Best March Madness Upset Predictions Today: Which Underdogs Should You Bet Thursday?
In an event best known for upsets, this year's NCAA Tournament has been severely lacking, with the Sweet 16 field being about as chalky as anyone can remember.
But there are only teams from power conferences left in the Sweet 16, which makes finding the best March Madness upset picks today slightly easier than normal in what should be a competitive batch of games involving March Madness odds contenders.
👉 Want more March Madness action? Check out the rest of our March Madness Sweet 16 predictions and stay up to date with the March Madness Sweet 16 odds and schedule.
💰 Ranking today's March Madness underdogs by best moneyline odds
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| Team (seed) | Opponent (seed) | Best ML odds |
|---|---|---|
| BYU (6) | vs. Alabama (2) | +185 via bet365 |
| Maryland (4) | vs. Florida (1) | +240 via Caesars |
| Arkansas (10) | vs. Texas Tech (3) | +200 via bet365 |
| Arizona (4) | vs. Duke (1) | +410 via DraftKings |
👉 Want to cash your upset picks? Check out the most common March Madness upsets by seed and our guide on how to predict March Madness upsets.
🎯 Our best March Madness upset picks & predictions today
With just four games today, and two involving the biggest Final Four odds favorites, there's potential for some major upsets. However, picking against Duke seems like bad business, and I think the "Cinderella" run of Arkansas comes to an end against Texas Tech and All-American JT Toppin.
That leaves two potential upsets, with one seeming much more likely than the other.
🚨 No. 6 BYU over No. 2 Alabama
📅 Tipoff: 7:09 PM ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +185 via bet365
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The best upset picks in the Sweet 16 are the pair involving No. 6 seeds taking on No. 2 seeds because of the way the programs have been looking throughout the NCAA Tournament. Tomorrow that's Ole Miss upsetting Michigan State, and today it's BYU stumping Alabama in what's expected to be a high-scoring affair.
The Crimson Tide feature an explosive offense that All-American Mark Sears leads. But they also tend to ignore the other part of basketball: defense. That could be dangerous against a BYU team that's 22nd in the country in field-goal percentage (48.3%), 11th in made 3-pointers per game (10.6), and ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency, all per KenPom.
With Richie Saunders playing like one of the best offensive threats in the NCAA Tournament and Egor Demin upping his 3-point shooting to be among the March Madness stars to help their NBA draft stock, Alabama could find itself on the losing end of a shootout. The Crimson Tide didn't look particularly inspiring during a close call against Robert Morris, or in the second half against Saint Mary's.
🚨 No. 4 Maryland over No. 1 Florida
📅 Tipoff: 7:39 PM ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +240 via Caesars
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If not for all the controversy involving now former Maryland athletic director Damon Evans taking the SMU job, and sitting Terrapins head coach Kevin Willard deflecting questions about NIL and the Villanova opening, I'd feel more confident in the Terps. Still, we saw the magic of freshman Derik Queen last weekend with his buzzer-beater against Colorado State.
Queen is the key to a Terrapins upset, with the big man set to present a challenging matchup for the Gators. He's built like a defensive tackle, but Queen possesses the skill of a wing. There's a double-double machine beside the Baltimore native in Julian Reese, and two big-time shooters in Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Rodney Rice.
If Gillespie and Rice cook from behind the arc and Queen owns the paint, Florida's defense could encounter some trouble. Obviously, the Gators' offense is terrifying, but the Terps are sixth in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and should be able to give Walter Clayton Jr. a difficult time.
👉 Can't get enough upsets? Check out our detailed history of the biggest March Madness upsets of all time.
🚀 Best March Madness upset moneyline parlay today
If you combine my two favorite upset picks today into a moneyline parlay, you can turn a winning $10 bet into an $85.40 profit at bet365. Be sure to use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay during the NCAA Tournament:
🚨 No. 6 BYU (+185) over No. 2 Alabama
🚨 No. 4 Maryland (+235) over No. 1 Florida
📊 Best SGP odds: +854 via bet365 ($10 to win $85.40)
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🆚 Sweet 16 game predictions
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- Duke vs. Arizona prediction
- Texas Tech vs. Arkansas prediction
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