Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions Week 12: Sunday's Best TD Odds & Picks
After a few weeks with limited options, anytime touchdowns are back on the menu.
We're featuring four strong plays for our Week 12 anytime touchdown scorer predictions, a pair of which I released on X earlier this week.
Our first two picks this week come from the 1 p.m. ET window, and the wagers prove that even the worst games can provide good bets. We're featuring touchdown picks from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants and New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins.
Then we turn our attention to the Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders and a bit of a risky one, with the home team suffering from multiple injuries at running back.
Finally, we look to a man who seemingly puts a curse on his own running backs to go down at the 1-yard line. His odds have shortened to minus money, but there's still value on the king of the Tush Push.
Anytime touchdown scorer picks Week 12
Our NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the latest odds among the legal sportsbooks in your region on each of these picks.
Buccaneers vs. Giants anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Mike Evans, Buccaneers, WR ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +140 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 41.67%
Evans is set to return this week after missing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' last three games with a hamstring injury. The future Hall of Famer faces plenty of work to log his 11th straight 1,000-plus-yard season, but he was racking up touchdowns at an impressive rate to start the year.
Evans averaged just 47.9 receiving yards across his first seven contests, but he managed to score six touchdowns. We're getting a great price for him to pick up where he left off.
The Giants have been solid against wide receivers, ranking roughly middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed. But they've given up 10 touchdowns in 10 games.
Evans has been given the second-highest receiving TD projection this week at 0.57. However, his odds are significantly longer than those of either Amon-Ra St. Brown (0.61, -130 to score) or Tyreek Hill (0.54, +120 to score) - the two players with the closest projections to his mark.
I bet this on Thursday at +160, so the fact that it's already moved to +140 is telling. Make this one of your NFL Week 12 predictions before the price shortens further ahead of Sunday's game.
Patriots vs. Dolphins anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots, RB ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +130 via bet365 | Implied probability: 43.48%
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Stevenson hasn't been especially efficient in his last four games, but he's getting a ton of volume. He's recorded 15-plus touches in each of those outings, topping out at 24 last week against the Los Angeles Rams.
Stevenson faces the Miami Dolphins this week, and they've been tough on opposing receivers this year but very generous to running backs from a fantasy perspective. They're allowing 2.4 more half PPR fantasy points to opposing running backs versus the league average, and the team has given up 10 TDs to the position this year.
The tailback is getting a solid TD projection of 0.54 this week, largely due to his expected heavy usage. He's projected to rack up nearly 17 carries and just around 2.5 receptions, giving him plenty of opportunities to break free for a score.
Even if he's unable to break loose, the 230-pound back could be used to smash one in if the Patriots get close to the goal line.
Broncos vs. Raiders anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Ameer Abdullah, Raiders, RB ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +200 via bet365 | Implied probability: 33.33%
This is a risky one, because it's based entirely on one or both of Alexander Mattison and Zamir White missing Sunday's contest. Even then, we don't know if Abdullah will get significant work or if 2024 sixth-round pick Dylan Laube will be trusted with the ball.
However, with neither Mattison nor White practicing yet this week and Abdullah serving as a veteran who's been put in these positions in the past, I'll risk it for these +200 odds.
Our other best sports betting sites are pricing an Abdullah touchdown in a way that suggests the books believe he'll be the starter on Sunday, with FanDuel as short as +160.
Abdullah's TD projection isn't especially impressive, as it sits at just 0.19. However, that's with Mattison still projected for nearly seven carries and 0.19 TDs and White forecasted for five carries and 0.12 TDs.
I'm not suggesting those numbers will directly translate to Abdullah's projection. But even if his reaches around 0.30, this would at least be a "fair" price for him to score. That's why it's only three stars instead of four though, and it's why I might limit my bet to only $5, which would still result in a $10 profit.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Sunday Night Football
Eagles vs. Rams anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Jalen Hurts, Eagles, QB ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
It's gotten to the point that if the Philadelphia Eagles were on a bye, I might still bet on Hurts to score a TD.
The Eagles quarterback has used his legs (as well as the legs of some of his teammates) to find the end zone in five straight games, and he's scored a whopping nine times during that stretch.
Incredibly, Hurts has been given the second-best rushing TD projection of any player this week at 0.81, behind only Derrick Henry. Based on that number, we're getting solid value on him to score even at these minus-money odds.
The price is why I'm making this only a three-star play though. If you want longer odds, head to FanDuel to bet on two-plus touchdowns for Hurts at +480.
You could wager only $2.50 and still earn a tasty $12 profit if Hurts continues to work his Harry Potter-like magic on teammate Saquon Barkley and force him to go down at the 1-yard line.
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