Purdue vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds & AI Picks: Best Bets for Tonight's Big Ten Matchup
As both Purdue and Michigan State attempt to close the gap with Michigan atop the Big Ten standings, the Spartans welcome the Boilermakers to Breslin Center in East Lansing, Mich. tonight at 7 p.m. ET (Peacock).
Despite the Boilermakers' struggles in recent outings that have hurt their March Madness odds, our Purdue vs. Michigan State prediction and odds believe Matt Painter's team will come to play as a 3.5-point road underdog.
Purdue vs. Michigan State predictions today
College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites.
- Against the spread pick: Purdue +3.5 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Michigan State ⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Braden Smith Over 7.5 assists (+105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Purdue vs. Michigan State ATS prediction
Purdue to cover the spread: +3.5 ⭐⭐⭐
While Tom Izzo defeated Illinois this past weekend to break Bob Knight's Big Ten wins record, the Spartans have been playing inconsistent basketball lately. They've lost to three teams ranked outside of KenPom's top 25 over their last five games (USC, UCLA, Indiana) while failing to cover in each of those outings.
Purdue has clearly been struggling after two straight losses. However, those defeats came at the hands of Michigan and Wisconsin, two teams ranked in the top 12 in the latest AP Top 25 Poll. The Boilermakers are 11-4 against the spread in Big Ten games, and Matt Painter has established a history of beating Izzo.
Purdue has won five straight against Michigan State. Even with Zach Edey gone, the Boilermakers boast the most talented player taking the court during the matchup in Wooden Award odds contender Braden Smith. With Smith as Painter's lead guard, Purdue is eighth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and the Spartans rank just 27th.
Given Purdue's offensive prowess - first in Big Ten play in field-goal percentage (50.1%) and third in points per game (79.9) - I have a hard time envisioning Michigan State slowing Painter's offense enough to cover.
If the Boilermakers cover, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Best Purdue vs. Michigan State pick
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Braden Smith Over 7.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Smith has been taking a massive leap during his junior season while helping to fill the gargantuan shoes of Edey, an NBA Rookie of the Year odds contender. The All-Big Ten guard is second in the nation in assists per game (8.8), and he's coming off a 12-dime outing against the Wisconsin Badgers.
He's already put up Over 7.5 assists in 14 of 26 games this season, including during eight of 15 Big Ten contests. And no team in the conference struggles more at stopping assists than Michigan State. For as good as the Spartans' defense has been this year, it's allowing the most assists per game in Big Ten play (11.9).
That makes Michigan State the perfect team for Smith to dole out apples against and turn a $10 bet into a $10.50 profit. This same prop is as short as -118 at our other best sports betting sites, implying a 54.13% probability it hits.
Best odds: +105 via bet365 | Implied probability: 48.78%
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Purdue vs. Michigan State AI prediction
AI score prediction: Purdue 74 Michigan State 72
(Score prediction and analysis via ChatGPT)
Considering both teams' strengths and recent performances, the projected final score is Purdue 74, Michigan State 72.
- Oddsmakers are likely factoring in home-court advantage, defensive intensity, and a potential letdown spot for Purdue, making this a tricky line, and the Spartans need a near-perfect game to cover
- Painter has been enjoying success against Izzo in recent matchups, winning five straight and nine of the last 10 tilts against the Spartans
- Michigan State's strong home record and defensive capabilities may counterbalance Purdue's offensive strengths, contributing to a tightly contested game
This game promises to be a competitive matchup, with both teams eager to solidify a position in the Big Ten.
Live Purdue vs. Michigan State odds
See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.
Purdue vs. Michigan State opening odds
- Spread: Purdue +3.5 (-115) | Michigan State -3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 (-110) | Under 148.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Purdue +130 | Michigan State -155
Purdue vs. Michigan State game info
- When: Tuesday, Feb. 18
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Breslin Center (East Lansing, Mich.)
- How to watch: Peacock
- Favorite: Michigan State -3.5 (-105 via bet365)
College basketball betting odds pages
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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