NBA Rookie of the Year Odds After the All-Star Game: Odds Entering 2nd Half of Season
There's as much buzz as ever about San Antonio Spurs rookie Stephon Castle coming out of the All-Star break.
He leads the NBA Rookie of the Year odds after the All-Star Game, and Castle managed to reach the NBA Dunk Contest finals against Mac McClung on Saturday after taking home the Rising Stars MVP on Friday.
He's safely the NBA Rookie of the Year odds contender to beat in a race that may not remain wide open for much longer.
NBA Rookie of the Year odds after All-Star Game
Live NBA Rookie of the Year odds from our best NBA betting sites.
Stephon Castle NBA Rookie of the Year odds (+140)
2024-25 stats (per game): 12.9 points, 3.5 assists, 2.8 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 0.3 blocks
The buzz about Castle is palpable after a strong All-Star weekend from the No. 4 pick in the NBA draft. Anthony Edwards was praising him and saying his "potential is scary" just days after Castle overtook Kel'el Ware as the favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year Award.
With the way the UConn product has been playing in February (18 points per game in seven outings), it's hard to imagine anyone jumping him as we reach the home stretch of the regular season. He easily leads all rookies in points (657), sits third in assists (181), and Castle appears to be getting better.
He's registered 20-plus points eight times (53.3%) over Castle's last 15 games. In his first 36 games, That comes after he accomplished the feat just four times over his first 36 outings (11.1%). He's averaging 18.1 points per game during that 15-game stretch, which puts him well above the injured Jared McCain (15.3 PPG), who leads all rookies in PPG.
Castle is the league's best rookie scoring threat with McCain done for the season, and history says if you aren't putting up double-digit points per game, the NBA Rookie of the Year Award is out of reach. No rookie has ever won the award averaging fewer than 10.2 points per game since the award began being recognized in 1952-53.
The current rookie class hasn't been special, so there's only three other healthy players averaging double-digit points per game. All three of them are averaging 11.4 points or fewer. Just two rookies have won the award averaging so few points - Malcolm Brogdon in 2016-17 (10.2) and Monk Meineke in 1952-53 (10.7).
I don't see how he doesn't win the award if Castle stays healthy. And playing with NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite Victor Wembanyama certainly helps him get the media attention that can be needed to win an unclear award race like this one.
Kel'el Ware NBA Rookie of the Year odds (+350)
2024-25 stats (per game): 8.6 points, 0.8 assists, 5.8 rebounds, 0.6 steals, 1.0 blocks
Even in what everyone knew would be a weak NBA Rookie of the Year odds race, I'm not sure anyone on the planet expected Kel'el Ware to be in the thick of it. And he wasn't really until January.
Ware took the court just 10 times over the Miami Heat's first 25 games while scoring a total of 24 points. Then Erik Spoelstra began deploying him as part of the team's rotation in late December before Ware absolutely exploded in January with six performances featuring 19-plus points.
The No. 15 pick out of Indiana averaged 13 points per game and 6.9 rebounds per game in January to take home NBA Rookie of the Month honors in the Eastern Conference. He's continued to put up impressive numbers in February too, with 9.3 points per game and 10.4 rebounds. However, he offers the worst value on the board.
Firstly, he barely touched the court for two months. I also don't think he'll score enough to put up double-digit points per game, or at least not enough to produce numbers near what Castle could potentially post in the second half of the season. Plus, his team is getting far longer NBA championship odds than the rookies he's competing with on the Memphis Grizzlies.
Several rookie bigs have been impactful rebounders and shot blockers this season, and they're all getting far longer odds than Ware. You have to look at the season in totality when it comes to awards, and how much better has Ware been than Zach Edey (+1700), Donovan Clingan (+4000), and Yves Missi (+15000)?
Zaccharie Risacher NBA Rookie of the Year odds (+750)
2024-25 stats (per game): 11.4 points, 1.2 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks
What's working against Zaccharie Risacher's chances of winning NBA Rookie of the Year the most is that he went No. 1 overall in the draft, and it already looks like there's no path to him developing into an All-Star.
Unlike the 2025 NBA Draft odds with Cooper Flagg destined to be the next face of a franchise, the Atlanta Hawks didn't get a no-brainer option last year with their pick. Beating the narrative of being the Andrea Bargnani of a draft is going to be nearly impossible for Risacher unless he takes his game to another level during the second half of the season.
While he's been much better lately after shooting below 30% over his first 33 games in the NBA and averaging 10.8 points per game, Risacher is still lacking a string of consistent performances that make viewers understand why he was selected with the first pick.
Risacher has logged just two games over 18 points this season, and he's registered more games with fewer than 10 points (17) than outings with 15-plus (12). He's just nowhere near the offensive threat that Castle is becoming, and Risacher can't lean on his rebounding and rim-protecting to stay in this race the way Ware can as a big.
If you want to back a wing that can score and shoot threes at a consistent clip, Grizzlies' second-round pick Jaylen Wells (+950) is getting longer NBA Rookie of the Year odds, but he's second in points behind Castle (605), first in threes (100), and tied for first in win shares (2.9).
But the player he's tied with is the best option to bet beyond Castle.
Zach Edey NBA Rookie of the Year odds (+1700)
2024-25 stats (per game): 9.5 points, 0.9 assists, 7.6 rebounds, 0.7 steals, 1.2 blocks
Wells is tied with teammate Zach Edey for the most win shares among NBA rookies this season, and they're the only two with over 2.5. So while Edey isn't hitting the double-digit point threshold yet, he's the best non-Castle play (but don't get me wrong, Castle is taking home this award.)
The two-time Wooden Award winner is the only rookie averaging more than nine points per game and over seven rebounds per matchup this season. Also, his 1.2 blocks per game put him fourth among rookies, and he's posted the third-best defensive rating among first-year players (108.3).
So he's the best defender among bigs in this rookie class and Edey is among the top rebounders. It also doesn't hurt that he's playing on one of the NBA's best teams, with the Grizzlies sitting second in the Western Conference.
The only two problems are that he missed 14 games in November and December - so Edey can't really afford to miss much more time this season - and the Canadian hasn't been a consistent scorer.
In January, the month when he played his most games (14), Edey put up only 6.9 points per game while playing his fewest minutes per contest (19.0). Did fatigue get to the 7-foot-4 big? And will Taylor Jenkins continue to pace his the rookie's play?
If you take out the month of January, Edey is averaging 10.8 points per game and 8.3 rebounds. If he can finish the season with numbers close to that, Edey could take home NBA Rookie of the Year, though hitting double-digit points per game for the season will be paramount.
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