First Touchdown Scorer Predictions for Thanksgiving Week 13
The Thanksgiving Day football tradition continues this year with a three-game slate to kick off Week 13 in the NFL.
This week's first touchdown scorer predictions for Thanksgiving are looking at a trio of players, one of which we also picked for our anytime touchdown scorer predictions.
We start the day with the Detroit Lions playing host to the Chicago Bears at 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS). We dove deep into that game with our Bears vs. Lions prediction and Bears vs. Lions parlay, both of which expect a blowout for the home team, contrary to our first touchdown pick.
Following that, at 4:30 p.m. ET, the New York Giants square off against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium (FOX). We're backing the road underdogs with our Giants vs. Cowboys prediction. Additionally, our favorite touchdown pick from our Giants vs. Cowboys player prop bets mirrors our selection here.
Finally, the Green Bay Packers welcome the Miami Dolphins to Lambeau Field for the 8:20 p.m. ET night cap (NBC). Our Dolphins vs. Packers prediction takes a different tight end to score in that game than the one we're focusing on here.
Be sure to check out all of our NFL Thanksgiving picks, which help to form our NFL Week 13 predictions.
First touchdown scorer predictions: Thanksgiving
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Bears vs. Lions first touchdown scorer prediction: Roschon Johnson, RB ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +2000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 4.76%
Johnson has been the first player to find the end zone for his team in each of his last two games. Last week, he was the first to cross the goal line for either team.
The Bears’ second-year back has become a red-zone threat this year. Johnson has 14 carries inside the 20-yard line, which are only five fewer than his backfield counterpart D’Andre Swift. He’s scored all six of his touchdowns from this range this year. Accordingly, we're fading Swift with our Bears vs. Lions player prop bets.
Touchdowns have not come easy against Detroit’s defense this season as the Lions are allowing the fewest six-point plays per game (1.5). Even still, I love the value of a red-zone threat breaking that trend.
Giants vs. Cowboys first touchdown scorer prediction: Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +650 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 13.33%
Tracy has three rushing touchdowns this season, which tie him with Devin Singletary for the most on the team. In fact, the rookie running back has as many rushing touchdowns as the entire Dallas backfield.
All three games in which Tracy has scored, his touchdown has been the first, and in two cases the only one of the game for his team.
The Cowboys are allowing the most rushing touchdowns per game (1.7) this season. That number explodes to 2.8 at home.
Dolphins vs. Packers first touchdown scorer prediction: Jonnu Smith, TE ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +1600 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 5.88%
It's not just the touchdown props that we're backing Smith to cash on, as we're riding with his Over receiving yards as part of our Dolphins vs. Packers player prop bets.
Smith has the second-most receiving touchdowns for the Dolphins this season. He’s crossed the goal line in three games this year and in all three, he was the first player to reach the end zone in the contest.
The Packers have surrendered a touchdown to the tight end position in two of their last four matchups. including one to George Kittle last week.
Smith is the third-most targeted Miami pass-catcher inside the 20-yard line. Entering this week, Smith has scored the first touchdown in back-to-back games. Should the Dolphins get close to the end zone on their opening drive, I anticipate him getting plenty of work in the red zone.
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