Early Indianapolis 500 Predictions & Odds 2025: Favorites, Long Shots to Win Indianapolis 500
Our early Indianapolis 500 predictions and odds are the perfect place to be with the Super Bowl concluded. Even if its months away.
After finally finding victory lane in 2023, Josef Newgarden will look to make it three victories in a row this May. But if Newgarden is to pull it off, he’ll have to contend with his hungry Team Penske teammates and a stacked field that will include NASCAR champion Kyle Larson.
We won’t get to see another race on an oval before Indy, so the 109th running of the event will be tricky to handicap both now and later.
Indianapolis 500 predictions
- Indianapolis 500 favorite pick: Josef Newgarden (+700 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Indianapolis 500 contender pick: Santino Ferrucci (+1800 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Indianapolis 500 long-shot pick: David Malukas (+3000 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Our new player props odds tool can help you find the best odds on contender you wish to back!
Indianapolis 500 odds
Indianapolis 500 odds via DraftKings.
- Josef Newgarden: +700
- Pato O'Ward: +800
- Kyle Larson: +900
- Alex Palou: +1000
- Scott Dixon: +1000
- Scott McLaughlin: +1000
- Will Power: +1200
- Alexander Rossi: +1200
- Colton Herta: +1400
- Santino Ferrucci: +1600
- Helio Castroneves: +2000
- Marcus Ericsson: +2000
- Kyle Kirkwood: +2000
- Conor Daly: +2000
- David Malukas: +2000
- Felix Rosenqvist: +2500
- Takuma Sato: +3000
- Rinus Veekay: +3000
- Ed Carpenter: +4000
- Graham Rahal: +4000
- Ryan Hunter-Reay: +4000
- Christian Lundgaard: +4000
- Louis Foster: +6000
- Marco Andretti: +6000
- Marcus Armstrong: +6000
- Jack Harvey: +7000
- Callum Ilott: +7000
- Christian Rasmussen: +8000
- Sting Ray Robb: +10000
- Nolan Siegel: +10000
- Kyffin Simpson: +10000
- Devlin DeFrancesco: +10000
- Jacob Abel: +15000
- Robert Shwartzman: +15000
Indianapolis 500 odds analysis
- The 2023 and 2024 Indianapolis 500 winner, Josef Newgarden, is an unsurprising favorite to win this year’s running of the event with odds as short as 5/1
- Newgarden’s full-time teammates at Team Penske, Scott McLaughlin (10/1) and Will Power (12/1) aren’t far behind him
- NASCAR star Kyle Larson didn’t score a great result in last year’s race, but he showed excellent speed and car control and is 12/1 at BetMGM
- Reigning IndyCar Series champion Alex Palou has never won the Indianapolis 500, but his odds are a short 10-1
Early picks to win Indianapolis 500
Indianapolis 500 favorite pick: Josef Newgarden
Best odds: +700 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 12.5%
It feels square to take the favorite for this race, but let’s be honest, Newgarden cares about little else in life than winning the Greatest Spectacle in Racing. He made an incredibly risky move (that has since been banned) to win in 2023, and with Team Penske mostly running the show at ovals, he’ll have a car capable of getting it done.
I favor Newgarden at 7/1 over his Team Penske teammates, McLaughlin (10/1) and Power (12/1), but, by the time more markets open for this race, I could easily see myself foregoing an outright wager on Newgarden and instead betting on Penske on the winning team market.
Indianapolis 500 contender pick: Santino Ferrucci
Best odds: +1800 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 5.26%
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If you’re not a dedicated IndyCar fan, you may not know that Team Penske and A.J. Foyt Racing, the team that Santino Ferrucci drives for, have a close technical alliance. The pact helped the struggling Foyt team make some improvements last year, and I’m optimistic about their odds heading into the second full season of the deal.
Ferrucci is one of the best drivers at the Indianapolis 500, never finishing worse than 10th in six starts for underfunded teams. He scored a podium result in 2022 and may have a better shot to win this race outright than his odds suggest -- especially if Foyt can take the next step in 2025.
Indianapolis 500 longshot pick: David Malukas
Best odds: +3000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 3.23%
While David Malukas’ odds are slightly shorter than I’d like, the 30/1 at BetMGM is my favorite long-shot pick for the Indianapolis 500 simply because I don’t see most drivers further down the board as having a real shot to win.
No one except Takuma Sato, Tony Kanaan, and Helio Castroneves has won for a team other than Andretti, Penske, or Ganassi since Dan Wheldon in 2011.
Malukas will replace Sting Ray Robb in the second AJ Foyt car this season, which gives him the same equipment and Penske connection that Ferrucci has. While Malukas doesn’t have the same impressive resume at Indianapolis as Ferrucci, the 30/1 is a steal relative to the rest of the market: FanDuel (24/1), DraftKings (20/1), and Caesars (18/1) are all much higher on the 23-year-old Lithuanian-American.
Indianapolis 500 FAQs
Who is the favorite for the Indianapolis 500?
Josef Newgarden, who has won the last two Indianapolis 500s, is the betting favorite to win this year’s running. No one has ever won three in a row.
When is the Indianapolis 500?
The Indianapolis 500 is held every Memorial Day weekend. This year, it will run at 12:45 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 25.
Where is the Indianapolis 500?
The 2-mile Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Speedway, Indiana, hosts the Indianapolis 500 each year.
Who won the Indianapolis 500 last year?
Josef Newgarden won the Indianapolis 500 last year.
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