Duke vs. Houston Prediction Tonight: Final Four Odds, NCAA Tournament Picks & Preview
The second spot in the March Madness championship will be clinched tonight at 8:49 p.m. ET (CBS) when the Duke Blue Devils (35-3) face the Houston Cougars (34-4) at the Alamodome in San Antonio to conclude the NCAA Tournament Final Four.
Duke is favored by 4.5 points in the hours before tipoff tonight, but we're backing the underdogs in our Duke vs. Houston prediction, odds, and preview as part of our March Madness predictions.
📈 Latest Duke vs. Houston odds movement & betting splits
Duke opened as a 4.5-point favorite to beat Houston in the second Final Four game tonight by the Final Four odds and predictions, and that number climbed throughout the week before settling back at -4.5 in the hours before tipoff in San Antonio.
That comes even with 76% of spread bets and 81% of all moneyline bets on the Blue Devils ahead of tipoff. Bettors are also backing the Over on a low total of 136.5, which is where it opened across our best sports betting sites.
🏀 Duke vs. Houston prediction & picks tonight: Final Four
Here are my best Duke vs. Houston predictions for the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
✅ Against the spread pick: Houston +5.5 (-115 via BetMGM) vs. Duke ⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Cooper Flagg Under 19.5 points (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Duke 69, Houston 66 (+15000 via DraftKings)
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks.
🏆 Best Duke vs. Houston pick, player prop bet & score prediction
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✅ Houston to cover the spread: +5.5 ⭐⭐
Duke’s star players, including Cooper Flagg, Khaman Maluach, and Kon Knueppel, are 19 or younger (Flagg should have been a high school senior this year).
So, while Houston might not have as many future NBA lottery picks on its roster, I am siding with its age and experience with a roster full of 22 and 23-year-olds to exert physicality and overcome any talent gap.
The Cougars have the rare blend of being the top defensive (per KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency) and the best 3-point shooting team in the country. And with the Alamodome being just a three-hour drive to Houston’s campus, having the feel of a home game should spur the underdogs.
This is a two-star play, backed by the trend that seven of the previous eight teams to play a Final Four game in their home state won outright.
📊 Best odds: -115 via BetMGM ($10 to win $8.70)
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🔥 Cooper Flagg Under 19.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Flagg had the third-highest offensive rating of any player in the ACC and is the leading scorer on an offense that was the most efficient in the history of the KenPom database.
However, Flagg scored 18 or fewer points in three of the four NCAA Tournament games and 17 or fewer points in five of six games before hurting his ankle in the ACC tournament.
Now, Flagg figures to draw one of the most challenging defensive assignments in the country, Joseph Tugler, as the top-rated defender in Evan Miyakawa’s DBPR metric.
Add that this game is being played in a cavernous stadium with much poorer sightlines than these players are used to, and I am going Under on his projected points.
There is a significant discrepancy between the O/U of 19.5 points offered at BetMGM and the 17.5-point total at FanDuel, so Under backers are getting a great number at BetMGM despite the uptick in juice. It's the top play at our best sports betting sites.
📊 Best odds: -125 via BetMGM ($10 to win $8)
🎯 Score prediction: Duke 69, Houston 66
The Blue Devils have won 31 of their last 32 games, with three of their four NCAA Tournament wins coming by at least 20 points. However, players like J’Wan Roberts and LJ Cryer for Houston have Final Four experience, which will help lead them to cover a spread that has increased from an opening line of +4.5.
That’s why I’m predicting a final score of Duke 69, Houston 66.
📊 Best odds: +15000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1500)
🤖 Duke vs. Houston AI prediction
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Duke vs. Houston. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Houston 71, Duke 66.
🖥️ AI score prediction: Houston 71, Duke 66
- Houston’s elite defense: The Cougars are one of the best defensive teams in the nation, with the ability to lock down in both the half-court and full-court.
- Duke’s versatility and talent: Duke’s roster is stacked with talent, especially with big men like Flagg, who can dominate inside and stretch the floor.
- Houston’s toughness and experience: Houston is battle-tested and has been a consistent contender in March Madness. Its ability to close tight games gives it an edge in high-pressure tournament situations.
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Houston covering the spread (+5.5) and a total of Over 136.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
📊 Live Duke vs. Houston odds
Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the Final Four.
🔢 Duke vs. Houston opening odds
- Spread: Duke -4.5 (-110) | Houston +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Duke -210 | Houston +170
- Over/Under: Over 136.5 (-110) | Under 136.5 (-110)
📺 How to watch Duke vs. Houston: NCAA Tournament Final Four
📅 Date: Saturday, April 5
🕗 Time: 8:49 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Alamodome (San Antonio)
📺 TV: CBS
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live
🆚 Final Four game predictions
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