Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions Thanksgiving: Thursday's Best TD Odds & Picks
We're being spoiled on Thursday, as football fans and bettors are treated to a trio of NFL Thanksgiving games beginning at 12:30 p.m. ET.
The NFL action kicks off right around lunchtime when the Detroit Lions host the Chicago Bears. The first of our anytime touchdown scorer predictions comes from that game, as we're targeting a running back who's trading at a long price due to his recent lack of goal-line usage.
Then we head to Dallas, where the Cowboys will host the New York Giants at 4:30 p.m. ET. There's nothing quite like enjoying your Thanksgiving dinner while watching Cooper Rush square off against Drew Lock - or maybe it'll be Tim Boyle, who knows. Fortunately, we're bringing you a tasty TD prop from that lackluster affair.
The night is capped off with a showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers. Though our Thursday Night Football odds are showing the Packers as 3.5-point favorites, we like a Dolphins player for our best TD bet.
We've put together so much more betting content as part of our NFL Week 13 predictions, so be sure to check it all out to maximize your potential winnings! And if you're interested only in Thursday's action, head to our NFL Thanksgiving picks page.
Anytime touchdown scorer picks: Thanksgiving
Our NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the latest odds among the legal sportsbooks in your region on each of these picks.
Bears vs. Lions anytime touchdown scorer prediction: D'Andre Swift, Bears, RB ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +180 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 35.71%
Our Bears vs. Lions prediction may be fading D'Andre Swift along with our Bears vs. Lions player prop bets, but I still see a ton of value on his TD prop.
Swift's work around the goal line has disappeared since the Bears fired their former offensive coordinator, as Roschon Johnson has been used to blast it in when Chicago gets down close. However, there's no real evidence to suggest that'll continue, as Johnson received just two carries last week.
Additionally, even if Swift isn't trusted with the majority of the goal-line work, he can score in different ways. Just like he did in Week 11 with a 39-yard carry.
Don't be surprised if Swift draws more targets than he's been getting the last couple of games, too. The Bears are serving as nearly 10-point underdogs in this one, meaning we could see Swift used in the passing game while the team tries to play catch-up during the second half.
He certainly possesses the talent to get loose and score on one of those plays, and these +180 odds are too good to pass up when we consider his 0.50 TD projection.
Giants vs. Cowboys anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Rico Dowdle, Cowboys , RB ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 47.62%
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Our Giants vs. Cowboys prediction expects a squeaky wheel game for New York's rookie wide receiver, but I'm much more interested in the opposing team's rushing attack.
Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle tied a season high last week with 22 touches, turning that into 98 total yards. I expect he'll receive a similar workload in Week 13 against a team that's allowed more than 100 rushing yards to opposing running backs in seven games this season.
This price is a good way to illustrate just how important of a role narrative plays.
Dowdle is projected for 0.51 TDs, and his volume has been a bit inconsistent throughout the year. However, his TD prop is trading at +110 compared to Swift's +180.
We're still getting good value, but it's not quite in four-star territory like our previous pick. Dowdle is now essentially a coin flip to score thanks to his growing role in this offense despite recording only 12 touches in Week 11.
For a further comparison, Johnson is trading at around +250 to score for the Bears. Meanwhile, Dowdle's backup Ezekiel Elliot (who is also used around the goal line occasionally) is closer to +350.
In the end, both Dowdle and Swift are almost equally as likely to score based on their projections. Accordingly, we're fading Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush in our Giants vs. Cowboys player props.
Dolphins vs. Packers anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Jonnu Smith, Dolphins, TE ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +250 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 28.57%
In a game featuring star offensive players such as DeVon Achane, Josh Jacobs, Tyreek Hill, Jayden Reed, and Jaylen Waddle, it's tight end Jonnu Smith who serves as our TD bet and one of our first touchdown scorer predictions for Thanksgiving.
Simply put, Smith is the alpha receiver in this Dolphins offense. He's racked up 19 targets in the last two games. Some believed his role would diminish when Tua Tagovailoa returned, but it's actually been growing.
Additionally, Smith has scored three TDs in those last two contests, and his projection for Thursday night is a solid 0.31.
I considered going with Packers tight end Tucker Kraft for this pick, as we did in our Dolphins vs. Packers prediction. Kraft and Smith are about equally as likely to score, so it's worth backing either one at this price.
Working in Smith's favor is that the Packers rank among the bottom 10 this year in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and a banged-up George Kittle most recently torched them just last week. We're expecting a similar performance as part of our Dolphins vs. Packers player props.
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