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Duke vs. Kentucky Prediction, Pick & Odds Tonight: Cooper Flagg Set to Shine Against Blue Blood

Rob Paul

Last Updated: November 12, 2024 12:35 PM EST • 2 min 59 sec read.

Duke guard Cooper Flagg dunks the ball. We're backing Flagg in our Duke vs. Kentucky prediction.
Duke guard Cooper Flagg dunks the ball. Photo by Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images.

When Duke and Kentucky play tonight at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) from State Farm Arena in Atlanta, the college basketball world will stop as everyone tunes in.

  • Our Duke vs. Kentucky prediction expects the Blue Devils to live up to their No. 6 ranking in the AP Top 25
  • Led by freshman star Cooper Flagg, Duke has the third-shortest March Madness odds
  • Flagg, the projected No. 1 pick in the NBA draft, is also the Wooden Award odds favorite

Can Flagg lead Duke past the high-scoring Wildcats in a showdown between Blue Bloods?

Tonight's best Duke vs. Kentucky picks

College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites. Odds subject to change.

Duke vs. Kentucky against the spread prediction

Duke to cover the spread: -5.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Duke vs. Kentucky opening odds:

  • Duke: -6 (-110)
  • Kentucky: +6 (-110)

New Kentucky coach Mark Pope has the Wildcats putting up major points through two games this season, but Duke has one of the best defenses they'll see all year.

The Blue Devils allow just 60 points per game and sit No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. While Kentucky has just a little more offensive talent than Maine and Army, it is a team of transfers.

The top nine players in minutes are all transfers that joined the team this year, and three of the other four players to even touch the court this season are freshman.

So while this roster toasted Wright State and Bucknell, chemistry could be an issue against this loaded Duke defense, which is only allowing opponents to shoot 34.7% from the floor.

Cooper plants the Blue Devils' Flagg

The biggest difference in this matchup, though, will be Duke's offense against Kentucky's defense. The Wildcats are just 56th in adjusted defensive efficiency while the Blue Devils are third in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Led by Flagg, Duke is top 50 in field goal percentage (52.2%), 3-point percentage (41.8%), and points per game (98.0). That's bad news for a Kentucky defense that's ranked 245th in threes allowed (8.5) and 212th in twos allowed (18.0).

Duke is 2-0 ATS this season, and if the Blue Devils cover again, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Duke vs. Kentucky best bet

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Cooper Flagg Over 7.5 rebounds (-122) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

What can't Flagg do? He's proven to be worthy of the hype just two games into his collegiate career and is coming off his first career double double against Army.

Flagg is averaging nine rebounds in 27 minutes per game, and it's fair to assume he'll see even more playing time in one of Duke's biggest non-conference games of the season. 

With Kentucky allowing 33.5 rebounds per game and ranked 225th in offensive rebounds allowed (11.5), Flagg should have plenty of opportunities to pull down boards. If he goes Over 7.5 rebounds for the second straight game, a $10 bet pays an $8.20 profit.

Best odds: -122 via Caesars | Implied probability: 54.95%

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Latest Duke vs. Kentucky odds

See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.

Duke vs. Kentucky game info

  • When: Tuesday, Nov. 12
  • Tip-off: 9 p.m. ET
  • Where: State Farm Arena (Atlanta)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Favorite: Duke -5.5 (-110 via bet365)

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Written By:
Rob Paul
Rob is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review. He’s been with the team since early 2024, with this being his first full-time role in the sports betting industry. Before joining SportsbookReview.com, he contributed to various sports outlets, including FanSided and Pro Football Network. During that period, he spent five years working full-time as a local community journalist, after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history. He previously hosted an NFL draft and college football-focused podcast where he had the opportunity to interact with future NFL players such as Maxx Crosby and Quinn Meinerz. Rob has spent multiple years working as a freelance podcast producer for numerous sports-related podcasts while making guest appearances on several college football shows. He’s also made guest appearances on SportsTalk Mississippi on several occasions to talk all things NFL draft. Rob values the way sports betting acts as a catalyst for telling stories and growing interest in certain sports, particularly FCS football, WNBA, and mid-major college basketball. He’s always been drawn to the more obscure teams and conferences in major college sports, but most of all, Rob loves using stats to find the best player props to back.