Dolphins vs. Packers TNF Prop Bets, Odds: Thursday Night Football on Thanksgiving
Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers host Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins on Thanksgiving night, and Love's team is a -3.5 favorite by the latest Thursday Night Football odds.
The Week 13 Thursday Night Football Thanksgiving game features the Packers hosting the Dolphins for an 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock) contest at Lambeau Field.
Miami has won three games in a row, but should we anticipate its solid play to continue when making the best Dolphins vs. Packers TNF prop bets?
Love and the Packers’ offense are coming off a 38-point game. Can the Dolphins, who have held three consecutive opponents below 20 points, keep Love in check?
And, on the other side, which Dolphins’ weapons have the chance for a big game. We dive into this contest more in our Dolphins vs. Packers prediction as part of our NFL Week 13 predictions.
Dolphins vs. Packers player props: Thursday Night Football on Thanksgiving
Odds as of Wednesday and subject to change.
- De’Von Achane touchdown pick: Anytime touchdown scorer (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jordan Love Over 240.5 passing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jonnu Smith Over 42.5 receiving yards (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
De’Von Achane anytime touchdown scorer (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
No player on the Dolphins’ offense has benefitted from the return of Tagovailoa more than Achane. He’s scored six touchdowns in his last five games, and at least one in four of those contests.
The Packers’ defense is solid against the pass and the run, allowing just 0.9 rushing touchdowns and 1.3 passing touchdowns per game. But they still allow touchdowns, and Achane is a legitimate threat in both the running and passing game. He has eight total touchdowns this season. Five of them are through the air and three are on the ground.
To get the most consistent scorer in the matchup as an anytime scorer for -105 is too good to pass up. The price becomes even more enticing when you realize that BetMGM is asking -130 for one of our best NFL Thanksgiving picks.
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%
Jordan Love Over 240.5 passing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Love threw for only 163 yards in last week’s blowout win over the San Francisco 49ers. However, he’s topped 260 yards in two of his last three, and 240.5 in five of his eight games this season.
On paper, the Dolphins’ pass defense is one of the best in the league, allowing just 197.5 yards per game. However, since the return of Tagovailoa, the last five quarterbacks to face the Dolphins have all thrown for at least 222 yards, and three of them have topped 280.
The total for this prop is listed from 240.5 to 245.5. BetMGM has the highest total and the worst price for the Over. While bet365 is offering -110 for Over 245.5, needing five extra yards for a slightly better price isn’t worth the risk.
Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%
Jonnu Smith Over 42.5 receiving yards (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Smith has been phenomenal for the Dolphins this season, totaling 535 yards thus far. That’s only 36 yards behind Tyreek Hill, the team’s leading receiver. Smith has gone for at least 45 yards in four consecutive games, and he’s gone for 87 or more in back-to-back contests.
The Packers rank 13th in total yards allowed to tight ends, giving up 632 through 11 games. Smith has been targeted at least six times in six of his last seven games, so in a matchup that is fine, I don’t see any reason for the Dolphins to go away from the most consistent part of their passing game.
You can get -110 for Over 45.5 at bet365, but I’ll take -120 for Over 42.5 at BetMGM. Smith has games of 45 and 46 yards in two of his last four, so 42.5 is the much safer play.
Andrew Brennan is expecting the Dolphins tight to score as part of his best anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Thanksgiving, while Rodrigo Villagomez is taking that bet one step further with his first touchdown scorer predictions for Thanksgiving.
Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Dolphins vs. Packers odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Thursday Night Football game info
- When: Thursday, Nov. 28
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wis.)
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock/Universo
- Weather: 22 degrees, 8% chance of precipitation, wind 15 mph W
- Favorite: Packers -3 (-120 via BetMGM)
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