NFL Coach of the Year Betting Trends and Tips: Will 1st-Year Coach Win Award?
The NFL Coach of the Year odds are among the most interesting to explore at our best NFL betting sites during the preseason, as the market regularly includes a host of new names while the other major awards feature the usual suspects.
Following Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski's second Coach of the Year win in the last four seasons, there's a wide variety of fresh faces sitting atop this year's oddsboard.
Between the return of Jim Harbaugh, the Matt Eberflus Redemption Tour, and the battle of Nick Sirianni coaching tree members, there are more ongoing storylines than in the latter half of "Lost."
Unlike many of the other NFL futures markets, Coach of the Year is mostly narrative-based. Rarely does the "best" coach - that is to say, the coach with the best record - win, as the honor is more often bestowed upon someone who's led their team to a turnaround of sorts.
Let's dive into the history and recent trends of this award to better inform our bets at the best sports betting sites ahead of the 2024-25 NFL season.
NFL Coach of the Year odds
NFL Coach of the Year odds from our best sports betting apps as of Aug. 13 | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Harbaugh | +850 | +900 | +1000 🔥 | +900 | +800 ❄️ |
| Matt Eberflus | +900 | +1000 | +900 | +800 ❄️ | +1000 |
| Robert Saleh | +1200 ❄️ | +1800 | +1800 | +1500 | +1600 |
| Matt LaFleur | +1200 | +1300 | +1400 | +1400 | +1000 ❄️ |
| Raheem Morris | +1300 | +1200 | +1100 ❄️ | +1400 🔥 | +1200 |
| DeMeco Ryans | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +1200 ❄️ |
| Shane Steichen | +1500 | +1400 | +1500 | +1600 🔥 | +1400 |
| Jonathan Gannon | +1600 | +1500 | +1600 | +1000 ❄️ | +1400 |
| Dan Campbell | +1800 ❄️ | +2500 | +2000 | +2200 | +2500 |
| Dave Canales | +1800 | +1600 | +1800 | +1600 | +1800 |
NFL Coach of the Year recent winners
| Year | Coach | Team | Record | Record year before | Year of hiring | Opening odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Kevin Stefanski | Browns | 11-6 | 7-10 | 2020 | +3000 |
| 2022 | Brian Daboll | Giants | 9-7-1 | 4-13 | 2022 | +1400 |
| 2021 | Mike Vrabel | Titans | 12-5 | 11-5 | 2018 | +2500 |
| 2020 | Kevin Stefanski | Browns | 11-5 | 6-10 | 2020 | +2000 |
| 2019 | John Harbaugh | Ravens | 14-2 | 10-6 | 2008 | +2800 |
| 2018 | Matt Nagy | Bears | 12-4 | 5-11 | 2018 | +875 |
| 2017 | Sean McVay | Rams | 11-5 | 4-12 | 2017 | +5000 |
| 2016 | Jason Garrett | Cowboys | 13-3 | 4-12 | 2011 | +2800 |
| 2015 | Ron Rivera | Panthers | 15-1 | 7-8-1 | 2011 | +4000 |
| 2014 | Bruce Arians | Cardinals | 11-5 | 10-6 | 2013 | N/A |
Trends among NFL Coach of the Year winners
- Eight of the last nine winners (Arians excluded) were given odds longer than +1000 during the preseason
- Seven of the last 10 winners coached for teams coming off a losing season in the previous year
- Six of the last 10 winners coached for teams that won the division, but only one of the previous four did so (Tennessee Titans in 2021)
- Four of the last five winners coached in the AFC, with the previous five before that all coaching in the NFC
- Four of the last 10 winners did so in their first year as head coach with the team
- Two of the last 10 winners coached the team with the NFL MVP: Harbaugh with Lamar Jackson in 2019, and Rivera with Cam Newton in 2015
- Two of the last 10 winners coached for the team with the best record in the NFL (Harbaugh in 2019 and Rivera in 2015)
- Only one coach (Stefanski) has won more than once during the last decade
- Zero of the last 10 winners were from the AFC East or AFC West
What to look for
Now that we've seen some of the recent winners and the trends associated with them, let's get into some tips for betting on NFL Coach of the Year in 2024-25.
- I'll start with this one because it's always enticing when you see his extremely long odds. Don't waste a bet on Andy Reid (+6000 via bet365). The Kansas City Chiefs could go 17-0, and Reid would still probably not win Coach of the Year, simply because Patrick Mahomes is his quarterback.
- I'd suggest leaving Robert Saleh (+1800 via FanDuel) alone at his relatively short odds. The story will be Aaron Rodgers if the New York Jets bounce back this year, not Saleh. And that's a big "if," since the team is relying on a 40-year-old coming off a torn Achilles.
- Of the top five contenders on the oddsboard, Jim Harbaugh's (+1000 via BetMGM) Los Angeles Chargers are coming off the worst season at 5-12. The Chargers also lost their top two wide receivers this offseason, and Justin Herbert is already injured. This profiles as one of the most risky bets, but also the easiest win if the Chargers are somehow good in 2024.
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- Dan Campbell (+2500 via bet365) failed to win this award in 2023 despite leading the Detroit Lions to their first division title in 20 years with a 12-5 record. That was better than both Stefanski's record (11-6) and second-place DeMeco Ryans' showing (10-7). It's difficult to imagine him somehow winning it this year.
- Ryans (+1400 via Caesars) very nearly won the award last year, losing out by just one first-place vote. His team plays in what will be a competitive division, which will help his cause if the Houston Texans win it comfortably.
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- Raheem Morris (+1400 via Caesars) could struggle to outshine his players if the Atlanta Falcons produce a great season. Would he get the credit? Or would it go to Comeback Player of the Year odds front-runner Kirk Cousins? Or Offensive Player of the Year odds contender Bijan Robinson? Additionally, the team still went 7-10 in 2023 with Arthur Smith seemingly trying to sabotage Atlanta.
What's the bet?
DeMeco Ryans
My favorite NFL Coach of the Year bet in the middle of August is on Ryans, who was a slip of the thumb/pen stroke from winning last year.
With a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud, first-year coach Ryans took a team that finished 3-13-1 in 2022 and won the division. Now the Texans have made various improvements during the offseason and could be poised for a truly monster campaign.
Yes, just two of the last 10 Coach of the Year winners featured the MVP, and Stroud is one of my favorite MVP bets, as I outlined when discussing how you can use fantasy football to be a smarter bettor. However, it would be similar to Harbaugh's win in 2019.
The Texans, much like the Ravens in 2018, were already good last season with a rookie QB. Mind you, Jackson played far less as a rookie than Stroud did. But Ryans will get a lot of the credit if Houston takes that leap during Stroud's second year and he wins MVP.
Additionally, Ryans could benefit from some voter guilt following last year's tightest of losses. I think that puts him over the top.
Odds: +1400 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 6.67%
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