First Touchdown Scorer Predictions for Monday Night Football Week 11
It’s a showdown in the Lonestar State to end Week 11 as the Houston Texans travel up I-45 to take on the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football.
The stars will be bright at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, when the game gets underway at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN; the Texans are 7-point favorites.
My first touchdown scorer predictions for Monday Night Football this week will rely on two pivotal players on each team. One has been a scoring machine for his squad, and the other is an explosive competitor in a highly favorable matchup. We analyze the matchups further in our Texans vs. Cowboys prediction.
As proven by Will Dissly last night, the first touchdown market can be uncertain. However, as we continue our Week 11 NFL predictions, we expect these two teams to lean heavily on their stars, who provide plenty of value at their current odds.
First touchdown scorer predictions Monday Night Football: Week 11
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Texans first touchdown scorer prediction: Joe Mixon, RB ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +340 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 22.22%
Mixon has been on a roll, scoring at least one touchdown in all but one of his seven games this season. His last two have counted as the first touchdown of the game.
The former Cincinnati Bengals running back has garnered 53% of his team’s total carries this season. He also continues to be a red zone threat, ranking fifth in the league in red zone carries at the running back position despite missing three games this year.
This week, he faces a Cowboys defense that is allowing a league-worst 2.8 rushing touchdowns per game at home this season. Also working in his favor is the fact that Dallas has only crossed the goal line first in two of their nine games this year.
Our Philip Wood thinks that Mixon is primed for a big day in his Texans vs. Cowboys MNF prop bets and Mike Spector thinks it could be a slow day for his signal-caller in his C.J. Stroud MNF player prop bets.
I believe Mixon is strong enough to exploit this weakness and turn your $10 bet into a $34 profit.
Cowboys first touchdown scorer prediction: CeeDee Lamb, WR ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +1100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 8.33%
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It’s hard to ignore when a single player accounts for over 25% of his team’s total offensive touchdowns. This is especially true on a team that has only scored 15 offensive touchdowns in nine games this season.
Dallas will need Lamb to step up early with Cooper Rush taking the snaps for Dallas this week. Luckily, the duo are not strangers having connected for 15 touchdowns in 26 games together with the Cowboys.
Houston is tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars allowing the most passing touchdowns per game (2.1) this year. That number jumps up to 3.0 on the road.
Lamb has been out of the end zone for the last two weeks, but I anticipate the drought will end. Hopefully, for us and the Cowboys, it will end early. A $10 wager here will bring back $110 in profit.
Find more plays for the Cowboys' top wideout in our CeeDee Lamb MNF player prop bets.
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