Early March Madness Predictions & Odds 2025: Favorites, Long Shots to Win NCAA Tournament
Now that the Super Bowl has ended, the countdown to Selection Sunday is on. Just over a month until Sunday, March 16, when the NCAA Tournament field will be set, and two days later, the First Four will take place. Now is the time for our early March Madness predictions and odds.
The college basketball season has been a wild ride thus far with so much parity, but regular contenders Duke and Auburn are clear March Madness odds favorites. Will one run the board to cut down the nets, or will a preseason long-shot emerge to shatter brackets?
March Madness predictions
- March Madness favorite pick: Auburn (+400 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- March Madness contender pick: St. John's (+4500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
- March Madness long-shot pick: Maryland (+8000 via BetMGM) ⭐
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March Madness odds
March Madness odds analysis
- After rumors he would take the Los Angeles Lakers job, Dan Hurley came back to UConn in an attempt to three-peat, but the Huskies' odds have slipped to +4000 after opening at +1200 due to a sporadic start to the year
- Despite a lackluster season last year, Duke opened as the March Madness odds favorite (+1200) and has lived up to it thanks to freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, the leader to go No. 1 by the NBA draft odds
- No team has risen like Auburn this season; after opening at +3000, the Tigers are co-favorites with Duke due to the play of Wooden Award odds contender Johni Broome
- It's been an iffy season for Kansas, which opened as co-favorites with Duke, as the Jayhawks have slipped to +3500 due to poor play in Big 12 games
- Houston and Alabama look like the only teams capable of going toe-to-toe with Duke and Auburn; the Cougars have a dominant defense, and the Crimson Tide have an explosive offense
Early picks to win March Madness
March Madness favorite pick: Auburn
Best odds: +400 via Caesars | Implied probability: 20%
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Even with all the parity in college basketball this season, Duke and Auburn appear to be a step above every other team. They rank as the top two programs by KenPom, and they have the two best players in the country, Flagg and Broome. That's why I think they're the obvious two options to back, even with the odds this short already and bound to get shorter.
So the question becomes: why Auburn over Duke? The Blue Devils are relying on such a young roster with three true freshmen in their starting five - Flagg, Kon Knueppel, and Khaman Maluach. They also rely so heavily on Flagg (19.5 PPG) and Knueppel (13.5 PPG) to carry the offensive load, and Tyrese Proctor (11 PPG) is the only other player scoring over eight per game.
Meanwhile, the Tigers are a veteran team with arguably the best two-way player in the country, Broome, a fifth-year senior. Six of Auburn's seven players who average more than 19 MPG are seniors. They also have more scoring versatility on offense, with six players putting up at least 9.6 PPG.
Truly, it's a toss-up between the two programs for who is the best team in the country, but I'm going to trust Bruce Pearl's experienced roster at this point. If the Tigers live up to the hype, a $10 winning bet on them pays a $40 profit.
March Madness contender pick: St. John's
Best odds: +4500 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 2.17%
It just feels right to see Rick Pitino back in the Big East and leaning on his ferocious defense to kick some butt. Say what you will about the ex-Kentucky and Louisville head coach, but he's as good as it gets when it comes to X's and O's, and he's now set to take his sixth different program to the NCAA Tournament.
It only took Pitino two seasons to turn St. John's around. The Red Storm are now leading the Big East and coming off an impressive road win over UConn. This program is built with a hard-nosed mentality, ranks No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and has a scorer in RJ Luis capable of taking over games.
Luis is surrounded by elite defenders in Kadary Richmond, Zuby Ejiofor, and Simeon Wilcher, who make up three of the top four in the Big East in DBPR, per EvanMiya. So even with concerns over the Red Storm's shooting from behind the arc, they have proven they're capable of winning ugly against the best Big East teams like UConn and Marquette.
With Pitino's experience leading teams on deep tournament runs and this defense capable of suffocating opponents, St. John's is the most interesting team with longer than +2000 odds. If they can continue the Big East's championship run, a $10 bet pays a $450 profit.
March Madness longshot pick: Maryland
Best odds: +8000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 1.23%
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It starts to get murky when looking for a team with odds longer than +6000 to win the NCAA Tournament this late in the season. However, one team that has the talent to make some noise in March and is flying somewhat under the radar is Maryland.
The Terrapins just beat two of the Big Ten's best teams in Illinois and Wisconsin and are one of just nine teams in the country to rank in the top 25 in offensive (19th) and defensive efficiency (24th). They also have a potential lottery pick in freshman Derik Queen (15 PPG, 8.3 RPG), and he's flanked by upperclassmen Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Julain Reese, who are top six in the Big Ten in BPR.
Having a pair of physically dominant forces inside, like Queen and Reese, and a sharp shooting guard in Gillespie (40.6% from three) is usually a recipe for winning some games in March. Kevin Willard also has two other talented shooters, Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel.
The makeup of this Maryland team is really interesting. If they can click down the stretch and into the Big Ten tournament, I think they could challenge Purdue and Michigan State to win the conference tournament. Maybe that momentum will carry over into the NCAA Tournament and help turn a $10 bet into an $800 profit.
March Madness FAQs
Who is the favorite for March Madness?
Duke and Auburn are the co-favorites to win March Madness. Their odds of +400 imply a 20% probability that one of them will win the NCAA Tournament.
When is March Madness?
Selection Sunday is set for Sunday, March 16 with the First Four being played on March 18 and 19. The first round of the NCAA Tournament will then be played March 20 and 21, followed by the second round on March 22 and 23.
The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight are the following week between March 27 and 30. The Final Four is on April 5 with the championship on April 7.
Where is March Madness?
The First Four will be played in Dayton, Ohio at UD Arena. The first and second rounds will be spread across Rupp Arena (Lexington, Ky.), Amica Mutual Pavilion (Providence, R.I.), Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle), Intrust Bank Arena (Wichita, Kans.), Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse (Cleveland), Ball Arena (Denver), Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee), and Lenovo Center (Raleigh, N.C.).
The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight will be played at four different locations with the East Regional at Prudential Center (Newark, N.J.), the West Regional at Chase Center (San Francisco), the South Regional at State Farm Arena (Atlanta), and the Midwest Regional at Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis).
The Final Four and national championship game will be played at the Alamodome in San Antonio.
Who won March Madness last year?
UConn defeated the Purdue 75-60 to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament. That made Dan Hurley and the Huskies the first back-to-back champions since Florida in 2006 and 2007.
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