Best March Madness Survivor Pool Picks Today: Ranking Every NCAA Tournament Team on Day 8
The chalkiest first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament that anybody can remember have been followed up by only the favorites winning in the Sweet 16 and on the first night of the Elite Eight, despite Texas Tech's best efforts.
Our best March Madness survivor pool picks today are trusting that this trend will continue while eyeing the two No. 1 seeds taking the hardwood this afternoon.
👉 Want to win your March Madness survivor pool? We broke down the survivor pool basics and offered our best survivor pool tips & strategy.
🎯 Best March Madness survivor pool picks today: NCAA Tournament Day 8
| Ranking | Team (seed) | Matchup (seed) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auburn (1) | vs. Michigan State (2) |
| 2 | Houston (1) | vs. Tennessee (2) |
| 3 | Tennessee (2) | vs. Houston (1) |
| 4 | Michigan State (2) | vs. Auburn (1) |
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✅ Best survivor pool pick today: Auburn
Although Michigan State has somehow made it to the Elite Eight, it hasn't been an easy road for a Spartans team that looked like New Mexico would upset it in the second round and then Ole Miss almost did the same in the Sweet 16. Tom Izzo's squad can't play as sporadically as it has against a March Madness odds contender like Auburn.
While the Tigers haven't quite been living up to their title as the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament lately, they keep winning because their roster is so loaded. Bruce Pearl's team is No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and it boasts four different players around Wooden Award odds contender Johni Broome who are capable of going off.
For as good as the Spartans' defense has been, it doesn't boast enough firepower alongside Jase Richardson to outlast Auburn. The only downside to taking Auburn is that it could put you in a tricky situation in the Final Four if you're trying to save Duke for the championship game and think the Tigers will beat Florida.
📊 Auburn's odds to beat Michigan State: -220 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 68.75%
🛡️ Safest survivor pool pick today: Auburn
In an ideal situation, you're taking either Houston or Tennessee with your survivor pool picks today, whichever defensive juggernaut you think will win. That would set you up to then take Auburn over Florida in the Final Four, or vice versa, and still hold the Blue Devils to use in the national championship game (if your bracket is like mine and has Duke over Auburn for the title).
However, for as good as Houston has been looking, it did need a bucket with 0.8 seconds left to take down Purdue. Meanwhile, Tennessee has clearly been the best No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and it finally beat Kentucky in the Sweet 16. That matchup is far more of a tossup to me than Auburn vs. Michigan State, a game in which the Tigers hold a clear talent advantage.
While Richardson was among the March Madness NBA draft prospects we highlighted pre-tournament, the Spartans just don't possess the same offensive depth as Auburn. Sparty's 3-point shooting issues could haunt the team too much against an Auburn team that boasts four reliable shooters in Miles Kelly, Denver Jones, Tahaad Pettiford, and Chad Baker Mazara surrounding Broome.
I wish I could take Houston today, as it would set me up so much better heading into the Final Four. But Auburn is clearly the safer pick.
📊 Houston's odds to beat Tennessee: -152 via BetRivers | Implied probability: 60.32%
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⚠️ Riskiest survivor pool pick today: Tennessee
I thought Houston was clearly the second-best team in the country after Duke a few days ago, and that hasn't changed despite the team's sketchy Sweet 16 victory. Pulling wins out of you-know-where is just part of the chaos during March Madness, and the Cougars survived the Boilermakers thanks to an ingenious play from Kelvin Sampson.
However, Tennessee has been quietly steady throughout the NCAA Tournament and is the highest-ranked non-No. 1 seed from KenPom. That's why the Final Four odds gave the Cougars a plus-money price to win the Midwest region, while every other No. 1 seed was minus-money.
Tennessee and Houston boast arguably the two best defenses in the country, and the Vols trot out an elite point guard in Zakai Zeigler and one of the most talented scorers in the country in Chaz Lanier. While I don't think they ultimately will beat Houston, Tennessee has all the pieces to do it.
Being able to take either Tennessee or Michigan State today and surviving would put you in the best position for the Final Four. But is it worth the risk?
📊 Tennessee's odds to beat Houston: +136 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 42.37%
🚫 Popular March Madness survivor pool picks to avoid today
| Ranking | Team (seed) | Matchup (seed) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan State (2) | vs. Auburn (1) |
| 2 | Tennessee (2) | vs. Houston (1) |
| 3 | Houston (1) | vs. Tennessee (2) |
| 4 | Auburn (1) | vs. Michigan State (2) |
❌ Worst survivor pool pick today: Michigan State
Michigan State wasn't even ranked in the preseason Top 25 of the AP Poll prior to the season. Expectations were low for Mr. March's team, and the squad soared above behind hard-nosed defense and the emergence of Richardson as a star player.
However, March Madness hasn't been kind to No. 1/No. 2 seeds that weren't ranked in the preseason top 25. Since 1990 (when the poll expanded to 25), not a single No. 1 seed or No. 2 seed that wasn't ranked in the AP preseason poll has advanced to the Final Four.
Can Michigan State break that trend and defeat Auburn? I don't see it happening. The Spartans don't boast the size to stop Broome with their guard-heavy lineup (sorry, I don't believe in Jaxon Kohler), and their 3-point shooting has been abysmal. The only way they win would be if Richardson produced a performance that the folks of East Lansing would remember for the rest of their lives.
📊 Michigan State's odds to beat Auburn: +190 via bet365 | Implied probability: 000%
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⛔ Other survivor pool picks to avoid today
- While Tennessee has everything a team needs to take down Houston - elite defense and a dynamic scorer - the Cougars' depth and Rick Barnes' history of falling short in the tournament scare me off a Vols upset
- This Houston team is the only program in the country I think can slay Duke, but Tennessee matches up too well with the Cougars for me to have the confidence to take them in a survivor pool today after they nearly blew it against Purdue
- The argument against Auburn is that the Tigers haven't played their best basketball in weeks and now run into one of the best defenses in the nation
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