Best March Madness Upset Predictions Today: Which Underdogs Should You Bet Saturday?
Despite every favorite in the Sweet 16 winning over the last two days, there were plenty of upset opportunities leading to heartbreak for teams like Purdue and Arkansas.
Given how chalky the NCAA Tournament has been, my best March Madness upset picks today look at both Elite Eight underdogs taking the court and focus on how they could come out on top, even if I ultimately don't think either team will.
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💰 Ranking today's March Madness underdogs by best moneyline odds
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| Team (seed) | Opponent (seed) | Best ML odds |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech (3) | vs. Florida (1) | +270 via bet365 |
| Alabama (2) | vs. Duke (1) | +270 via bet365 |
👉 Want to cash your upset picks? Check out the most common March Madness upsets by seed and our guide on how to predict March Madness upsets.
🎯 Our best March Madness upset picks & predictions today
The Sweet 16 didn't disappoint in terms of the quality of games, but it did disappoint if you were betting on underdogs to win outright. At various points in the second half of their games, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Purdue, and Michigan looked like they could pull off upsets. Instead, all ended up losing and set us up with an Elite Eight that features only programs in KenPom's top nine.
The top two in that top nine - Duke and Florida - take the court tonight, and both look to be set up to live up to their billing as the March Madness odds favorites. While I don't see either losing, there is a path to both Texas Tech and Alabama pulling off upsets as underdogs.
🚨 No. 3 Texas Tech over No. 1 Florida
📅 Tipoff: 6:09 p.m. ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +270 via bet365
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It's hard to gauge Texas Tech because it's the only team in the Elite Eight that hasn't played a single-digit seed. The Red Raiders' three wins have come against No. 14 seed UNC Wilmington, No. 11 seed Drake, and No. 10 seed Arkansas, the latter of which they needed the second-biggest comeback in March Madness history to beat.
But that comeback could give them the momentum to go toe to toe with Florida. The key will be the health of Gators' big man Alex Condon, who got banged-up in the Sweet 16. If he's not healthy enough to play his usual 25-plus minutes, All-American JT Toppin could absolutely own the paint for a Tech team that's No. 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
The other key for the Red Raiders will be consistency from behind the arc, something they struggled with mightily early on against the Razorbacks. Their best shooter, Chance McMillian, hasn't played in two weeks, and if he's out again, then Darrion Williams, Christian Anderson, and Elijah Hawkins need to hit their threes.
The Red Raiders have the worst defense of any team in the Elite Eight, so they'll likely need to win a shootout to pull off this upset. Perhaps Toppin can do his best Michael Crabtree impression and do the impossible by slaying a championship contender.
🚨 No. 2 Alabama over No. 1 Duke
📅 Tipoff: 8:49 p.m. ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +270 via bet365
I have much less confidence in Duke being upset than Florida, even though Alabama is better than Texas Tech on paper. The Blue Devils have one of the most talented rosters in recent college basketball history and the Wooden Award odds favorite in Cooper Flagg.
That said, the Crimson Tide do have an offense that's capable of taking down any team in the country when it's on, just ask Auburn. We saw it at its peak against BYU in the Sweet 16 when Nate Oats' squad set an NCAA Tournament record by hitting 25 threes, 10 of which came from All-American Mark Sears.
Alabama will try to turn this into a track meet - it's No. 1 in adjusted tempo and No. 4 in adjusted offensive efficiency - and if it's hitting from deep, then Duke could get into a hole. There's no questioning the Crimson Tide's offensive ability with Oats' 3-point heavy system having the talent to score on anyone - Sears and Aden Holloway are top 10 in the country in OBPR, per EvanMiya.
If those two get hot and Grant Nelson and Labaron Philon can slow Flagg, Kon Knueppel, and Tyrese Proctor to some extent, there's a path to victory for the Tide. Don't forget that Alabama beat No. 1 seeds Houston and Auburn this season.
👉 Can't get enough upsets? Check out our detailed history of the biggest March Madness upsets of all time.
🚀 Best March Madness upset moneyline parlay today
If you combine my favorite upset picks today into a moneyline parlay, you can turn a winning $10 bet into a $126.90 profit at bet365. Be sure to use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay during the NCAA Tournament:
🚨 No. 3 Texas Tech (+270) over No. 1 Florida
🚨 No. 2 Alabama (+270) over No. 1 Duke
📊 Best SGP odds: +1269 via bet365 ($10 to win $126.90)
👉 Looking for more March Madness action? Check out the rest of our March Madness Elite Eight predictions as part of our March Madness predictions.
🆚 Elite Eight game predictions
- Florida vs. Texas Tech prediction
- Duke vs. Alabama prediction
- Houston vs. Tennessee prediction
- Auburn vs. Michigan State prediction
- Auburn vs. Michigan State player props
- Auburn vs. Michigan State parlay
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