Should You Bet the Bills' Super Bowl Odds After Beating Chiefs?
To be the best, you've got to beat the best. And the Buffalo Bills are making one heck of a case for the crown after beating the two-time defending champions on Sunday.
The Bills scored one of the biggest statement wins by any team this season, ending the Kansas City Chiefs' unbeaten start and 15-game win streak with a 30-21 victory that helped shorten Buffalo's Super Bowl odds entering Week 12.
The win also vaulted Josh Allen to the top spot in the latest NFL MVP odds after he delivered what will likely be one of the signature plays of the 2024 NFL season to secure the win and extend the Bills' own win streak to six games.
Even after beating the previous title favorites, the Bills rank fourth across some of the best Super Bowl betting sites after Sunday's win. Should that still be the case as we look ahead to the NFL Week 12 odds?
Bills Super Bowl odds
Super Bowl odds courtesy of our best NFL betting sites as of Nov. 18.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +600 | +700 | +650 | +580 | +650 |
The Bills entered the season dealing as high as +1700 to win the Super Bowl with seven teams ranked above them at more than one of our best sportsbooks.
That feels like a major oversight nearly three months later, as Buffalo ranks second in point differential (+106) behind only the Detroit Lions (+159), who own the shortest Super Bowl odds entering Week 12.
Those two also rank first and second in net EPA per play and boast the longest active win streaks after the first 11 weeks of the season.
Yet Detroit is viewed as the best team in the NFL, while Buffalo is still a step behind in the public eye. Should that still be the case after Sunday?
New-look Bills offense heating up
Through the first six weeks of the season, the Bills' offense was missing a spark.
After trading away Stefon Diggs in the offseason, Buffalo ranked sixth in scoring offense (27.5 PPG) but sat 16th in total offense (309.7 YPG) and 19th in passing offense (194.2 YPG) with two ugly losses through the first half-dozen games.
Then general manager Brandon Beane swung a blockbuster trade for receiver Amari Cooper, and the Bills' offense finally came alive.
The five-time Pro Bowl wideout has been making plays all over the field, including a toe-tapping catch along the sidelines to extend a key scoring drive on Sunday:
Yet his mere presence has clearly activated something in Allen and this Bills offense, which is averaging the NFL's second-most points (30.8) and passing yards (274.2) since making that trade - even with Cooper missing two games due to injury.
Allen has also done a masterful job at taking care of the football, which has been an issue for the superstar quarterback his entire career.
He's thrown just five interceptions through 11 starts - 13 fewer than he had last season over 17 games - even though he's averaging more yards per attempt (7.5) than he did last year. He's also been sacked on just 3.69% of dropbacks, the best mark of his career.
Josh Allen MVP odds
Super Bowl odds courtesy of our best NFL betting sites as of Nov. 18.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| +150 | +150 | +150 | +160 |
Caesars is a 21+ product
It felt like a matter of time before Allen would force his way to the top of the MVP leaderboard. And he finally enjoyed his MVP moment on Sunday.
The Bills' dual-threat star finished with 262 passing yards and a score, but his 26-yard rushing touchdown on fourth down secured the win for Buffalo and likely earned a spot on every 2024 season highlight reel for years to come.
That play, coupled with the signature win over the previously unbeaten Chiefs, finally convinced the best NFL prop betting sites to move Allen to the top spot in the MVP race with just seven weeks left in the regular season.
With most books hanging +150 odds on the Bills QB, Allen's MVP odds are an outlier +160 via Caesars, where a winning $10 ticket would result in a $16 profit. At this rate, it's hard to knock a bet even at those short odds.
Can Buffalo's defense hold up?
There's a reason Buffalo was dealing as a 17/1 long shot entering the season - and it wasn't Allen or the offense.
Most of the skepticism about this group centered around its aging defense, especially after Beane jettisoned key contributors to save cap space this summer and seemingly didn't do much to replace those key losses.
Clearly, the strength of the Bills roster still lies on offense, but first-year defensive coordinator Bobby Babich has done a heck of a job leading a unit that complements what offensive coordinator Joe Brady is doing on the other side.
Entering Week 11, Buffalo ranked ninth in defensive DVOA while ranking eighth in opponent red-zone touchdown rate (47.2%) and points allowed per drive (1.8). Yet it thrived on turnovers, forcing them at the NFL's fourth-highest rate (17.5%).
Sure enough, in a critical test against Patrick Mahomes and the two-time defending champions, the Bills forced two miscues while harassing Mahomes with a relentless pass rush that ultimately helped extend Buffalo's six-game win streak.
The Bills have now forced a turnover in 20 straight games, and their 21 total takeaways are tied for the most in the league through 11 weeks.
That will be the key for this team to advance in the postseason and reach the Super Bowl for the first time in the Allen era. An offense's best friend is a defense that generates takeaways, and Buffalo appears to have the recipe for a deep run.
Should you bet the Bills to win the Super Bowl?
For years, Buffalo has felt like one of the handful of teams that you can pencil into January with a legitimate chance to make noise in February.
That wasn't the prevailing notion entering this year after a cap-cutting bonanza, but Allen's brilliance paired with an opportunistic defense spells a clear path to the Lombardi Trophy for a team that just downed the defending champs.
Let's not get carried away, though: a few hours before the Bills beat the Chiefs, the Lions were putting the finishing touches on their third win by at least 38 points in the last six weeks - sandwiched around wins over the Vikings, Packers, and Texans.
Detroit feels like the clear pick out of the NFC, while the AFC is full of juggernauts even after sloppy showings by the Chiefs and Ravens this week.
Still, it's hard to confidently put any of those teams ahead of the Bills with the way that Allen has played of late and, really, this entire season. And it feels like Buffalo's title odds of +700 via FanDuel - which would turn a $10 bet into a $70 profit - could look like a real bargain in a few months.
NFL betting odds pages
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