Best 2025 Daytona 500 Prop Bets Today: NASCAR Expert Picks & Predictions
The most popular show on asphalt begins at 1:30 p.m. ET, and we’re here to discuss our 2025 Daytona 500 prop bets for this year’s action.
After a highly entertaining pair of Duel races on Thursday night, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney are among the favorites. The green flag will wave at 1:30 p.m. ET this afternoon, so here are our NASCAR bets and expert picks for the first official Cup Series race of the season at Daytona International Speedway.
Want AI-powered insights? Check out our Daytona 500 AI predictions, where ChatGPT forecasts every driver's finishing position.
Who is favored to win Daytona 500?
So, who is supposed to win this year’s Great American Race? While other motorsports like F1 have clear-cut favorites in their big events, the same isn’t true of NASCAR and Daytona.
The drafting required at Daytona opens up opportunities for all sorts of drivers to find victory lane. Last year, William Byron, a big-name driver, won the Daytona 500. But longshot Harrison Burton won the summer night race a few months later.
As a result, the favorite for any race at Daytona generally varies between the best sports betting apps. Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin are co-favorites at DraftKings. Busch is the lone favorite at Caesars, and he shares the top spot with Ryan Blaney at BetMGM.
Daytona 500 odds & favorites
Here are the latest Daytona 500 odds and favorites at BetMGM to win Sunday's race at 1:30 p.m. ET. Be sure to follow the rest of our NASCAR picks ahead of the Daytona 500, and head over to our Daytona 500 predictions.
- Ryan Blaney, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
- Kyle Busch, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
- Joey Logano, +1300 ($10 to win $130)
- Brad Keselowski, +1400 ($10 to win $140)
- Denny Hamlin, +1400 ($10 to win $140)
- Kyle Larson, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
- William Byron, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
- Chase Elliott, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
- Chris Buescher, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
- Austin Cindric, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
- Bubba Wallace, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
- Christopher Bell, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
- Chase Briscoe, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
- Todd Gilliland, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
- Tyler Reddick, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
- Alex Bowman, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
- Ross Chastain, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
- Ty Gibbs, +3500 ($10 to win $350)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr, +3500 ($10 to win $350)
- Michael McDowell, +3500 ($10 to win $350)
- Noah Gragson, +3500 ($10 to win $350)
- Josh Berry, +3500 ($10 to win $350)
- Ryan Preece, +3500 ($10 to win $350)
- Austin Dillon, +4000 ($10 to win $400)
- Erik Jones, +4000 ($10 to win $400)
- Martin Truex Jr., +4000 ($10 to win $400)
- Daniel Suarez, +5000 ($10 to win $500)
- AJ Allmendinger, +5000 ($10 to win $500)
- Justin Haley, +6000 ($10 to win $600)
- Cole Custer, +6000 ($10 to win $600)
- Carson Hocevar, +6000 ($10 to win $600)
- Riley Herbst, +6000 ($10 to win $600)
- Zane Smith, +6000 ($10 to win $600)
- Corey Lajoie, +6000 ($10 to win $600)
- Justin Allgaier, +6000 ($10 to win $600)
- Ty Dillon, +8000 ($10 to win $800)
- Shane van Gisbergen, +8000 ($10 to win $800)
- John H. Nemechek, +8000 ($10 to win $800)
- Jimmie Johnson, +10000 ($10 to win $1000)
- Helio Castroneves, +25000 ($10 to win $2500)
- Cody Ware, +25000 ($10 to win $2500)
You can use our BetMGM bonus code, SBRBONUS, to claim up to $1,500 in bonus bets by placing a wager of any amount on the Daytona 500 or any other market!
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Daytona 500 prop picks & best NASCAR bets for Sunday
While betting on the outright winner is fun, you can get considerably better value on other markets that generally come with a lower hold. Here are the Daytona 500 props that make my list of the best NASCAR bets for Sunday’s event.
- Winning Manufacturer: Ford (+160 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Manufacturer Top 10s: Ford Over 3.5 (+110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Matchup: Kyle Busch (-115 via Caesars) vs. Kyle Larson ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Winning manufacturer: Ford (+160)
I back the Blue Ovals to win at every superspeedway. Why? Well, going back to 2022 - the start of the NextGen Era - Fords have led just over half of all laps on these tracks. If we take out 2022 and look at just the last two years, that number jumps to 64.5%.
A driver in a Ford has led the most laps in the last three Daytona 500s. As a manufacturer, Ford has led the majority of the last three Daytona 500s as well. While late-race chaos often tends to throw a wrench into things, if this race is run clean, Ford gets a better shot to win this race than the odds suggest.
