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2024 Oscars Long-Shot Predictions: Upsets to Watch During Academy Awards

Philip Wood

Last Updated: March 10, 2024 6:26 PM EDT • 3 min 22 sec read.

Emma Stone on the red carpet at the 96th Oscars at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood in Los Angeles on Sunday, March 10, 2024.

Oppenheimer is favored to win big across the Oscars' main categories, but there are opportunities for upsets in some categories ahead of Sunday's awards show.

Will we see any surprises at the 96th Academy Awards, which air Sunday at 7 p.m.? Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer is expected to take home as many as 13 awards, while Poor Things (11 nominations) and Killers of the Flower Moon (10) will surely be in the mix, too.

Other films nominated in multiple categories include the box-office sensation Barbie and smaller indie films The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest, and Anatomy of a Fall. Which categories present the best chances of an upset on Oscar night?

To complement our breakdown of the 2024 Oscars odds and predictions and our Oscars best bets, here are our Oscars long-shot predictions for the 2024 Academy Awards based on the odds from our best sports betting sites.

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Academy Awards upset predictions

Best Actress winner: Emma Stone (+165 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Favorite: Lily Gladstone

Stone and Gladstone have been neck and neck throughout the awards season, with each picking up huge wins. The two performances couldn’t be more different, as Stone gives an over-the-top performance as a woman learning to be a woman in her modern world, while Gladstone is much more subtle in her role as Mollie Kyle.

After Gladstone won the Screen Actors Guild award, she shot to the lead as the favorite, but that doesn’t mean this is a lock. Though the last two actresses to win the SAG for Lead Actress also won the Oscar, Viola Davis won for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom three years ago before losing to Frances McDormand for Nomadland at the Oscars.

What hurts Gladstone most is the addition of Sandra Huller for Anatomy of a Fall. Huller wasn’t nominated for the SAG but enters the Oscars with a lot of momentum and a powerhouse performance. Her performance is more similar to Gladstone’s than Stone’s, so the voters who do select Huller to win are likely taking votes away from Gladstone. In a close race, Stone will narrowly escape with the win.

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Best Adapted Screenplay winner: Barbie (+500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

Favorite: American Fiction

Barbie is likely the weakest screenplay in this stacked category, but this is the one major award that the biggest film of 2023 can legitimately win.

Many believe Greta Gerwig was snubbed of a Best Director nomination. Therefore, with her getting the nomination in this category, alongside her husband Noah Baumbach, Academy voters could vote for her as a way of honoring her directing as well.

The favorite in this category is Cord Jefferson's American Fiction. While the film is a crowd-pleaser, it’s simply not as popular as Barbie. Poor Things, Oppenheimer, and The Zone of Interest are all better known for other aspects of their film. So, in a two-horse race, take the more popular film at excellent odds.

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Best Sound winner: The Zone of Interest (+160 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Favorite: Oppenheimer

The remaining major categories are going to go chalk, so for our last pick, we’re going with a category that is being overlooked this year.

There is no denying how incredible the sound in Oppenheimer is. The silence before the initial explosion of the atomic bomb, followed by one of the loudest noises you’ll hear in a film, is incredible. And, in typical Nolan fashion, the score, dialogue, and on-screen noises all work together to create intensity from start to finish of the three-hour epic.

But this category should be won by The Zone of Interest. In the film, you don’t see horrors take place; you hear them. As the main characters of the film go about their everyday lives, gunshots, screaming, and other horrors are heard in the distance. And what makes it all the more disturbing is the characters never even react to the noises they’re hearing.

The Zone of Interest is a bold and disturbing film that is unlike anything else you’ll see or hear this year. Oppenheimer could win just because it’s the bigger film, but getting The Zone of Interest at +150 or better is worth looking at because it should leave Sunday with this award.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.