Expert Super Bowl Long-Shot Picks: Chiefs vs. Eagles Expert Predictions, Long-Shot Odds
Super Bowl 2025 is here with the Chiefs vs. Eagles matchup tonight at 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX) from the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, which means bettors are looking to find some longer shots plays worth backing.
Our Super Bowl long-shot predictions and expert picks look at a few different markets at our best NFL betting sites to try and find the best value on the board. We also highlight some of the top Super Bowl novelty props available ahead of the Big Game.
Super Bowl long-shot predictions & expert picks
Picks made by Andrew Reid, Sean Tomlinson, Gabe Henderson, and Gary Pearson.
- Andrew Reid's Super Bowl long-shot prediction: Octopus to be scored by any player? Yes (+1400 via Caesars)
- Sean Tomlinson's Super Bowl long-shot prediction: Noah Gray 1st-half touchdown (+1000 via FanDuel)
- Gabe Henderson's Super Bowl long-shot prediction: Any player to break the Super Bowl rushing yards record (+1100 via DraftKings)
- Gary Pearson's Super Bowl long-shot prediction: Dallas Goedert 1st touchdown scorer (+1900 via DraftKings)
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Chiefs vs. Eagles expert long-shot picks
Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Octopus to be scored by any player? Yes
Best odds: +1400 via Caesars | Implied probability: 6.67%
Caesars is a 21+ product
It wouldn't be shocking to see Super Bowl 2025 turn into an Octopus’ Garden given three key players: Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, and Jake Elliott.
Elliott won’t get the Octopus himself, of course, but his kicking could lead to the necessity. While he only missed one extra point in the regular season, he’s just 9-for-12 in the postseason. The Eagles might need to get back on level footing with an eight-point scoring play if they drop an easy point.
And therein comes Barkley and Hurts. The running back-quarterback duo is amongst the league’s most dangerous offensively, so why not roll the dice on one of them punching in a touchdown and the two-point conversion in a game where every single point will count? They’re both lethal around the goal line.
–– Andrew Reid
Noah Gray 1st-half touchdown
Best odds: +1000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 9.09%
Sure, the other Chiefs tight end is the superstar both on and off the field, and Travis Kelce is front and center in the Taylor Swift prop bets for the 2025 Super Bowl. But Gray has quietly been a productive and consistent red-zone option for the Chiefs.
His five touchdowns this season are one more than his total over the pass catcher’s previous three campaigns combined. Four of those scores came in the red zone on just 10 targets, while Kelce scored three times near pay dirt on 26 looks. Gray is an efficient and sneaky outlet near the opposition’s goal line.
–– Sean Tomlinson
Any player to break the Super Bowl rushing yards record
Best odds: +1100 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 8.33%
My favorite long-shot play in Chiefs vs. Eagles is a Super Bowl record special offered by DraftKings. The sportsbook is offering a price of +1100 for any player to rush for 205-plus yards, but let’s not kid ourselves: this is a Saquon Barkley prop.
If Philadelphia is going to win this game, it’ll likely need a significant performance from the best running back in the NFL. Barkley’s rushed for 442 yards and five touchdowns already this postseason on just 66 carries.
If he maintains this superhuman pace (6.7 yards per carry), he would need 31 touches, something he’s done already this year. Barkley has gone over 204 yards twice this year, and with Kansas City being exposed by James Cook and Joe Mixon, the Eagles’ superstar making it three isn’t out of the question as he takes aim at Super Bowl records.
–– Gabe Henderson
Dallas Goedert 1st touchdown scorer
Best odds: +1900 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 5%
I love the matchup for Goedert versus the Chiefs. He ripped the Washington Commanders apart for 85 yards on seven catches and will face a Chiefs defense that has trouble defending tight ends in the middle of the field.
Goedert should be primed to hit pay dirt with much of the Chiefs' defensive attention focused on stopping A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Barkley, and Hurts. He scored a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers in the wild-card round and had two touchdowns in his last five regular-season games.
In addition, the Chiefs have struggled in the first half of Super Bowls, which should allow the Eagles to jump on top early. A winning $10 bet at our best Super Bowl betting sites will profit $190.
–– Gary Pearson
Chiefs vs. Eagles odds
Here are the latest NFL odds for Chiefs vs. Eagles from our best NFL betting sites.
What time is Super Bowl 2025?
- When: Sunday, Feb. 9
- Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Chiefs -1.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
Super Bowl betting odds pages
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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