Florida vs. Houston Early Picks, Predictions & Odds: March Madness National Championship Game
After a stunning comeback to eliminate pre-tournament March Madness odds favorite Duke, Houston faces Florida in Monday’s national championship game at the Alamodome in San Antonio at 8:50 p.m. ET (CBS).
Both teams aim to cap off remarkable seasons - one fueled by elite defense, the other by high-powered offense - as we break down the early Florida vs. Houston early picks, predictions, and odds for the March Madness finale.
🏀 Florida vs. Houston opening odds: NCAA Championship betting lines
Here are the opening Florida vs. Houston odds via bet365.
| Market | Florida | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1 (-105) | +1 (-115) |
| Moneyline | -115 | -105 |
| Total (O/U) | Over 141.5 (-110) | Under 141.5 (-110) |
With these two programs having such contrasting styles and both being among the most impressive teams in recent memory, our March Madness betting sites only give Florida a slight edge, despite the Gators having far shorter championship odds than Houston coming into the NCAA Tournament. Clearly, the Cougars' comeback over Duke has oddsmakers starting to believe in Houston's defense-first mentality.
While I believe this should be a pick 'em with how equally impressive these teams have been this season - Houston is No. 2 and Florida is No. 3 by KenPom - I wouldn't be shocked to see this line move another point in the Gators' direction. The public has loved Florida throughout the NCAA Tournament. Coinciding with the public's love of Florida and its high-powered offense, this game total could jump up another point or two.
🔮 My early Florida vs. Houston prediction: March Madness national championship game pick & preview
Here is my best Florida vs. Houston prediction for the national championship game of the NCAA Tournament. You can also check out the rest of our college basketball picks.
🎯 Prediction: Houston ML
📊 Best odds: -102 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50.50%
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For more than two months, Houston had looked like the second-best team in the country. Then on Saturday night, the Cougars managed one of the most memorable comebacks in March Madness history to knock off the team we had all presumed to be the best team in college basketball - a Duke squad that was two wins away from being talked about as one of the greatest teams of all time.
Despite the mismatch against a Blue Devils team with the Wooden Award odds winner in Cooper Flagg and multiple other future NBA first-round picks, Houston's suffocating defense and 3-point shooting efficiency were the difference in the end. On Monday night, Kelvin Sampson's team is poised to do even more damage against a Florida team with defensive holes and far less length than Duke.
The Gators' fast-paced offense relies so heavily on 3-pointers, and Houston allows opponents to shoot just 30.1% from behind the arc - the Cougars allow the lowest field goal percentage in the country (38.2%). This is the No. 1 defense in adjusted efficiency, and it just held the No. 1 offense to 39.6% shooting and 67 points. Florida won't be able to lean on Walter Clayton Jr. to carry its offense all night against this group.
Sampson's methodical approach should also stop the Gators from turning this into a track meet, with the Cougs ranking 360th in the country in adjusted tempo. The key to a Houston championship will be L.J. Cryer rising to the occasion once again after he shot 6-for-9 from three against Duke. Luckily, Florida's defense has been far more penetrable than the Blue Devils' in the tournament.
🔮 Score prediction: Houston 72, Florida 69
💸 Florida vs. Houston moneyline
- Florida best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%
- Houston best odds: -102 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50.50%
With these both being among the best No. 1 seeds in recent memory, we're not getting plus-money moneyline odds for either at our best sports betting sites. But that could change if the public continues to bet on Florida and shortens its odds further.
That's why I think Florida backers should jump on these -112 odds - paying an $8.93 profit on a $10 bet - while Houston bettors might want to hold out and see if oddsmakers lengthen the Cougars' moneyline odds.
📈 Florida vs. Houston spread
- Florida best odds: -1 (-105 via Caesars) | Implied probability: 51.22%
- Houston best odds: +1.5 (-115 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 53.49%
All of our best sports betting apps have Florida as a slight favorite with the line sitting between -1 and -1.5, but that could see some movement over the next 24 hours.
Florida had the second-highest percentage of the handle last week to win it all behind Duke, according to BetMGM. If the public continues to heavily bet the Gators, then they could be favored by as many as 2.5 by tipoff on Monday. So bet Florida now or Houston later, depending on which program you plan on backing.
⚖️ Florida vs. Houston Over/Under
- Over best odds: 141.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 52.38%
- Under best odds: 141.5 (-105 via BetMGM) | Implied probability: 51.22%
Houston is No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and plays a slow offensive brand of basketball, while Florida is No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency and wants to turn every game into a track meet. I do not envy the oddsmakers having to set a game total for this one, but I do think if Florida is the popular team to bet, the public will also bet this Over up a point or two at our best sportsbooks.
🖥️ AI score prediction: Houston 75, Florida 72
- Houston’s defense is elite and consistently disruptive, giving them the edge in slowing Florida’s high-octane attack
- Florida’s scoring punch, led by Walter Clayton Jr., makes them dangerous, but their defensive lapses could prove costly
- If Houston controls the tempo and keeps the game in the half-court, their toughness and execution give them the edge
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Houston covering the spread (+1) and a total of Over 142 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
📺 How to watch Florida vs. Houston: NCAA Championship 2025
📅 Date: Monday, April 7
🕗 Time: 8:50 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Alamodome (San Antonio)
📺 TV: CBS
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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