NC State vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Preview Today: Best Picks for Feb. 19
A couple of disappointing teams this season are set to clash when North Carolina (15-11) hosts NC State (10-15) at the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, N.C., at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).
The Tar Heels have been struggling and aren't the March Madness odds contender most expected, but our NC State vs. North Carolina prediction and odds envision Hubert Davis' squad rising up as a 9.5-point favorite tonight.
NC State vs. North Carolina predictions today
College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites.
- Against the spread pick: North Carolina -9.5 (-110 via Caesars) vs. NC State ⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: RJ Davis Over 16.5 points (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NC State vs. North Carolina ATS prediction
North Carolina to cover the spread: -9.5 ⭐⭐⭐
This isn't the NC State team you remember from last year's magical ACC Tournament and Final Four run. The vast majority of that group graduated, including March Madness heroes D.J. Burns and DJ Horne. The team has since been falling off completely during Kevin Keatts' eighth season at the helm.
The Wolfpack have been horrendous while sitting second-last in ACC play in points per game (66.1) and 152nd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. And while the Tar Heels' defense hasn't been great, it's holding ACC opponents to the fourth-lowest 2-point percentage (47.7%) and the fifth-lowest 3-point percentage (32.3%), which should be enough against NC State.
Davis' offense can do the rest. Despite the team's struggles this season, it's still among the top 50 in the country in points (80.3) and 40th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The guard play should be the difference, with All-American RJ Davis, rising freshman Ian Jackson, and junior Elliot Cadeau facilitating.
With an 8-17 record against the spread this season, NC State has produced the ninth-worst cover rate in the country (32%) and is just 3-10 ATS since Dec. 31. If the Wolfpack fail to cover again, a $10 bet on UNC pays a $9.09 profit.
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Best NC State vs. North Carolina pick
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RJ Davis Over 16.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
After taking home ACC Player of the Year last season, Davis' fifth year in Chapel Hill hasn't gone as planned. However, he's still among the best scorers in the conference and sits seventh in the ACC in points per game this season (17.3).
Davis should be able to pop off for 17-plus points for the third time in four games against this wounded Wolfpack defense. NC State ranks 12th or worst during ACC play in field-goal percentage allowed (46.6%), 2-pointers allowed (18.6), and 3-point percentage allowed (37.8%).
The guard should hit the Over against NC State based on volume alone, as he's logging the fourth-most field-goal attempts per game in the ACC (14.0). He's tallied 17-plus points in 13 games this season. If he does that again, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit.
Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%
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NC State vs. North Carolina AI prediction
ChatGPT has generated the following score prediction and analysis, and it is in no way indicative of how the game will actually play out. This is an exercise to look at how certain statistics and recent play could impact the game, but it should not be the only resource used when putting together responsible bets.
AI score prediction: North Carolina 75, NC State 65
With the Tar Heels' balanced scoring and strong interior defense, and the Wolfpacks' struggles with offensive efficiency, the projected final score is North Carolina 75, NC State 65.
- The Tar Heels have been showing defensive strength, ranking fourth in the conference in opponent's field-goal percentage (42.3%), and they boast talented players, including Cadeau and junior forward Jalen Washington
- The Wolfpack recently snapped a nine-game losing streak and are trying to avoid finishing in the bottom three of the ACC, which would exclude them from the conference tournament
- NC State's offense has been struggling while ranking fourth-worst in the ACC for efficiency, and injuries are hampering the team, with key transfer Mike James unlikely to play this season
The Tar Heels boast a strong record at the Dean E. Smith Center, which could play a significant role in their performance too.
Live NC State vs. North Carolina odds
See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.
NC State vs. North Carolina opening odds
- Spread: NC State +11.5 (-110) | North Carolina -11.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 147 (-105) | Under 147 (-115)
- Moneyline: NC State +475 | North Carolina -650
NC State vs. North Carolina game info
- When: Wednesday, Feb. 19
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Dean E. Smith Center (Chapel Hill, N.C.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: North Carolina -9.5 (-110 via Caesars)
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