Canadian Federal Election Odds: Favorite Conservatives Lose Ground
There's no date yet for the next Canadian Federal election, but that doesn't stop the Canadian Federal Election odds markets from taking shape.
Several sites offer odds on the 45th Canadian Federal election, including the winning party, when the election will be held, and who will form the official opposition.
Governor General Mary Simon has prorogued parliament until March 24 following Justin Trudeau's announcement of his intent to resign. Markets for the next permanent leader of the Liberals also cropped up following that announcement.
45th Canadian Federal Election betting odds
This market is set for the "Sworn in Government"
Odds via bet365 as of Feb. 18, 2025
| Party | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives (CPC) | -450 | 81.82% | $2.22 |
| Liberal Party (LPC) | +275 | 26.67% | $27.50 |
| New Democratic (NDP) | +8000 | 1.23% | $800 |
| Bloc Quebecois | +11000 | 0.90% | $1100 |
| Green Party | +60000 | 0.17% | $6000 |
| People's Party of Canada | +100000 | 0.10% | $10000 |
Latest Canadian Federal Election odds & news
- Feb. 18: Conservatives move from -600 to -450, Liberals from +350 to +275, on heels of Mark Carney's surge toward being the next Liberal leader
- Jan. 10: The Liberals announce they will name their new leader on March 9; The House of Commons is prorogued until March 24 to allow for the transition
- Jan. 6: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announces he'll resign as the leader of the Liberal Party when a replacement has been chosen
- De. 20: New Democratic leader Jagmeet Singh announces he would bring forth a non-confidence motion for the Liberals, a shift from previous instances in which the NDP backed the Liberals
- Dec. 16: Deputy prime minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland resigns
- Dec. 16: Housing minister Sean Fraser announces he will not seek re-election
- Dec. 8: The Liberals survive a third non-confidence vote as the Conservatives attempt to topple the government again but do not receive NDP support
Which party is the 45th Canadian Federal Election betting odds favorite?
Conservative (CPC) (-450)
The Conservative Party of Canada is the overwhelming front-runner to form the next government at our political betting sites in Canada.
While the CPC hasn't won a federal election since the Trudeau-led Liberals took over in 2015, it formed two minority governments (2006 and 2008) and a majority government (2011) in the not-too-distant past.
Polling shows the Liberals gaining ground on the Conservatives, but the CPC still carries a healthy 85.71% implied win probability to form the next government.
The last time the Liberals or CPC (or one of the historical predecessors of the two parties) wasn't leading the country was before the 1921 election. Even the party that ruled from 1917 to 1921 primarily consisted of MPs who had previously served under the Conservative banner.
Best odds: -450 via bet365 | Implied win probability: 81.82%
Terms and conditions apply.
Next permanent Liberal Party leader?
This market clearly states that "Temporary or Caretaker Leaders Do Not Count"
Odds as of Feb. 18, 2025.
| Name | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Carney | -750 | 88.24% | $1.33 |
| Chrystia Freeland | +390 | 20.41% | $39 |
| Karina Gould | +3700 | 2.63% | $370 |
| Frank Baylis | +3700 | 2.63% | $370 |
| Ruby Dhalla | +4800 | 2.04% | $480 |
- Feb. 11: Mark Carney is -750 at one of our top Ontario sports betting apps and therefore getting an implied win percentage as high as 88.24%.
- Jan. 14: Industry minister Francois-Philippe Champagne announces he will not run for party leader
- Jan. 14: Former British Columbia premier Christy Clark will not seek the leadership
- Jan. 13: Mark Carney is expected to formally announce his bid for the leadership on Jan. 16
- Jan. 13: Chrystia Freeland is expected to officially announce her bid for the Liberal leadership, a source told CBC News
- Jan. 11: Transport minster Anita Anand declares she will not enter the race
- Jan. 11: Minister of foreign affairs Melanie Joly declines to enter the race
What day will the 45th Canadian Federal Election be held?
With the election seemingly on the horizon, FanDuel Ontario offers the opportunity to bet on when Canadian voters will head to the polls.
Odds as of Feb. 18, 2025.
| Date | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter (Before or during February 2025) | +4700 | 2.08% | $470 |
| Spring (March-May 2025) | -390 | 79.59% | $2.56 |
| Summer (June-Sept 2025) | +200 | 33.33% | $20 |
| Fall (Sept- Oct. 19, 2025) | +470 | 17.54% | $47 |
| Scheduled date (Oct. 20, 2025) | +1300 | 7.14% | $130 |
Which party will form the official opposition?
It looks like the Conservative Party of Canada is set to capture the election and that change is coming for Canadians. But what party will act as the official opposition? FanDuel Ontario offers odds.
Odds as of Feb. 18, 2025.
| Party | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal (LPC) | -600 | 85.71% | $1.67 |
| Bloc Quebecois (BQ) | +370 | 21.28% | $37 |
| Any other party | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
Where can I bet on the Canadian Federal election?
You can bet on the Canadian Federal Election at our best Ontario sports betting apps and our political betting sites in Canada. You'll find selections generally under "Politics" or "Novelty."
We're starting to see extra markets emerge, such as the date of the election and which party will become the official opposition.
Canadian general federal election FAQs
Who is the favorite for the next Canadian federal election?
The Conservative Party of Canada is the favorite to win the next Canadian Federal Election, with odds of -450 representing an 81.82% implied win probability.
Who won the previous Canadian Federal election?
Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party were elected to a minority government in 2021 and have been in power since 2013.
When is the next Canadian Federal election?
The next Canadian Federal election will be on or before Oct. 20, 2025. A spring election is the favorite while getting -390 odds, offering a 79.59% implied probability.
Who will replace Justin Trudeau?
The Liberal Party will work to find a replacement for Justin Trudeau after the Prime Minister announced his intent to resign. Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, is the betting favorite at -750. The new leader will be announced on March 9.
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