March Madness Final Four Survivor Pool Picks for NCAA Tournament
For just the second time in NCAA Tournament history, the Final Four is made up of only No. 1 seeds in what's expected to be one of the most competitive penultimate rounds ever during March Madness.
Given the parity between these programs, making your March Madness Final Four survivor pool picks can feel impossible, especially with Johni Broome's injury throwing a 6-foot-10 wrench into many survivor pool plans. That's why the safest play might be taking the March Madness odds favorite.
👉 Want to win your March Madness survivor pool? We broke down the survivor pool basics and offered our best survivor pool tips & strategy.
🎯 Best March Madness survivor pool picks for Final Four
| Ranking | Team (seed) | Opponent (seed) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke (1) | vs. Houston (1) |
| 2 | Auburn (1) | vs. Florida (1) |
| 3 | Florida (1) | vs. Auburn (1) |
| 4 | Houston (1) | vs. Duke (1) |
🐯 Best pick: Auburn
Entering the NCAA Tournament, my survivor pool plan for the Final Four was always to take the team I trusted most on the opposite side of the bracket from Duke. My bracket featured Auburn, with the hope being to take the Tigers here while saving the Blue Devils for the championship game.
While I still think taking Auburn is the best pick in terms of setting you up for the final round, Broome hyperextending his elbow against Michigan State in the Elite Eight makes this pick a lot riskier. However, Broome is back at practice, and we saw him return against Michigan State and immediately hit a 3-pointer.
The Tigers are the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament for a reason, and explosive scorers surround Broome to pick up the slack if he's not 100%. Auburn is one of only two teams in the country to be top eight in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Though Florida came into the tournament as one of the nation's hottest teams, it struggled mightily with both UConn and Texas Tech, two squads that lean on an offense-first approach like Auburn. Broome isn't the only banged-up big man either, with Gators' center Alex Condon dealing with a tweaked ankle.
The other benefit of taking Auburn is that most participants still alive in a survivor pool will be siding with Florida given the buzz the team has been receiving lately. Obviously, the Tigers need to win for that to matter. But if they do, you'll be in the best shape possible for the title game.
📊 Auburn's odds to beat Florida in the Final Four: +135 via Caesars | Implied probability: 42.55%
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😈 Safest pick: Duke
If all you're worried about is surviving the Final Four and advancing to the championship, then take Duke and you won't need to sweat it out as much. But recognize that it could set you up to lose in the championship regardless because the Blue Devils are a notch above everyone else.
The best two teams in the country for the last two months have been Duke and Houston, and I think regardless of which team wins the Final Four matchup, Auburn/Florida will lose the championship. The Blue Devils have barely been challenged in the NCAA Tournament.
Duke is one of the most talented teams in college basketball history, and it boasts the best offense in the country, a top-three defense, the Wooden Award odds favorite in Cooper Flagg, and so much more length than Houston. The Cougars' ridiculous rotation can't even help them here because Duke might be the only team with even more depth than Kelvin Sampson's squad.
The downside to picking Duke in a survivor pool is that you won't get the Blue Devils for the championship, and a lot of participants who remain alive will likely be backing Jon Scheyer's team. Getting Flagg, the most highly regarded talent in the country and the player the NBA draft odds revolve around, will definitely make Duke the most-picked survivor pool team for the Final Four.
📊 Duke's odds to beat Houston in the Final Four: -240 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 70.59%
🐊 Riskiest pick: Florida
If not for Broome's injury, I'd be all over backing Auburn no matter what. Florida has proven twice in the tournament that when it's not shooting as efficiently and playing a higher-end offense, it can get exposed due to the school's inconsistent defensive play. Walter Clayton Jr. needed to hit some of the most jaw-dropping shots we've ever seen for the Gators to even reach the Final Four.
Between the unpredictability of how Broome will look and the likelihood that Florida will be a massively popular survivor pool pick, the Gators are a dangerous team to tie yourself to for the Final Four. The public absolutely loves this squad, and Florida getting the second-shortest March Madness odds since the start of the tournament is proof. I'd bet the vast majority of survivor pool participants not taking Duke plan on rolling with the Gators.
However, even though I'm not in on Florida, taking the winner of Auburn vs. Florida in a survivor pool is how you'll end up in the best position come Monday. This matchup is a true tossup, and it's worth just backing whichever of these two you expect to win.
That way, if you're right, you can take Duke in the championship. And if you're wrong, you'll go down knowing you likely wouldn't have won your survivor pool anyway if you reached the final by taking Duke. I just don't think any program is stopping the runaway freight train that is the Flagg-led Blue Devils. (Depending on your pool's payout format, though, it might be best to just take Duke if reaching the final rewards you with a larger chunk of the pot.)
📊 Florida's odds to beat Auburn in the Final Four: -148 via BetRivers | Implied probability: 59.68%
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🚫 March Madness survivor pool pick to avoid
⛔ Worst survivor pool pick for the Final Four: Houston
Houston being a bad pick here really speaks to this year featuring the best Final Four of all time. This Cougars team would likely win the whole damn NCAA Tournament most years with a historically dominant defense, a deep rotation led that J'Wan Roberts and LJ Cryer lead, and a future hall of fame head coach in Sampson.
Heck, the Cougars would probably reach the championship if they didn't draw the Midwest region and need to clash with Duke on Saturday. I'd take Houston over both Auburn and Florida in a heartbeat, but the Cougars need to play a Blue Devils team that looks unstoppable. And we've already seen Houston struggle somewhat against an offense with an All-American running the show when Braden Smith and Purdue came within 0.8 seconds of upsetting the Cougs.
The most significant reason I'm staying away from Houston is that it doesn't boast the length to compete with the Blue Devils. Roberts and Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year JoJo Tugler are the team's "bigs," and both are under 6-foot-8. Meanwhile, Duke runs nine deep and doesn't trot out a player under 6-foot-5. The size difference is going to kill Houston in the end, so if you want to survive, steer clear of the Cougars.
📊 Houston's odds to beat Duke in the Final Four: +235 via Caesars | Implied probability: 29.85%
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💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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