Duke vs. Virginia Prediction, Odds & Preview: Best Picks for Tonight
Cooper Flagg has been terrific this season for the 22-3 Duke Blue Devils, and we expect his dominance to continue against a reeling 13-12 Virginia team in tonight's ACC matchup at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Va. (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).
The Blue Devils are the March Madness odds favorites entering the contest, and our Duke vs. Virginia prediction expects them to show precisely why.
After the game, you can look forward to another anticipated tilt we covered in our Arizona vs. Baylor prediction.
Duke vs. Virginia predictions today
College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites.
- Against the spread pick: Duke -14.5(-110 via DraftKings) vs. Virginia ⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Cooper Flagg Over 3.5 assists (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Duke vs. Virginia ATS prediction
Duke to cover the spread: -14.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Aside from a road loss to Clemson last week, Duke has been a well-oiled machine for the last three months. The Blue Devils are 17-1 since beating No. 1 Auburn 84-78 on Dec. 4, and they're 11-7 ATS over that stretch thanks to Flagg taking his play up a notch and becoming the Wooden Award odds favorite.
Flagg and fellow freshman Kon Knueppel have Duke ranked No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. They should take advantage of an uncharacteristically poor Virginia defense (115th in adjusted efficiency). In ACC play, the Cavaliers are 14th in 2-point percentage allowed (52.5%) and 10th in 3-point percentage allowed (35.9%).
Meanwhile, Duke leads the conference in field goal percentage (50.5%), 3-point percentage (39.3%), and PPG (82.4%). Its defense can also shut down a putrid Cavs offense, with Flagg helping the Blue Devils hold opponents to the sixth-fewest PPG in the country (60.8%) and the seventh-lowest field goal percentage (38.4%).
Virginia just doesn't have the offense to keep up in this matchup with the way Flagg has been playing - the Cavs are 353rd in the country in PPG (64.6). If the Blue Devils cover for the 16th time this season, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
Best Duke vs. Virginia pick
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Cooper Flagg Over 3.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Every single time Flagg hits the hardwood, he lives up to the hype of being the expected No. 1 pick by the NBA draft odds. He's the only player in the ACC putting up 17-plus PPG, seven-plus RPG, and four-plus APG, proving how well-rounded he is on offense.
Flagg's ability to facilitate will be useful against a Virginia squad that allows the second-most assists per game in ACC play (11.9). His top-scoring threat status should lead to defenders overcommitting to him and opening up his teammates, too.
With Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor scoring at a high level, Flagg should have plenty of opportunity to pick up Over 3.5 assists for the 13th time in 25 games. And a $10 bet pays an $8.93 profit if Flagg can put up four-plus assists.
Best odds: -112 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.83%
Duke vs. Virginia AI prediction
AI score prediction: Duke 75 Virginia 60
(Score prediction and analysis via ChatGPT)
Considering Duke's strong offensive performance and Virginia's struggles, the projected final score is Duke 75, Virginia 60.
- With a 14.5-point spread, Duke is expected to cover, given their recent high-scoring games and overall performance
- The total of 131.5 points suggests a moderately high-scoring game and given Duke's offensive capabilities and Virginia's defensive challenges, betting on the Over could be favorable
- While Virginia benefits from playing at home, their inconsistent performance this season may limit this advantage, and Tyrese Proctor's recent 23-point game indicates he's a crucial player for Duke's offense
This ACC matchup is significant for both teams, with Duke aiming to maintain their top conference position and Virginia seeking an upset to boost their season.
Live Duke vs. Virginia odds
See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.
Duke vs. Virginia opening odds
- Spread: Duke -14.5 (-110) | Virginia +14.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 129.5 (-115) | Under 129.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Duke -1100 | Virginia +700
Duke vs. Virginia game info
- When: Monday, Feb. 17
- Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: John Paul Jones Arena (Charlottesville, Va.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Duke -15 (-110 via bet365)
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