Caesars is a 21+ product
Manufacturer top 10s: Ford Over 3.5 (+110)
This market is a fun new one at Caesars. Instead of wagering on individual drivers to finish in the top 10, we can bet on how many will meet that threshold from a specific manufacturer. With 13 Fords in a 41-car field, we could expect 3.2 Fords to make the top 10 in an average, randomized outcome.
But Caesars is charging only +110 for us to get over 3.5 Fords in the top 10, which seems low. Ford averaged 4.3 cars inside the top 10 per race over the last three editions of the Great American Race. Add in the three summer races here, and you get 4.3.
At least four Fords have finished inside the top 10 in five of the last six races held at Daytona International Speedway. The line for this wager should probably be four at pick’em odds, not 3.5 with the over at a generous +110.
Matchup: Kyle Busch (-115) vs. Kyle Larson
Although Kyle Larson is an incredibly talented driver, superspeedway racing just hasn’t been his thing. Larson has logged zero wins over 21 starts at Daytona, zero top-five finishes, and just five top-10 results with an average finish of 22. A similar pattern holds for Talladega, where he's registered an average finish of 21.9 over 20 starts.
Kyle Busch presents a different story. Superspeedways have been in his wheelhouse for a long time. Busch has recorded a win, nine top-five finishes, 13 top-10 outcomes, and an average result of 18.1 across 39 starts. He's also posted an average finish of 20.2 (and two wins) at Talladega over 39 starts.
These drivers shouldn’t be matched up with each other at these odds.
My best Daytona 500 long-shot bet
If you’re truly looking to throw a dart on a prop, the best Daytona 500 long-shot bet for your card has to be John Hunter Nemechek to score a top-five finish. He also makes sense as an outright winner at 100-1 through DraftKings.
- Top 5: John Hunter Nemechek (+1200 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Top 5: John Hunter Nemechek (+1200)
You can wager $10 on John Hunter Nemechek just to finish in the top five and make a $120 profit. Remember, it’s a 41-car field this year, so the raw odds of anyone finishing in the top five are 12.1%—far better than the implied odds of 7.7% available for Nemechek to do so at DraftKings.
While Nemechek and Legacy Motor Club struggled last year, superspeedways have been good to the young driver. He's logged an impressive average finish of 11th over four starts at Daytona. That's the best average result of any active driver with multiple starts.
If he can manage to keep his No. 42 Toyota out of trouble, Nemechek possesses the talent and discipline required to bring it home inside the top five. Of course, he'll probably need some help in the form of other drivers crashing out, but this number is too good to pass up.
💰 Daytona 500 odds & expert picks
- Daytona 500 odds
- Daytona 500 expert picks
- Daytona 500 predictions
- Daytona 500 prop bets
- Daytona 500 AI picks
- Daytona 500 long shots
- Kyle Busch Daytona 500 odds
How to bet on Daytona 500 props
If you haven’t bet on NASCAR (or just NASCAR props) before, you’ve been missing out! You can read my more general tips for how to bet on NASCAR and NASCAR betting strategy through my Substack, but here are my tips for how to bet on Daytona 500 props:
- Do the math! You should know the raw probability of an outcome to help you gauge the value of a specific line. The 2025 Daytona 500 features 41 drivers, so the raw odds of anyone winning are 2.4%. And the raw odds of a simple top 10 are 24.3%.
- Never overpay for a favorite. The Daytona 500 is highly variable, so just because a driver is talented at this type of track doesn’t necessarily mean they’re a good bet for the odds you’re getting.
- Mix in some long shots. Recent Daytona 500 winners include Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr., none of whom were favorites to win, let alone score good finishes. This race produces surprising outcomes, so don’t let long odds scare you!
- Don’t get so much action down that you can’t enjoy the race. Yes, it’s fun to sweat out bets, but the Daytona 500 is one of the best races of the year. If you’re sweating so much of your bankroll that you can’t have fun, you’re doing it wrong!
The theme of my NASCAR betting advice is simply to know what you’re getting into and to bet responsibly.
How to watch the 2025 Daytona 500
- Date: Sunday, Feb. 16
- Start time: 1:30 p.m. ET
- TV info: FOX
- Streaming: FOX Sports App
- Track: Daytona International Speedway (Daytona Beach, Fla.)
- Length: 200 laps, 500 total miles
Daytona 500 FAQs
Who is favored to win the Daytona 500?
Kyle Busch is favored to win the 2025 Daytona 500 with +1200 odds via BetMGM.
What time is the 2025 Daytona 500?
The Daytona 500 will start at 1:30 p.m. ET. It was originally scheduled to start at 2:30 p.m. ET, but the start has been moved up due to the threat of rain.
Who won the Daytona 500 last year?
William Byron won the Daytona 500 last year with pre-race odds of +1800.
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