Tennessee vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds & Preview Today: Best Picks for Feb. 11
In an SEC showdown, Tennessee will look for revenge on the road against a Kentucky team it lost to just two weeks ago when the programs take the court at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky., tonight at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).
Despite the Wildcats' win last time around, our Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction and odds expect the March Madness odds-contending Volunteers to show up in a big way as a 3-point road favorite.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky predictions today
College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites.
- Against the spread pick: Tennessee -3 (-105 via Caesars) vs. Kentucky ⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Lamont Butler Under 11.5 points (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tennessee vs. Kentucky ATS prediction
Tennessee to cover the spread: -3 ⭐⭐⭐
The sky might as well be falling in Lexington with the way the back half of Mark Pope's first season as the bench boss has been going. Kentucky has dropped four of its last six games and is just 5-5 in SEC play. And its against the spread record in those games matches the team's conference record.
Although one of those wins, and covers, was against Tennessee, the Volunteers might have put themselves back on track in the three games that followed while beating No. 3 Florida, No. 21 Missouri, and Oklahoma by an average score of 73-59. They also held a Gators team that just knocked off No. 1 Auburn to only 44 points.
So while Kentucky's offense has been impressive this year, it's running into a buzzsaw with the Vols sitting third in the country in points allowed per game (59.2) and first in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. And the Wildcats' defense has looked like the worst in the SEC during its skid, meaning the Vols should be able to score enough to cover.
Kentucky is allowing the most points per game in the SEC (83.4), the most threes per outing (10.4), and the highest 2-point percentage (56.4%). With Chaz Lanier on offense and Zakai Zeigler on defense, Tennessee can cover and turn a $10 bet into a $9.52 profit.
Best odds: -105 via Caesars | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Best Tennesee vs. Kentucky pick
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Lamont Butler Under 11.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tennessee may not boast any serious Wooden Award odds contenders, but it does come with a team-first mentality on defense. Thanks to head coach Rick Barnes' style, Tennessee allows the fewest points per game in SEC play (62.8), the lowest field-goal percentage (37.9%), and the second-lowest 3-point percentage (29.3%).
Zeigler and the Vols' defense will be all over Lamont Butler, whose production has been sporadic lately. The San Diego State transfer has scored fewer than 12 points in four of his last five games while averaging just 9.4 points per game and shooting 14-for-41 (34.1%) from the floor.
There's no tougher team for Butler to face right now than Tennessee, which should be capable of handing him his 10th game with fewer than 12 points this season. If Tennessee's defense comes through, a $10 bet pays an $8 profit.
Best odds: -125 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 55.56%
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Live Tennessee vs. Kentucky odds
See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky opening odds
- Spread: Tennessee -1.5 (-110) | Kentucky +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 149 (-110) | Under 149 (-110)
- Moneyline: Tennessee -125 | Kentucky +105
Tennessee vs. Kentucky game info
- When: Tuesday, Feb. 11
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Rupp Arena (Lexington, Ky.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Tennessee -3 (-105 via Caesars)
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