NBA Picks Today: Thursday’s Best Player Picks & Underdog Pick ‘Em Predictions for April 3

Following a pair of nationally televised blowout wins on Wednesday night, NBA fans will get treated to two much more competitive games, with the Memphis Grizzlies at the Miami Heat and the Golden State Warriors visiting the Los Angeles Lakers, both on TNT.

Let's dive into the best Underdog NBA picks today ahead of that enticing slate, including a projection for Ja Morant.

We've also broken down those matchups in our NBA player prop bets and Warriors vs. Lakers NBA player props.

💰 Best NBA picks & Underdog Pick ‘Em predictions

🎯 Ja Morant Lower than 24.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Stephen Curry Lower than 25.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Scottie Barnes Lower than 17.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Jordan Poole Lower than 17.5 points⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Rui Hachimura Higher than 11.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

🏆 Today’s best NBA player picks

🎯 Ja Morant ⬇️ 24.5 points

It’s a good idea to play the lower for Ja Morant tonight ahead of Memphis' matchup against Miami. The star point guard is averaging an impressive 27.3 points per game since the All-Star break. But when we filter out the home games, that average drops to 23.8. He’ll be on the road in Miami tonight.

The other key consideration here is Miami’s defense, which locks in on opposing top scorers, and especially point guards. The Heat are allowing the fifth-fewest points per game to the position this year (23.5). They’re on the wrong end of a back-to-back, but I still like the lower with Morant playing his third game in four days. 

🎯 Stephen Curry ⬇️ 25.5 points

Curry has been on a heater since the All-Star break, averaging 27 points per game over 17 appearances. But it's still wise to fade him in the Crypto.com Arena tonight.

The Los Angeles Lakers rank second in both points allowed per game to point guards (21.7) and 3-pointers given up to the position (2.7) over the last 15 contests.

The Lakers’ surprisingly sound defense, coupled with their below-average pace of play, makes this lower particularly enticing. It helps that both teams are on the front end of a back-to-back set, so minutes could be a bit weird in this spot if either side earns a significant early lead.

🎯 Scottie Barnes ⬇️ 17.5 points

This pick is a bit tricky since Scottie Barnes is questionable. But he's a major fade candidate if Barnes does suit up for tonight’s game when the Toronto Raptors take on the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Blazers and rising star Toumani Camara rank a surprising 10th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break (112.1). They also sit fourth in points per game allowed to small forwards and second to power forwards across their last 15 outings.

Meanwhile, Barnes is averaging only 17.2 points per game since the pause, including a mere 16-point showing against the same Trail Blazers. That's all coming despite the absence of high-usage teammate RJ Barrett. Barnes will still get some good looks, but he'll likely pass more and shoot less with Camara and Co. breathing down his neck.

🎯 Jordan Poole ⬇️ 17.5 points

Jordan Poole is averaging 19 points per game since the All-Star break, a massive uptick from the 15.6 he was putting up before midseason. But that doesn’t reflect an increase in underlying volume. Poole is averaging 13.3 field-goal attempts per game, down from the 14 he averaged beforehand. Instead, his production is coming from a major increase in efficiency.

We’re fading Poole because he's shooting an impressive but unsustainable 47% from the field since the break. He shot 41.3% from the floor last season and 43% the year prior. His most efficient season featured him making just 44.8% of his shots. Regression is on the horizon, and what better spot to project him for it than against the third-slowest team since the pause?

🎯 Rui Hachimura ⬆️ 11.5 points

The Warriors run a smaller lineup, so the Lakers will likely pivot away from Jaxson Hayes early, opening some more looks for Rui Hachimura near the rim. When these teams last met–before Luka Doncic joined the Lakers–Hachimura played 39 minutes while Hayes was featured for just 25. Hachimura didn’t stuff the stat sheet, but he tallied 11 points despite shooting 1-for-5 from deep.

With the Warriors now needing to focus their attention on stopping LeBron James and Doncic, the role players–and especially Hachimura–should experience an increase in shot volume, especially with another game on tap for tomorrow. Hachimura tallied 17 points in 39 minutes versus the Charlotte Hornets the last time he played during the front leg of a back-to-back.

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