Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions Week 10: Sunday's Best TD Odds & Picks
We're back with our anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Week 10, this time offering a quartet of picks for all four time slots.
We start in Munich, where German football fans will be treated to the battle of titans between the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers.
Then we move to the traditional early slate at 1 p.m. ET with another barn burner, this time focusing on the showdown between the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots.
Things really heat up when we head to the desert to find our top touchdown pick in the contest between the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals at 4:25 p.m. ET (this is the worst slate ever).
Finally, we get an actually compelling Sunday Night Football affair between the Detroit Lions and Houston Texans, and there's a little surprise for our TD pick from that game.
Be sure to check out all of our NFL Week 10 predictions for the best odds and picks for the entire weekend.
Anytime touchdown scorer picks Week 10
Our NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the latest odds among the legal sportsbooks in your region on each of these picks.
Giants vs. Panthers anytime touchdown scorer prediction from Munich: Tyrone Tracy Jr., Giants, RB ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 48.78%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. has fully established himself as the Giants' RB1.
Tracy racked up 17 touches to Devin Singletary's seven in Week 9 against the Washington Commanders. Now he gets perhaps the league's worst run defense, as the Carolina Panthers have allowed six teams' running backs to go for over 100 rushing yards against them, and two - the Chargers in Week 2 and Falcons in Week 6 - went for 200-plus yards.
Additionally, the Panthers have allowed 13 touchdowns to running backs through nine games, which is likely why Tracy is getting one of the very best touchdown projections this week.
His 0.79 TD projection is right in line with the likes of Kareem Hunt, J.K. Dobbins, James Conner, and Joe Mixon. But none of those players are trading anywhere close to plus money at our best NFL prop betting sites.
That makes sense, though, as Tracy's TD odds are much more in line with theirs at our other best NFL betting sites. So let's take advantage of this generous offering at DraftKings.
Our Connor Cooper is favoring the Giants to cover in this game as part of his Giants vs. Panthers early picks.
Patriots vs. Bears anytime touchdown scorer prediction: D'Andre Swift, Bears, RB ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 47.62%
Remember when the fantasy football community was fully out on D'Andre Swift after just three games with the Bears, attributing his success only to the Philadelphia Eagles' offensive line?
Well, since Week 3 Swift has racked up four touchdowns in his last five games, with last week's affair in Arizona the only one in which he didn't score.
That performance is likely helping us get a good number on Swift, as we're receiving plus-money odds despite a very favorable matchup.
The New England Patriots have allowed running backs from seven straight opponents to rush for over 100 yards, and they've given up 10 touchdowns to the position this season.
Swift's TD projection in Week 10 is similar to Tracy's at 0.75, and we're getting good plus-money odds once again through DraftKings. Therefore, if you wanted to parlay these first two picks for +330 odds at DraftKings, I'd have no issue with that.
Jets vs. Cardinals anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Davante Adams, Jets, WR ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +140 via Caesars | Implied probability: 41.67%
Caesars is a 21+ product
The Davante Adams-Aaron Rodgers connection finally paid dividends in Week 9.
Despite missing a significant chunk of the game due to a concussion check, Adams racked up seven catches for 91 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets.
He gets another favorable matchup against a Cardinals team that's stopped only one team's receivers from racking up 100-plus yards. That came because the Lions ran for nearly 200 yards and their tight ends piled up 70 receiving yards.
Adams is getting the joint-highest TD projection among all wide receivers in Week 10. But those in his company - Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson - were/are trading at minus money, while we're benefitting very nice odds on Adams to score.
I bet on Adams to score a TD last week at +155 odds, so this is a slightly worse price. However, I'm looking for value versus the projection and the rest of the market, not versus last week's number. So I'm hitting this again at +140.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Sunday Night Football
Lions vs. Texans anytime touchdown scorer prediction: David Montgomery + Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions, RB ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +250 via bet365 | Implied probability: 28.57%
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We've got a bit of a wild one here for our final TD prediction ahead of a Lions-Texans clash. Our Mike Spector looked over the Sunday Night Football odds, and he's favoring Detroit in his Lions vs. Texans early picks.
David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are getting two of the best touchdown projections among running backs on Sunday, but there isn't a ton of value in betting on either to score. So, you're probably wondering, if there isn't value on either of their odds to score, how is the parlay any different?
Well, because these are considered negatively correlated legs since they're running back teammates. That means the assumption is if one guy scores, the other is less likely. However, their projections aren't independent of each other. Gibbs is projected for 0.70 and Monty is projected for 0.65, and those projections recognize they're on the same team.
Gibbs and Montgomery have each logged seven touchdowns this season, and they've both scored in four of their nine games (Week 1, Week 3, Week 4, and Week 8).
Sure, Houston boasts one of the league's better run defenses after allowing only four TDs to running backs this campaign, but this Lions run game is different.
I'll bet on the duo to make it five of 10 games in which they both find the end zone, with a $10 winning wager resulting in $25 in profit at bet365.
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