15 profit.
Best odds: +150 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 40%
My NFL Comeback Player of the Year player to watch
Damar Hamlin (+3000)
Hamlin's odds have been gradually lengthening for about a month, and they took another hit in Week 11, decreasing from +2200 to +3000.
We've backed Hamlin since the start, even before he was listed at our best sports betting sites, but our expectations are starting to wane. Let's see how he reacts when the Buffalo Bills take on the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13.
Several players, particularly the six gunslingers among the 10 favorites, will have better stats when all is said and done. Still, perhaps no player in the league has the Comeback Player of the Year narrative quite like Hamlin's.
Best odds: +3000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 3.23%
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds over time
(Odds via bet365)
| Name | Opening odds (May 8) | July 18 | Aug. 14 | Oct. 11 | Nov. 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | +100 | +125 | +140 | +250 | +5000 |
| Joe Burrow | +200 | +300 | +300 | +400 | +150 |
| Anthony Richardson | +750 | +600 | +650 | +5000 | OFF |
| Kirk Cousins | +500 | +500 | +500 | +280 | +140 |
| Nick Chubb | +2000 | +850 | +900 | +1600 | +2000 |
| Russell Wilson | +1200 | +3000 | +3000 | OFF | OFF |
| Daniel Jones | +2500 | +1600 | +1600 | +2500 | OFF |
| Damar Hamlin | OFF | OFF | OFF | +1200 | +3000 |
| Deshaun Watson | +1500 | +2500 | +3000 | +15000 | OFF |
| Tank Dell | +2500 | +4000 | +6500 | +5000 | +10000 |
| Justin Herbert | +2500 | +4000 | +5000 | +10000 | +2500 |
NFL Comeback Player of the Year voting criteria
The NFL Comeback Player of the Year voting criteria had long been unclear. Players have won it after returning from a major injury (Alex Smith), after beating an illness (Eric Berry), after a breakout season (Geno Smith), and after a career renaissance (Ryan Tannehill).
The award has been unpredictable, and Flacco winning it over Hamlin was the perfect example of that, leading to a change.
Under the new voting criteria, The Associated Press has emphasized that only players returning from injury or illness should be the focus of the award. Players who are bouncing back from a bad season or have improved from mediocre to great shouldn't win the award.
“The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season,” AP senior NFL writer Rob Maaddi, who oversees All-Pro and NFL awards voting, told Pro Football Talk.
While the new criteria is used as a guideline for voters, they can still support players like Smith or Flacco.
For example, new Pittsburgh Steelers QB Russell Wilson could still theoretically win the award, he just holds a less likely chance now that the criteria has been adjusted.
Past NFL Comeback Player of the Year winners
| Season | Player | Preseason odds | Team | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Joe Flacco | OFF | Browns | QB |
| 2022 | Geno Smith | OFF | Seahawks | QB |
| 2021 | Joe Burrow | +800 | Bengals | QB |
| 2020 | Alex Smith | +300 | Washington Football Team | QB |
| 2019 | Ryan Tannehill | OFF | Titans | QB |
| 2018 | Andrew Luck | +450 | Colts | QB |
| 2017 | Keenan Allen | +900 | Chargers | WR |
| 2016 | Jordy Nelson | +600 | Packers | WR |
| 2015 | Eric Berry | +500 | Chiefs | S |
| 2014 | Rob Gronkowski | +1000 | Patriots | TE |
How to bet on NFL Comeback Player of the Year
Of the NFL futures markets, NFL Comeback Player of the Year may be the strangest to bet on, especially with how last year played out - giving it to the most out-of-nowhere performance (Flacco).
This award is almost a lock to go to whichever of the returning QBs is most impressive, which is why the best move is to target whichever passer you believe has the best shot at returning to Pro Bowl form and contending for the playoffs.
How to read NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
Reading NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds is straightforward. Odds are usually presented in a format like +500 or -200. Positive odds (e.g., +500) show how much profit you’d make on a $100 bet.
For example, a $100 bet at +500 odds would win you $500, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $600. Negative odds (e.g., -200) indicate how much you need to bet to win $100. So, a $200 bet at -200 odds would win you $100, plus your $200 stake, totaling $300.
These odds also reflect the probability of a player winning the Comeback Player of the Year. Lower odds (e.g., +300) suggest a higher likelihood, while higher odds (e.g., +2000) indicate a lower probability. Sportsbooks adjust these odds based on performance, injuries, and betting patterns.
If Aaron Rodgers gets +500 odds and Joe Burrow gets +1000, Rodgers is considered more likely to win. If you bet $100 on Rodgers and he wins, you’d get $600 back ($500 profit + $100 stake). Understanding these odds helps you make informed betting decisions and assess potential returns.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year FAQs
Who is the favorite for NFL Comeback Player of the Year?
Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins and Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow are the favorites at FanDuel while getting +150 odds. That translates to a 55.56% implied probability via our odds calculator.
Who was the NFL Comeback Player of the Year last year?
Cleveland Browns QB Joe Flacco was named the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year for the 2023-24 season after signing with the team for the final five games.
When will the 2024-25 NFL Comeback Player of the Year be announced?
The NFL Comeback Player of the Year will be announced at the NFL Honors show during Super Bowl week in early February 2025.
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